IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/ijefaa/v17y2025i9p14.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dirichlet Bayesian Model Averaging for Aggregate Mortgage Default Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Feng Xu
  • Jian Hua
  • Dazhong Wu

Abstract

Based on Dirichlet process, a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method is proposed in this paper to predict residential mortgage default risk at aggregate level. This ensemble learning algorithm integrates estimates of the default risk provided by two machine learning and one classical forecasting models. Empirical analysis using regional mortgage default data shows that the Dirichlet BMA model performs better than other methods not only in fitting the data given, but also in providing out-of-sample predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng Xu & Jian Hua & Dazhong Wu, 2025. "Dirichlet Bayesian Model Averaging for Aggregate Mortgage Default Risk," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 17(9), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:17:y:2025:i:9:p:14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/download/0/0/52034/56646
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/0/52034
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Yuh-Jen & Wu, Chun-Han & Chen, Yuh-Min & Li, Hsin-Ying & Chen, Huei-Kuen, 2017. "Enhancement of fraud detection for narratives in annual reports," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 32-45.
    2. Charles A. Capone, 2003. "Mortgage default and default resolutions: their impact on communities," Proceedings 887, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. James B. Kau & Donald C. Keenan & Taewon Kim, 1993. "Transaction Costs, Suboptimal Termination and Default Probabilities," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 247-263, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C., 1999. "Patterns of rational default," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 765-785, November.
    2. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    3. Brueckner, Jan K. & Calem, Paul S. & Nakamura, Leonard I., 2012. "Subprime mortgages and the housing bubble," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 230-243.
    4. Goodman, Allen C. & Smith, Brent C., 2010. "Residential mortgage default: Theory works and so does policy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 280-294, December.
    5. Cebi, Selcuk & Karakurt, Necip Fazıl & Kurtulus, Erkan & Tokgoz, Bunyamin, 2024. "Development of a decision support system for client acceptance in independent audit process," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    6. Berkin, Anil & Aerts, Walter & Van Caneghem, Tom, 2023. "Feasibility analysis of machine learning for performance-related attributional statements," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    7. Monica Ramos Montesdeoca & Agustín J. Sánchez Medina & Felix Blázquez Santana, 2019. "Research Topics in Accounting Fraud in the 21st Century: A State of the Art," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-31, March.
    8. Brent C Smith & Kenneth N. Daniels, 2018. "Unintended Consequences of Risk Based Pricing: Racial Differences in Mortgage Costs," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 323-343, December.
    9. Danny Ben-Shahar, 2008. "Default, Credit Scoring, and Loan-to-Value: a Theoretical Analysis under Competitive and Non-Competitive Mortgage Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(2), pages 161-190.
    10. Kristopher Gerardi & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Lee E. Ohanian & Paul S. Willen, 2018. "Can’t Pay or Won’t Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 1098-1131.
    11. Allen C. Goodman & Brent C. Smith, 2010. "Housing default: theory works and so does policy," Working Paper 10-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    12. Chen L. Miller, 2018. "Comparison of Two Affordable Housing Finance Channels," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 227-250.
    13. Shuang Zhu & R. Pace, 2014. "Modeling Spatially Interdependent Mortgage Decisions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 598-620, November.
    14. Richard K. Green & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2010. "Sunk Costs and Mortgage Default," Working Paper 9097, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    15. Agarwal, Sumit & Green, Richard K. & Rosenblatt, Eric & Yao, Vincent, 2015. "Collateral pledge, sunk-cost fallacy and mortgage default," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 636-652.
    16. Sumit Agarwal & Yongheng Deng & Jia He, 2020. "Time Preferences, Mortgage Choice and Mortgage Default," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 151-187.
    17. O. Emre Ergungor, 2009. "Foreclosures in Ohio: does lender type matter?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan.
    18. Fábio Albuquerque & Paula Gomes Dos Santos, 2023. "Recent Trends in Accounting and Information System Research: A Literature Review Using Textual Analysis Tools," FinTech, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-27, April.
    19. Chao Tian & Roberto Quercia & Sarah Riley, 2016. "Unemployment as an Adverse Trigger Event for Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 28-49, January.
    20. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2016. "“Modelling and forecasting mortgage delinquency and foreclosure in the UK.”," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 32-53.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:17:y:2025:i:9:p:14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.