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Exchange Rate and Trade Balances in Brazil: A Disaggregated Analysis by Major Economic Categories

Author

Listed:
  • Elano Ferreira Arruda
  • Antônio Clécio de Brito
  • Pablo Urano de Carvalho Castelar

Abstract

This work investigates the repercussions of real devaluations in the exchange rate on the trade balance for Brazil, when considering major economic categories, i.e., capital goods, durable consumer goods, semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, intermediate goods, and fuels and lubricants. To this end, monthly data are used for the period January 2000 and July 2019, and vector error correction (VEC) models. The results suggest that, in the long run, real devaluations in the exchange rate have positive and elastic impacts on the trade balance in all sectors, except for fuels and lubricants. Only the durable consumer goods and fuels and lubricants sectors do not show the occurrence of the J curve. Domestic income has a negative impact on the trade balance in most models analyzed, while foreign income has a positive impact on all sectors, except for fuels and lubricants.

Suggested Citation

  • Elano Ferreira Arruda & Antônio Clécio de Brito & Pablo Urano de Carvalho Castelar, 2022. "Exchange Rate and Trade Balances in Brazil: A Disaggregated Analysis by Major Economic Categories," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(6), pages 1-62, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:14:y:2022:i:6:p:62
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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