IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/ijefaa/v14y2022i10p78.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Patterns of Deindustrialization: Are Countries Converging?

Author

Listed:
  • Fabrizio Ferretti
  • Michele Mariani
  • Elena Sarti

Abstract

During the last decades, the share of manufacturing in aggregate output (and employment) has declined in almost all advanced and emerging economies. In this paper, we investigated the patterns of deindustrialization in a sample of 117 (low-, middle-, and high-income) countries from 1995 to 2018. To this aim, we applied the nonlinear time-varying factor model, initially proposed by Phillips and Sul, to identify potential clubs wherein groups of countries converge toward a similar manufacturing share of GDP. Furthermore, we estimated an ordered logit model to assess the impact of economic globalization and technological revolution on the probability of falling into a particular club. Our results did not provide any support for the hypothesis of global convergence. However, the clustering algorithm successfully identified four strong final clubs, where the share of manufacturing on GDP ranges, on average, from 6% to 18%. Finally, the logit model indicated that as the R&D expenditures and the technological content of manufactured goods increased, so did the likelihood of belonging to a club with a high share of manufacturing value-added on GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrizio Ferretti & Michele Mariani & Elena Sarti, 2022. "Patterns of Deindustrialization: Are Countries Converging?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(10), pages 1-78, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:14:y:2022:i:10:p:78
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/download/0/0/47851/51370
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/0/47851
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2009. "Economic transition and growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1153-1185.
    2. Pasinetti,Luigi L., 1983. "Structural Change and Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521274104, September.
    3. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-1085, December.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1771-1855, November.
    5. Dani Rodrik, 2016. "Premature deindustrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-33, March.
    6. Felipe, Jesus & Mehta, Aashish, 2016. "Deindustrialization? A global perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 148-151.
    7. Dosi, Giovanni & Riccio, Federico & Virgillito, Maria Enrica, 2021. "Varieties of deindustrialization and patterns of diversification: why microchips are not potato chips," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 182-202.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2021. "Divergence Tendencies in the European Integration Process: A Danger for the Sustainability of the E(M)U?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Fabio Mazzola & Pietro Pizzuto, 2020. "Great Recession and club convergence in Europe: A cross‐country, cross‐region panel analysis (2000–2015)," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 676-711, June.
    3. Mendez-Guerra, Carlos, 2019. "Environmental Efficiency and Regional Convergence Clusters in Japan: A Nonparametric Density Approach," MPRA Paper 92245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Matysiak, George & Olszewski, Krzysztof, 2019. "A Panel Analysis of Polish Regional Cities Residential Price Convergence in the Primary Market," MPRA Paper 94660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ledesma-Cuenca, Ana & Montañés, Antonio & Simón-Fernández, María Blanca, 2022. "Disparities in premature mortality: Evidence for the OECD countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    6. Marrero, Ángel S. & Marrero, Gustavo A. & González, Rosa Marina & Rodríguez-López, Jesús, 2021. "Convergence in road transport CO2 emissions in Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Tam, Pui Sun & Tam, Pui I., 2012. "Rethinking stock market integration: Globalization, valuation and convergence," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-052, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    8. Clemente, Jesús & Lázaro-Alquézar, Angelina & Montañés, Antonio, 2019. "US state health expenditure convergence: A revisited analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 210-220.
    9. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2015. "GDP per capita in advanced countries over the 20th century," Working papers 549, Banque de France.
    10. Anang Budi Gunawan & Carlos Mendez & Shigeru Otsubo, 2021. "Provincial income convergence clubs in Indonesia: Identification and conditioning factors," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 2540-2575, December.
    11. Laia Maynou & Bruce Morley & Mercedes Monfort & Javier Ordóñez, 2020. "House price convergence Across Europe," Working Papers 2020/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    12. Rishabh Sinha, 2022. "Crop yield convergence across districts in India’s poorest state," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 41-59, February.
    13. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-052 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Maynou, Laia & Monfort, Mercedes & Morley, Bruce & Ordóñez, Javier, 2021. "Club convergence in European housing prices: The role of macroeconomic and housing market fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    15. Valerio Mendoza, Octasiano Miguel & Borsi, Mihály Tamás & Comim, Flavio, 2022. "Human capital dynamics in China: Evidence from a club convergence approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Konrad Lyncker & Rasmus Thoennessen, 2017. "Regional club convergence in the EU: evidence from a panel data analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 525-553, March.
    17. Burnett, J. Wesley, 2016. "Club convergence and clustering of U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 62-84.
    18. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2013. "Cross‐State Disparities In Us Health Care Expenditures," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 451-465, April.
    19. Castellanos-Sosa, Francisco A. & Cabral, René & Mollick, André Varella, 2022. "Energy reform and energy consumption convergence in Mexico: A spatial approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 336-350.
    20. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2009. "Club Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(1), pages 47-70, September.
    21. Vaseem Akram & Jabir Ali, 2021. "Output convergence at sector level across Indian states: Evidence from weak sigma and club convergence analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 1166-1188, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:14:y:2022:i:10:p:78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.