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La Vulnerabilidad Fiscal del Gasto Social: ¿Es diferente América Latina?

  • Eduardo Lora

    ()

    (Gerente del Departamento de Investigación y Economista Jefe (a.i.), Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. 1350 New York Avenue NW, Washington D.C., U.S.A.)

An unbalanced panel data of around fifty countries between 1985 and 2003 is used to estimate the vulnerability of public social expenditures (health and education) to other fiscal variables. The database allows comparisons between Latin America and the rest of developing countries. Public social expenditure is significantly lower in Latin America as share of GDP, although it has a higher share in primary expenditure. Public social expenditures in Latin America are more vulnerable to debt service, but are less sensible to changes in other types of public expenditure. As in other regions in the developing world, public social expenditure in Latin America shrinks when public debt stock increases. This effect is higher with multilateral debt obligations. In Latin America, debt defaults reduce the share of public social expenditures in total primary public expenditure.

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Article provided by Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines in its journal Revista de Analisis Economico.

Volume (Year): 24 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (Junio)
Pages: 3-20

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Handle: RePEc:ila:anaeco:v:24:y:2009:i:1:p:3-20
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  1. Eduardo Lora, 2007. "Public Investment in Infrastructure in Latin America: Is Debt the Culprit?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6727, Inter-American Development Bank.
  2. Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2006. "Public Debt around the World: A New Dataset of Central Government Debt," Research Department Publications 4461, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  3. Lora, Eduardo & Olivera, Mauricio, 2007. "Public debt and social expenditure: Friends or foes?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 299-310, December.
  4. Mahdavi, Saeid, 2004. "Shifts in the Composition of Government Spending in Response to External Debt Burden," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1139-1157, July.
  5. Mauro, Paolo, 1998. "Corruption and the composition of government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 263-279, June.
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