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The Effect of Futures Markets on the Stability of Commodity Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Johan de Jong

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Joep Sonnemans

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Jan Tuinstra

    (University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

Do futures markets have a stabilizing or destabilizing effect on commodity prices? Empirical evidence is inconclusive. We try to resolve this question by means of a learning-to-forecast experiment in which a futures market and a spot market are coupled. The spot market exhibits negative feedback between forecasts and prices, while the futures market is of the positive feedback type, which makes it susceptible to bubbles and crashes. We show that the effect of a futures market on spot price stability changes non-monotonically with the strength of the coupling between the spot and futures markets. This coupling depends positively on the number of speculators on the futures market and negatively on storage costs, speculator risk aversion, and the volatility of futures prices. In the end we observe a stabilizing effect on spot prices for weakly coupled markets and a destabilizing effect when the coupling with the futures market is strong.

Suggested Citation

  • Johan de Jong & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra, "undated". "The Effect of Futures Markets on the Stability of Commodity Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-028/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20190028
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    2. Karolina Safarzynska & Taras Kryvyy, 2025. "Integrating metals and minerals into climate-economic models: a review," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(7), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Huilian Huang & Tao Xiong, 2023. "A good hedge or safe haven? The hedging ability of China's commodity futures market under extreme market conditions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 968-1035, July.
    4. Evans, George W. & Hommes, Cars & McGough, Bruce & Salle, Isabelle, 2022. "Are long-horizon expectations (de-)stabilizing? Theory and experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 44-63.
    5. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Dai, Yun-Shi & Duong, Kiet Tuan & Dai, Peng-Fei, 2024. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the extreme risk spillovers between agricultural futures and spots," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 91-111.
    6. Sha, Yezhou & Wu, Xi, 2025. "Black market prices as inflation predictor: Evidence from China’s hyperinflation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Yun-Shi Dai & Peng-Fei Dai & St'ephane Goutte & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2025. "Multiscale risk spillovers and external driving factors: Evidence from the global futures and spot markets of staple foods," Papers 2501.15173, arXiv.org.
    8. Vatsa, Puneet & Miljkovic, Tatjana & Miljkovic, Dragan, 2024. "Price discovery redux—Analyzing energy spot and futures prices using a dynamic programming approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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