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When Do Futures Destabilize Spot Prices?

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  • Newbery, David M

Abstract

Futures markets allow agents to shift price risk onto speculators and encourages them to take riskier decisions. Historically their main impact has been to encourage the storage of commodities, thus arbitraging prices over time and reducing price fluctuations. This paper presents a simple model in which opening futures markets in a nonstorable commodity encourages producers to choose riskier production techniques which destabilizes supply and hence the spot price. Copyright 1987 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Newbery, David M, 1987. "When Do Futures Destabilize Spot Prices?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 291-297, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:28:y:1987:i:2:p:291-97
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    Cited by:

    1. Julyerme M. Tonin & Carlos M. R. Vieira & Rui M. de Sousa Fragoso & João G. Martines Filho, 2020. "Conditional correlation and volatility between spot and futures markets for soybean and corn," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 707-724, October.
    2. Lin Xie & Jiahua Liao & Haiting Chen & Xuefei Yan & Xinyan Hu, 2021. "Is Futurization the Culprit for the Violent Fluctuation in China’s Apple Spot Price?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-14, April.
    3. Patrick Artus, 1990. "Quand la création d'un marché à terme peut-elle déstabiliser le cours au comptant ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(1), pages 71-94.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11383 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Batista Soares, David & Borocco, Etienne, 2022. "Rational destabilization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    6. Ahmet Enis Kocagil, 1997. "Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 115-125.
    7. Bozic, Marin, 2011. "Three essays in commodity futures and options price performance," Faculty and Alumni Dissertations 160678, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    8. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, April.
    9. Plourde, A. & Watkins, G.C., 1993. "Crude Oil Prices: How Volatile in relation to Other Commodities?," Working Papers 9304e, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    10. Bensaid, B. & Boutillier, M., 1997. "Le contrat notionnel : efficience et causalité," Working papers 44, Banque de France.
    11. de Jong, Johan & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2022. "The effect of futures markets on the stability of commodity prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 176-211.
    12. Christian Koziol & Tilo Treuter, 2019. "How do speculators in agricultural commodity markets impact production decisions and commodity prices? A theoretical analysis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 25(3), pages 718-743, June.
    13. David Batista Soares & Etienne Borocco, 2022. "Rational destabilization in commodity markets [Déstabilisation rationnelle des marchés de matières premières]," Post-Print hal-03256534, HAL.
    14. Ivar Ekeland & Delphine Lautier & Bertrand Villeneuve, 2019. "Hedging pressure and speculation in commodity markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(1), pages 83-123, July.
    15. Patrick Artus & Claude Jessua, 1996. "La spéculation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(3), pages 409-424.
    16. Patrick Artus, 1996. "Création d'un marché à terme, nature des imperfections financières et stabilité du prix au comptant," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(5), pages 1043-1062.
    17. C. W. Morgan, 1999. "Futures Markets and Spot Price Volatility: A Case Study," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 247-257, May.
    18. Méndez Parra, Maximiliano, 2015. "Futures prices, trade and domestic supply of agricultural commodities," Economics PhD Theses 0115, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    19. Dragan Miljkovic & Cole Goetz, 2020. "Destabilizing role of futures markets on North American hard red spring wheat spot prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(6), pages 887-897, November.
    20. Dragan Miljkovic & Cole Goetz, 2023. "Futures markets and price stabilisation: An analysis of soybeans markets in North America," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(1), pages 104-117, January.
    21. Arzu Uluc, 2018. "Stabilising House Prices: the Role of Housing Futures Trading," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 587-621, May.
    22. Goetz, Cole & Miljkovic, Dragan & Barabanov, Nikita, 2021. "New empirical evidence in support of the theory of price volatility of storable commodities under rational expectations in spot and futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    23. Miljkovic, Dragan & Goetz, Cole, 2020. "The effects of futures markets on oil spot price volatility in regional US markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    24. Plourde, André & Watkins, G. C., 1998. "Crude oil prices between 1985 and 1994: how volatile in relation to other commodities?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 245-262, September.
    25. Ivar Ekeland & Delphine Lautier & Bertrand Villeneuve, 2013. "A simple equilibrium model for a commodity market with spot trades and futures contracts," Post-Print hal-01655807, HAL.

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