Size matters! How position sizing determines risk and return of technical timing strategies
The application of a technical trading rule, which just provides long and short signals, requires the investor to decide upon the exposure to stake in each trade. Although this position sizing (or money management) crucially affects the risk and return characteristics, recent academic literature has largely ignored this effect, leaving reported results incomparable. This work systematically analyzes the impact of position sizing on timing strategies and clarifies the relation to the Kelly criterion, which proposes to bet relative fractions from the remaining gambling budget. Both erratic as well as different relative positions, i.e. fixed proportions of the remaining portfolio value, are compared for simple moving average trading rules. The simulation of parametrized return series allows systematically varying those asset price properties, which are most in uential on timing results: drift, volatility, and autocorrelation. The study reveals that the introduction of relative position sizing has a severe impact on trading results compared to erratic positions. In contrast to a standard Kelly framework, however, an optimal position size does not exist. Interestingly, smaller trading fractions deliver the highest risk-adjusted returns in most scenarios.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 069 154008-0
Web page: http://www.frankfurt-school.de/content/en/cpqf
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- MacLean, Leonard C. & Sanegre, Rafael & Zhao, Yonggan & Ziemba, William T., 2004. "Capital growth with security," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 937-954, February.
- Merton, Robert C. & Samuelson, Paul A., 1974. "Fallacy of the log-normal approximation to optimal portfolio decision-making over many periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 67-94, May.
- Zhu, Yingzi & Zhou, Guofu, 2009. "Technical analysis: An asset allocation perspective on the use of moving averages," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 519-544, June.
- Suzanne Fifield & David Power & C. Donald Sinclair, 2005. "An analysis of trading strategies in eleven European stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 531-548.
- L. C. MacLean & W. T. Ziemba & G. Blazenko, 1992. "Growth Versus Security in Dynamic Investment Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(11), pages 1562-1585, November.
- Samuelson, Paul A, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 239-46, August.
- Marc Potters & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2005.
"Trend followers lose more often than they gain,"
Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive
500065, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- Samuelson, Paul A., 1979. "Why we should not make mean log of wealth big though years to act are long," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-307, December.
- John Anderson & Robert Faff, 2004. "Maximizing futures returns using fixed fraction asset allocation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(15), pages 1067-1073.
- Henry Allen Latane, 1959. "Criteria for Choice Among Risky Ventures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67, pages 144.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cpqfwp:31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.