IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jas/jasssj/2005-57-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparison of Eurovision Song Contest Simulation with Actual Results Reveals Shifting Patterns of Collusive Voting Alliances

Author

Abstract

The voting patterns in the Eurovision Song Contest have attracted attention from various researchers, spawning a small cross-disciplinary field of what might be called 'eurovisiopsephology' incorporating insights from politics, sociology and computer science. Although the outcome of the contest is decided using a simple electoral system, its single parameter - the number of countries casting a vote - varies from year to year. Analytical identification of statistically significant trends in voting patterns over a period of several years is therefore mathematically complex. Simulation provides a method for reconstructing the contest's history using Monte Carlo methods. Comparison of simulated histories with the actual history of the contest allows the identification of statistically significant changes in patterns of voting behaviour, without requiring a full mathematical solution. In particular, the period since the mid-90s has seen the emergence of large geographical voting blocs from previously small voting partnerships, which initially appeared in the early 90s. On at least two occasions, the outcome of the contest has been crucially affected by voting blocs. The structure of these blocs implies that a handful of centrally placed countries have a higher probability of being future winners.

Suggested Citation

  • Derek Gatherer, 2006. "Comparison of Eurovision Song Contest Simulation with Actual Results Reveals Shifting Patterns of Collusive Voting Alliances," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 9(2), pages 1-1.
  • Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2005-57-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/9/2/1/1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stratmann, Thomas, 1992. "The Effects of Logrolling on Congressional Voting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1162-1176.
    2. Marco Haan & S. Dijkstra & Peter Dijkstra, 2005. "Expert Judgment Versus Public Opinion – Evidence from the Eurovision Song Contest," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, pages 59-78.
    3. Crombez, Christophe, 2000. "Spatial models of logrolling in the European Union," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 707-737, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ginsburgh, Victor & Noury, Abdul G., 2008. "The Eurovision Song Contest. Is voting political or cultural?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 41-52, March.
    2. Felbermayr, Gabriel J. & Toubal, Farid, 2010. "Cultural proximity and trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, pages 279-293.
    3. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00641280 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Frank, Björn & Krabel, Stefan, 2013. "Gens una sumus?!—Or does political ideology affect experts’ esthetic judgment of chess games?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 66-78.
    5. repec:kap:jculte:v:41:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10824-016-9272-y is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:kap:jculte:v:41:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10824-016-9277-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Oliver Budzinski & Julia Pannicke, 2017. "Culturally biased voting in the Eurovision Song Contest: Do national contests differ?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, pages 343-378.
    8. Sofronis Clerides & Thanasis Stengos, 2012. "Love thy Neighbour, Love Thy Kin: Strategy and Bias in the Eurovision Song Contest," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 15(1), pages 22-44, Summer.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2005-57-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Flaminio Squazzoni). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.