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La vulnerabilidad fiscal del gasto social: ¿Es Diferente América Latina?

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  • Eduardo Lora

Abstract

Se utiliza un panel desbalanceado de medio centenar de países para el período 1985-2003 con el objeto de evaluar la vulnerabilidad del gasto público social (en educación y salud) frente a las variables fiscales corrientes y la deuda pública en América Latina en comparación con el resto del mundo en desarrollo. El gasto social es significativamente más bajo en América Latina (aunque absorbe una proporción mayor del gasto primario) y es más vulnerable frente a mayores pagos de intereses de la deuda, pero más insensible a las variaciones del resto del gasto público. Como en otras regiones del mundo en desarrollo, el gasto social en América Latina se contrae con los aumentos de deuda pública, y aún más si se trata de deudas con la banca multilateral. A diferencia del resto del mundo, en América Latina los incumplimientos de deuda llevan a reducir la participación del gasto social en el gasto público.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Lora, 2007. "La vulnerabilidad fiscal del gasto social: ¿Es Diferente América Latina?," Research Department Publications 4506, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4506
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eduardo Lora, 2007. "Public Investment in Infrastructure in Latin America: Is Debt the Culprit?," Research Department Publications 4502, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    2. Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2010. "Public debt around the world: a new data set of central government debt," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 19-24, January.
    3. Reza Baqir, 2002. "Social Sector Spending in a Panel of Countries," IMF Working Papers 2002/035, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Lora, Eduardo & Olivera, Mauricio, 2007. "Public debt and social expenditure: Friends or foes?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 299-310, December.
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    6. Mahdavi, Saeid, 2004. "Shifts in the Composition of Government Spending in Response to External Debt Burden," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1139-1157, July.
    7. Eduardo Lora, 2007. "Public Investment in Infrastructure in Latin America: Is Debt the Culprit?," Research Department Publications 4502, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Fernando Martín-Mayoral & Juan Fernández Sastre, 2017. "Determinants of social spending in Latin America during and after the Washington consensus: a dynamic panel error-correction model analysis," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 26(1), pages 1-32, December.
    3. Gibrán Cruz-Martínez, 2021. "Mapping Welfare State Development in (post) Neoliberal Latin America," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 175-201, August.
    4. Eduardo Lora, 2007. "Public Investment in Infrastructure in Latin America: Is Debt the Culprit?," Research Department Publications 4502, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    5. Eduardo Lora, 2007. "Inversión pública en infraestructura en América Latina: ¿Es la deuda la culpable?," Research Department Publications 4503, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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