IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v8y2016i7p687-d74396.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Impacts of Power Shortage

Author

Listed:
  • Peng Ou

    () (Electric Power Research Institute of China Southern Power Grid, Guangzhou 510060, China)

  • Ruting Huang

    () (China Center for Energy Economics Research, School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China)

  • Xin Yao

    () (China Center for Energy Economics Research, School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
    Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China)

Abstract

The electricity industry is a basic industry of the national economy. It has experienced several large-scale power shortages, hard power shortage and soft power shortage, which have brought a great threat to China’s sustainable economic development. To solve this problem better, it is necessary to make a quantitative assessment of the economic impacts of power shortage. The CGE model is commonly used for simulating economic shocks and policy effects. It describes supply, demand and equilibrium in different markets by simulating the economic mechanism through a set of equations. Once changed, the exogenous variables will affect a certain part of the system and then the whole system, leading to changes in quantities and prices. The equilibrium state will also change from one to another. A static CGE model is built in this paper, and the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of eight sectors of China in 2007 is compiled, in order to simulate the economic impacts of hard power shortage and soft power shortage. Simulation results show that the negative effects of power shortage on economic development are very significant, and the effects vary in different sectors. Especially, under the background of hard power shortage, the industrial sector suffers most. The economic cost of power shortage is considerable, and the main reason for it is the specific administrative pricing system in China. The low electricity price in the long term will lead to insufficient construction and hard power shortage; moreover, that in the short run would result in soft power shortage. In order to solve the problem of power shortage completely, power system reform is inevitable.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng Ou & Ruting Huang & Xin Yao, 2016. "Economic Impacts of Power Shortage," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(7), pages 1-21, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:7:p:687-:d:74396
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/7/687/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/7/687/
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. He, Y.X. & Zhang, S.L. & Yang, L.Y. & Wang, Y.J. & Wang, J., 2010. "Economic analysis of coal price-electricity price adjustment in China based on the CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6629-6637, November.
    2. Shiu, Alice & Lam, Pun-Lee, 2004. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 47-54, January.
    3. Scaramucci, Jose A. & Perin, Clovis & Pulino, Petronio & Bordoni, Orlando F.J.G. & da Cunha, Marcelo P. & Cortez, Luis A.B., 2006. "Energy from sugarcane bagasse under electricity rationing in Brazil: a computable general equilibrium model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 986-992, June.
    4. J. Cansino & M. Cardenete & J. Gonzalez & M. P. Pablo-Romero, 2013. "Economic impacts of solar thermal electricity technology deployment on Andalusian productive activities: a CGE approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 50(1), pages 25-47, February.
    5. Jiahai Yuan & Qi Lei & Minpeng Xiong & Jingsheng Guo & Changhong Zhao, 2014. "Scenario-Based Analysis on Water Resources Implication of Coal Power in Western China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(10), pages 1-26, October.
    6. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Luc Savard & Antonio Estache, 2013. "The Distributional Impact of Developed Countries’ Climate Change Policies on Senegal: A Macro-Micro CGE Application," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(6), pages 1-24, June.
    7. Cherni, Judith A. & Kentish, Joanna, 2007. "Renewable energy policy and electricity market reforms in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 3616-3629, July.
    8. Lin, Boqiang & Jiang, Zhujun, 2011. "Estimates of energy subsidies in China and impact of energy subsidy reform," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 273-283, March.
    9. Grant Dansie & Marc Lanteigne & Indra Overland, 2010. "Reducing Energy Subsidies in China, India and Russia: Dilemmas for Decision Makers," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 1-19, February.
    10. Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Mansur, Erin T. & Wang, Qiong (Juliana), 2015. "Electricity shortages and firm productivity: Evidence from China's industrial firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 172-188.
    11. Liu, Ming-Hua & Margaritis, Dimitris & Zhang, Yang, 2013. "Market-driven coal prices and state-administered electricity prices in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 167-175.
    12. Cheng, Y.S. & Wong, W.K. & Woo, C.K., 2013. "How much have electricity shortages hampered China's GDP growth?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 369-373.
    13. Li Jiang & Feng Wu & Yu Liu & Xiangzheng Deng, 2014. "Modeling the Impacts of Urbanization and Industrial Transformation on Water Resources in China: An Integrated Hydro-Economic CGE Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(11), pages 1-15, October.
