IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijm/journl/v9y2016i1p24-54.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Export Taxes, World Prices, and Poverty in Argentina: A Dynamic CGEMicrosimulation Analysis
[model, Argentina. Classification-JEL: C68, D58, I38, E62]

Author

Listed:
  • Martín Cicowiez

    (CEDLAS-FCE-Universidad Nacional de La Plata Calle 6 #777, La Plata (1900), Argentina)

  • Javier Alejo

    (CEDLAS-FCE-Universidad Nacional de La Plata and CONICET Calle 6 #777, La Plata (1900), Argentina)

  • Luciano Di Gresia

    (FCE-Universidad Nacional de La Plata Calle 6 #777, La Plata (1900), Argentina)

  • Sergio Olivieri
  • World Bank

    (1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433, USA)

  • Ana Pacheco

    (CEDLAS-FCE-Universidad Nacional de La Plata Calle 6 #777, La Plata (1900), Argentina)

Abstract

In this paper we implement a sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium model combined with a microsimulation model to assess (1) the short- and long-run economic impacts of a gradual reduction in the export tax that was introduced during the economic crisis that hit Argentina at the end of 2001, and (2) the impact of a decrease in the world prices of food products, one of the countrys main export products. Our results show that the elimination of the export tax would have different long run effects depending on the fiscal instrument that is used by the government to compensate for the loss in tax revenue. On the one hand, when the government increased direct tax rate, there is a long-run positive effect on growth. In all cases, the employment level is lower and the price of food items is higher. Therefore, the poverty headcount ratio increases. As expected, a reduction in the world price of food items (i.e., a worsening in Argentinas terms of trade) would impact negatively on the countrys GDP growth rate and poverty, particularly in the rural areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Martín Cicowiez & Javier Alejo & Luciano Di Gresia & Sergio Olivieri & World Bank & Ana Pacheco, 2016. "Export Taxes, World Prices, and Poverty in Argentina: A Dynamic CGEMicrosimulation Analysis [model, Argentina. Classification-JEL: C68, D58, I38, E62]," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(1), pages 24-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:9:y:2016:i:1:p:24-54
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://microsimulation.org/IJM/V9_1/IJM_9_1_2016_Cicowiez.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaime de MELO & Sherman ROBINSON, 2015. "Product Differentiation And The Treatment Of Foreign Trade In Computable General Equilibrium Models Of Small Economies," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 2, pages 21-41, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Introduction to "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings"," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Harrison, Glenn W & Vinod, H D, 1992. "The Sensitivity Analysis of Applied General Equilibrium Models: Completely Randomized Factorial Sampling Designs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 357-362, May.
    4. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1, October.
    5. Sherman Robinson, 2006. "Macro Models and Multipliers: Leontief, Stone, Keynes, and CGE Models," Economic Studies in Inequality, Social Exclusion, and Well-Being, in: Alain Janvry & Ravi Kanbur (ed.), Poverty, Inequality and Development, chapter 0, pages 205-232, Springer.
    6. Martín Cicowiez & Javier Alejo & Luciano Di Gresia & Sergio Olivieri & World Bank & Ana Pacheco, 2016. "Export Taxes, World Prices, and Poverty in Argentina: A Dynamic CGEMicrosimulation Analysis [model, Argentina. Classification-JEL: C68, D58, I38, E62]," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(1), pages 24-54.
    7. mercado, p. ruben, 2003. "Empirical economywide modeling in argentina," MPRA Paper 58611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Marco V. Sánchez & Rob Vos & Enrique Ganuza & Hans Lofgren & Carolina Díaz-Bonilla (ed.), 2010. "Public Policies for Human Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-27757-1.
    9. Nabil Annabi & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwé, 2006. "Functional Forms and Parametrization of CGE Models," Working Papers MPIA 2006-04, PEP-MPIA.
    10. Decaluwe, B. & Patry, A. & Savard, L. & Thorbecke, E., 1999. "Poverty Analysis Within a General Equilibrium Framework," Cahiers de recherche 9909, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
    11. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling and Earnings," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 41-63, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Wang, Baotai & Klein, Erwin & Rao, U. L. Gouranga, 1995. "Inflation and stabilization in Argentina," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 391-413, October.
    13. Sherman Robinson & Andrea Cattaneo & Moataz El-Said, 2001. "Updating and Estimating a Social Accounting Matrix Using Cross Entropy Methods," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 47-64.
    14. Chisari, Omar & Estache, Antonio & Romero, Carlos, 1999. "Winners and Losers from the Privatization and Regulation of Utilities: Lessons from a General Equilibrium Model of Argentina," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 13(2), pages 357-378, May.
    15. Lofgren, Hans & Cicowiez, Martin & Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina, 2013. "MAMS – A Computable General Equilibrium Model for Developing Country Strategy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 159-276, Elsevier.
    16. Rob Vos & Lance Taylor & Ricardo Paes de Barros (ed.), 2002. "Economic Liberalization, Distribution and Poverty," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2593.
