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The Output-Inflation Trade-off in African Less Developed Countries

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  • Mark J. Holmes

    (Department of Economics, Loughborough University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the nature of the short-run output-inflation trade-off and policy effectiveness in African less developed countries. Using a sample of thirteen countries over the period 1960-98, cointegration and error correction modelling suggest that the impacts on inflation and real output growth from a shock to nominal aggregate demand will be of the ratio one-sixth to five-sixths. Furthermore, this study finds that the short-run potency of demand-side policy on inflation (real output growth) is positively (inversely) related to the variability of nominal income shocks rather than the underlying rate of inflation. While the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium between price and nominal output is fairly sluggish, it is concluded that the New Classical perspective on the trade-off is applicable in the case of African economies. The New Keynesian perspective, which emphasises wage and price rigidities and policy effectiveness, is probably of lesser relevance.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark J. Holmes, 2000. "The Output-Inflation Trade-off in African Less Developed Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 41-55, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:25:y:2000:i:1:p:41-55
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jan Willem Gunning & Paul Collier, 1999. "Explaining African Economic Performance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 64-111, March.
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    5. Addison, John T. & Chappell, Henry Jr. & Castro, Alberto C., 1986. "Output-inflation tradeoffs in 34 countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 353-360, December.
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    9. Peter Liu, 1992. "Purchasing power parity in Latin America: A co-integration analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(4), pages 662-680, December.
    10. Akhand A. Hossain & Anis Chowdhury, 1998. "Open-Economy Macroeconomics for Developing Countries," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 831, April.
    11. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    12. MJ Holmes, 2000. "Does purchasing power parity hold in African less developed countries? Evidence from a panel data unit root test," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 9(1), pages 63-78.
    13. Fernandez, Roque B, 1977. "An Empirical Inquiry on the Short-Run Dynamics of Output and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 595-609, September.
    14. Attfield, Clifford L F & Duck, Nigel W, 1983. "The Influence of Unanticipated Money Growth on Real Output: Some Cross-Country Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(4), pages 442-454, November.
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