    14. Sherman Robinson & Andrea Cattaneo & Moataz El-Said, 2001. "Updating and Estimating a Social Accounting Matrix Using Cross Entropy Methods," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 47-64.
    15. Zhang, Liang & Ruan, Jian & Ding, Jianhua, 2014. "The institutional power shortage in China: Capacity shortage or capacity under-utilisation?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 480-494.
    16. Cai, Yiyong & Arora, Vipin, 2015. "Disaggregating electricity generation technologies in CGE models: A revised technology bundle approach with an application to the U.S. Clean Power Plan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 543-555.
    17. Ming, Zeng & Song, Xue & Lingyun, Li & Yuejin, Wang & Yang, Wei & Ying, Li, 2013. "China's large-scale power shortages of 2004 and 2011 after the electricity market reforms of 2002: Explanations and differences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 610-618.
    18. Nguyen, Khanh Q., 2008. "Impacts of a rise in electricity tariff on prices of other products in Vietnam," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3135-3139, August.
    19. Li, Ji Feng & Wang, Xin & Zhang, Ya Xiong & Kou, Qin, 2014. "The economic impact of carbon pricing with regulated electricity prices in China—An application of a computable general equilibrium approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 46-56.
    20. Sun, Tianqing & Wang, Xiaohua & Ma, Xianguo, 2009. "Relationship between the economic cost and the reliability of the electric power supply system in city: A case in Shanghai of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 2262-2267, October.
    21. He, Y.X. & Yang, L.F. & He, H.Y. & Luo, T. & Wang, Y.J., 2011. "Electricity demand price elasticity in China based on computable general equilibrium model analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 1115-1123.
    22. Li, Hong-Zhou & Tian, Xian-Liang & Zou, Tao, 2015. "Impact analysis of coal-electricity pricing linkage scheme in China based on stochastic frontier cost function," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 296-305.
    23. Woo, Chi-Keung & Pupp, Roger L., 1992. "Costs of service disruptions to electricity consumers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 109-126.
    24. Yanlin Yang & Yin-E Chen & Zhizhong Liu, 2007. "Energy Constraints and China's Economic Development," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 343-354.
    25. Akkemik, K. Ali & Oğuz, Fuat, 2011. "Regulation, efficiency and equilibrium: A general equilibrium analysis of liberalization in the Turkish electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3282-3292.
    26. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2011. "A dynamic panel study of economic development and the electricity consumption-growth nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 770-781, September.
    27. Hwang, Won-Sik & Lee, Jeong-Dong, 2015. "A CGE analysis for quantitative evaluation of electricity market changes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 69-81.
    28. Ngan, H.W., 2010. "Electricity regulation and electricity market reforms in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2142-2148, May.
    29. Rodrigues, Renato & Linares, Pedro, 2015. "Electricity load level detail in computational general equilibrium – part II – welfare impacts of a demand response program," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 52-67.
    30. Cansino, J.M. & Cardenete, M.A. & González-Limón, J.M. & Román, R., 2014. "The economic influence of photovoltaic technology on electricity generation: A CGE (computable general equilibrium) approach for the Andalusian case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 70-79.
    31. Welsch, Heinz & Ochsen, Carsten, 2001. "Dismantling of nuclear power in Germany: sectoral and macroeconomic effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 279-289, March.
    32. Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2006. "The deregulation of Japan's electricity industry," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 230-246, March.
    33. Yuanying Chi & Zhengquan Guo & Yuhua Zheng & Xingping Zhang, 2014. "Scenarios Analysis of the Energies’ Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China Based on a Dynamic CGE Model," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, January.
    34. Erling Holmøy, 2005. "The Anatomy of Electricity Demand: A CGE Decomposition for Norway," Discussion Papers 426, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    35. Ma, Hengyun & Oxley, Les & Gibson, John, 2009. "China's energy situation in the new millennium," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 1781-1799, October.
    36. Pyatt, Graham, 1988. "A SAM approach to modeling," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 327-352.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ning Zhang & Bing Wang, 2016. "Toward a Sustainable Low-Carbon China: A Review of the Special Issue of “Energy Economics and Management”," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(8), pages 1-8, August.
    2. repec:eee:energy:v:151:y:2018:i:c:p:622-632 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:energy:v:143:y:2018:i:c:p:1020-1028 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    hard power shortage; soft power shortage; CGE model; economic impacts; electricity system reform;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:7:p:687-:d:74396. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (XML Conversion Team). General contact details of provider: http://www.mdpi.com/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.