    17. Boeters, Stefan & Savard, Luc, 2013. "The Labor Market in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1645-1718, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martín Cicowiez & Javier Alejo & Luciano Di Gresia & Sergio Olivieri & World Bank & Ana Pacheco, 2016. "Export Taxes, World Prices, and Poverty in Argentina: A Dynamic CGEMicrosimulation Analysis [model, Argentina. Classification-JEL: C68, D58, I38, E62]," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(1), pages 24-54.
    2. Javier Alejo, 2010. "Transición Demográfica y Pobreza en América Latina. Un Análisis de Microsimulaciones," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0108, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    3. Gohin, Alexandre & Levert, Fabrice & Forslund, Agneta, 2017. "The EU Argentinean Trade Dispute on Biodiesel: An Economic Assessment," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 66(01), March.
    4. Necibi, Thameur, 2014. "The oil position in the Tunisian economy: Adaptation of computable general equilibrium model," MPRA Paper 55185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Leonardo Eric CALCAGNO, 2017. "Does the introduction of non-contributory social benefits discourage registered labour? Testing the impact of pension moratoriums on unregistered employment in Argentina (2003-2015)," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2526, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    6. Leonardo Eric Calcagno, 2017. "Does the introduction of non-contributory social benefits discourage registered labour? Testing the impact of pension moratoriums on unregistered employment in Argentina (2003-2015)," Working Papers hal-01611132, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rob Vos & Marco V. Sánchez, 2010. "A non-parametric microsimulation approach to assess changes in inequality and poverty," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 8-23.
    2. Liyanaarachchi, Tilak S. & Naranpanawa, Athula & Bandara, Jayatilleke S., 2016. "Impact of trade liberalisation on labour market and poverty in Sri Lanka. An integrated macro-micro modelling approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 102-115.
    3. Katarzyna Growiec & Jakub Growiec, 2016. "Bridging Social Capital and Individual Earnings: Evidence for an Inverted U," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 601-631, June.
    4. Kaspar W thrich, 2013. "Set Identification of Generalized Linear Predictors in the Presence of Non-Classical Measurement Errors," Diskussionsschriften dp1304, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    5. Schultz, T. Paul, 2009. "The Gender and Generational Consequences of the Demographic Transition and Population Policy: An Assessment of the Micro and Macro Linkages," Working Papers 71, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    6. Aidis, Ruta & van Praag, Mirjam, 2007. "Illegal entrepreneurship experience: Does it make a difference for business performance and motivation?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 283-310, March.
    7. Sandra Nieto & Raúl Ramos, 2013. "Non-Formal Education, Overeducation And Wages," Revista de Economia Aplicada, Universidad de Zaragoza, Departamento de Estructura Economica y Economia Publica, vol. 21(1), pages 5-28, Spring.
    8. Galama, Titus & Kapteyn, Arie, 2011. "Grossman’s missing health threshold," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1044-1056.
    9. Cawley, John & Morrisey, Michael A., 2007. "The earnings of U.S. health economists," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 358-372, March.
    10. Ilhom Abdulloev & Ira N Gang & Myeong-Su Yun, 2014. "Migration, Education and the Gender Gap in Labour Force Participation," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 26(4), pages 509-526, September.
    11. James J. Heckman, 2019. "The Race Between Demand and Supply: Tinbergen’s Pioneering Studies of Earnings Inequality," De Economist, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 243-258, September.
    12. Domadenik, Polona & Far?nik, Daša & Pastore, Francesco, 2013. "Horizontal Mismatch in the Labour Market of Graduates: The Role of Signalling," IZA Discussion Papers 7527, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Ahrens, Jan-Philipp & Landmann, Andreas & Woywode, Michael, 2015. "Gender preferences in the CEO successions of family firms: Family characteristics and human capital of the successor," Journal of Family Business Strategy, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 86-103.
    14. Svenja Gärtner, 2013. "German Stagnation vs. Swedish Progression: Gender Wage Gaps in Comparison, 1960-2006," LIS Working papers 586, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    15. Felicia Ionescu, 2011. "Risky Human Capital and Alternative Bankruptcy Regimes for Student Loans," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(2), pages 153-206.
    16. Harmon, Colm & Hogan, Vincent & Walker, Ian, 2003. "Dispersion in the economic return to schooling," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 205-214, April.
    17. Mizunoya, Suguru & Mitra, Sophie & Yamasaki, Izumi, 2018. "Disability and school attendance in 15 low- and middle-income countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 388-403.
    18. Francisco Queiró, 2022. "Entrepreneurial Human Capital and Firm Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 2061-2100.
    19. Hector Espinoza & Stefan Speckesser, 2019. "A Comparison of Earnings Related to Higher Level Vocational/Technical and Academic Education," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 502, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    20. Andrew Glover & Jacob Short, 2020. "Demographic Origins of the Decline in Labor's Share," BIS Working Papers 874, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    poverty; fiscal policy; computable general equilibrium model; microsimulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:9:y:2016:i:1:p:24-54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jinjing Li (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.microsimulation.pub .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.