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La vulnerabilidad fiscal del gasto social: ¿Es Diferente América Latina?

  • Eduardo Lora

    ()

Se utiliza un panel desbalanceado de medio centenar de países para el período 1985-2003 con el objeto de evaluar la vulnerabilidad del gasto público social (en educación y salud) frente a las variables fiscales corrientes y la deuda pública en América Latina en comparación con el resto del mundo en desarrollo. El gasto social es significativamente más bajo en América Latina (aunque absorbe una proporción mayor del gasto primario) y es más vulnerable frente a mayores pagos de intereses de la deuda, pero más insensible a las variaciones del resto del gasto público. Como en otras regiones del mundo en desarrollo, el gasto social en América Latina se contrae con los aumentos de deuda pública, y aún más si se trata de deudas con la banca multilateral. A diferencia del resto del mundo, en América Latina los incumplimientos de deuda llevan a reducir la participación del gasto social en el gasto público.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4506.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4506
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  1. Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2006. "Public Debt around the World: A New Dataset of Central Government Debt," Research Department Publications 4461, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. Eduardo Lora, 2007. "Public Investment in Infrastructure in Latin America: Is Debt the Culprit?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6727, Inter-American Development Bank.
  3. Mahdavi, Saeid, 2004. "Shifts in the Composition of Government Spending in Response to External Debt Burden," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1139-1157, July.
  4. Eduardo Lora & Mauricio Olivera, 2006. "Public Debt and Social Expenditure: Friends or Foes?," Research Department Publications 4465, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  5. Mauro, Paolo, 1998. "Corruption and the composition of government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 263-279, June.
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