IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ordeca/v8y2011i1p4-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Partial-Kelly Strategies and Expected Utility: Small-Edge Asymptotics

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph B. Kadane

    (Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213)

Abstract

Partial-Kelly strategies, proposed because full-Kelly strategies that use log of fortune as utility were found to be too risky, are examined from the perspective of maximizing expected utility. The results are as follows: (1) there is no utility function that is independent of the risks it confronts and that exactly has partial-Kelly strategies as the optimal strategy; and (2) constant relative risk aversion utility, with the constant relative risk parameter equal to the reciprocal of the partial-Kelly parameter, is a good approximation to such a utility function, particularly when the investor's edge is small.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph B. Kadane, 2011. "Partial-Kelly Strategies and Expected Utility: Small-Edge Asymptotics," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 4-9, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:8:y:2011:i:1:p:4-9
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1100.0197
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/deca.1100.0197
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/deca.1100.0197?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul A. Samuelson, 2011. "Why We Should Not Make Mean Log of Wealth Big Though Years to Act Are Long," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 34, pages 491-493, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. L. C. MacLean & W. T. Ziemba & G. Blazenko, 1992. "Growth Versus Security in Dynamic Investment Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(11), pages 1562-1585, November.
    3. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
    4. John Burr Williams, 1936. "Speculation and the Carryover," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 50(3), pages 436-455.
    5. Andrew Grant & David Johnstone & Oh Kang Kwon, 2008. "Optimal Betting Strategies for Simultaneous Games," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(1), pages 10-18, March.
    6. Hakansson, Nils H, 1970. "Optimal Investment and Consumption Strategies Under Risk for a Class of Utility Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(5), pages 587-607, September.
    7. Medo, Matúš & Pis’mak, Yury M. & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2008. "Diversification and limited information in the Kelly game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(24), pages 6151-6158.
    8. Matus Medo & Yury M. Pis'mak & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2008. "Diversification and limited information in the Kelly game," Papers 0803.1364, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2008.
    9. Yuming Li, 1993. "Growth-Security Investment Strategy for Long and Short Runs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(8), pages 915-924, August.
    10. MacLean, Leonard C. & Sanegre, Rafael & Zhao, Yonggan & Ziemba, William T., 2004. "Capital growth with security," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 937-954, February.
    11. MOSSIN, Jan, 1968. "Optimal multiperiod portfolio policies," LIDAM Reprints CORE 19, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2011. "From the Editors---Deterrence, Multiattribute Utility, and Probability and Bayes' Updating," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(2), pages 83-87, June.
    2. Rose D. Baker & Ian G. McHale, 2013. "Optimal Betting Under Parameter Uncertainty: Improving the Kelly Criterion," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 189-199, September.
    3. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & J. Eric Bickel & Vicki M. Bier & David V. Budescu & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Jason R. W. Merrick & Ahti Salo & George Wu, 2011. "From the Editors ---Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(4), pages 251-255, December.
    4. David J Johnstone, 2023. "Capital budgeting and Kelly betting," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 48(3), pages 625-651, August.
    5. Andrew Grant & David Johnstone & Oh Kang Kwon, 2019. "A Probability Scoring Rule for Simultaneous Events," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 301-313, December.
    6. D. J. Johnstone & S. Jones & V. R. R. Jose & M. Peat, 2013. "Measures of the economic value of probabilities of bankruptcy," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(3), pages 635-653, June.
    7. Baker, Rose D. & McHale, Ian G., 2013. "Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 122-130.
    8. Rakesh K. Sarin, 2013. "From the Editor —Optimal Betting, Reducing Unnecessary Mammography in Breast Cancer Diagnosis, Product Line Design, and Value of Information," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 187-188, September.
    9. L. Robin Keller, 2011. "Investment and Defense Strategies, Heuristics, and Games: From the Editor ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 1-3, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rose D. Baker & Ian G. McHale, 2013. "Optimal Betting Under Parameter Uncertainty: Improving the Kelly Criterion," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 189-199, September.
    2. David J. Johnstone, 2007. "The Parimutuel Kelly Probability Scoring Rule," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(2), pages 66-75, June.
    3. Sagara Dewasurendra & Pedro Judice & Qiji Zhu, 2019. "The Optimum Leverage Level of the Banking Sector," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-30, May.
    4. Ziemba, William, 2016. "A response to Professor Paul A. Samuelson's objections to Kelly capital growth investing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119002, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. G. Bottazzi & D. Giachini, 2019. "Far from the madding crowd: collective wisdom in prediction markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 1461-1471, September.
    6. Andrew Grant & David Johnstone & Oh Kang Kwon, 2008. "Optimal Betting Strategies for Simultaneous Games," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(1), pages 10-18, March.
    7. Traian A. Pirvu & Gordan Zitkovic, 2007. "Maximizing the Growth Rate under Risk Constraints," Papers 0706.0480, arXiv.org.
    8. Scholz, Peter, 2012. "Size matters! How position sizing determines risk and return of technical timing strategies," CPQF Working Paper Series 31, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, Centre for Practical Quantitative Finance (CPQF).
    9. Grant, Andrew & Johnstone, David, 2010. "Finding profitable forecast combinations using probability scoring rules," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 498-510, July.
    10. Traian A. Pirvu & Gordan Žitković, 2009. "Maximizing The Growth Rate Under Risk Constraints," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 423-455, July.
    11. David J Johnstone, 2023. "Capital budgeting and Kelly betting," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 48(3), pages 625-651, August.
    12. Constantinos Kardaras, 2009. "Num\'{e}raire-invariant preferences in financial modeling," Papers 0903.3736, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2010.
    13. Hubáček, Ondřej & Šír, Gustav, 2023. "Beating the market with a bad predictive model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 691-719.
    14. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    15. Jan Lorenz & Fabian Paetzel & Frank Schweitzer, 2013. "Redistribution Spurs Growth by Using a Portfolio Effect on Risky Human Capital," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-13, February.
    16. Post, Thomas & Gründl, Helmut & Schmit, Joan & Zimmer, Anja, 2008. "The impact of individual investment behavior for retirement welfare: Evidence from the United States and Germany," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-037, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    17. Athar Iqbal & Akhtiar Ali & Peter Xavier D’Abreo, 2017. "Fama And French Three Factor Model Application In The Pakistan Stock Exchange (Pse)," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11.
    18. Paolo Laureti & Matus Medo & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2010. "Analysis of Kelly-optimal portfolios," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 689-697.
    19. Andrew Grant & David Johnstone & Oh Kang Kwon, 2019. "A Probability Scoring Rule for Simultaneous Events," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 301-313, December.
    20. Sonntag, Dominik, 2018. "Die Theorie der fairen geometrischen Rendite [The Theory of Fair Geometric Returns]," MPRA Paper 87082, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:8:y:2011:i:1:p:4-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.