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When Do Futures Destabilize Spot Prices?


  • Newbery, David M


Futures markets allow agents to shift price risk onto speculators and encourages them to take riskier decisions. Historically their main impact has been to encourage the storage of commodities, thus arbitraging prices over time and reducing price fluctuations. This paper presents a simple model in which opening futures markets in a nonstorable commodity encourages producers to choose riskier production techniques which destabilizes supply and hence the spot price. Copyright 1987 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Newbery, David M, 1987. "When Do Futures Destabilize Spot Prices?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 291-297, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:28:y:1987:i:2:p:291-97

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Cukierman, Alex & Wachtel, Paul, 1979. "Differential Inflationary Expectations and the Variability of the Rate of Inflation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 595-609, September.
    2. Nelson, Charles R, 1979. "Recursive Structure in U.S. Income, Prices, and Output," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1307-1327, December.
    3. Taylor, John B., 1981. "On the relation between the variability of inflation and the average inflation rate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 57-85, January.
    4. Froyen, Richard T & Waud, Roger N, 1985. "Demand Variability, Supply Shocks and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(1), pages 9-15, February.
    5. Durbin, J, 1970. "Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression When Some of the Regressors are Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 410-421, May.
    6. Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978. "Towards an understanding of the real effects and costs of inflation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 114(4), pages 810-833, December.
    7. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    8. Engle, Robert F, 1983. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 286-301, August.
    9. Makin, John H, 1982. "Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty and Real Economic Activity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 126-134, February.
    10. Mullineaux, Donald J, 1980. "Unemployment, Industrial Production, and Inflation Uncertainty in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(2), pages 163-169, May.
    11. Blinder, Alan S, 1981. "Monetary Accommodation of Supply Shocks under Rational Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 425-438, November.
    12. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    13. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Artus & Claude Jessua, 1996. "La spéculation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(3), pages 409-424.
    2. Patrick Artus, 1990. "Quand la création d'un marché à terme peut-elle déstabiliser le cours au comptant ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(1), pages 71-94.
    3. Patrick Artus, 1996. "Création d'un marché à terme, nature des imperfections financières et stabilité du prix au comptant," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(5), pages 1043-1062.
    4. C. W. Morgan, 1999. "Futures Markets and Spot Price Volatility: A Case Study," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 247-257.
    5. Méndez Parra, Maximiliano, 2015. "Futures prices, trade and domestic supply of agricultural commodities," Economics PhD Theses 0115, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    6. Bozic, Marin, 2011. "Three essays in commodity futures and options price performance," Faculty Theses and Dissertations 160678, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    7. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, April.
    8. Uluc, Arzu, 2015. "Stabilising house prices: the role of housing futures trading," Bank of England working papers 559, Bank of England.
    9. Bensaid, B. & Boutillier, M., 1997. "Le contrat notionnel : efficience et causalité," Working papers 44, Banque de France.

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