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Projected Crop Production under Regional Climate Change Using Scenario Data and Modeling: Sensitivity to Chosen Sowing Date and Cultivar

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  • Sulin Tao

    (Collaborative Innovation Centre on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Shuanghe Shen

    (Collaborative Innovation Centre on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Yuhong Li

    (Liaoning Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shenyang 110166, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Qi Wang

    (National Meteorological Information Centre, Beijing 100081, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Ping Gao

    (Meteorological Service Centre for Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210008, China)

  • Isaac Mugume

    (Department of Geography, Geo-Informatics & Climatic Sciences, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda)

Abstract

A sensitivity analysis of the responses of crops to the chosen production adaptation options under regional climate change was conducted in this study. Projections of winter wheat production for different sowing dates and cultivars were estimated for a major economic and agricultural province of China from 2021 to 2080 using the World Food Study model (WOFOST) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios. A modeling chain was established and a correction method was proposed to reduce the bias of the resulting model-simulated climate data. The results indicated that adjusting the sowing dates and cultivars could mitigate the influences of climate change on winter wheat production in Jinagsu. The yield gains were projected from the chosen sowing date and cultivar. The following actions are recommended to ensure high and stable yields under future climate changes: (i) advance the latest sowing date in some areas of northern Jiangsu; and (ii) use heat-tolerant or heat-tolerant and drought-resistant varieties in most areas of Jiangsu rather than the currently used cultivar. Fewer of the common negative effects of using a single climate model occurred when using the sensitivity analysis because our bias correction method was effective for scenario data and because the WOFOST performed well for Jiangsu after calibration.

Suggested Citation

  • Sulin Tao & Shuanghe Shen & Yuhong Li & Qi Wang & Ping Gao & Isaac Mugume, 2016. "Projected Crop Production under Regional Climate Change Using Scenario Data and Modeling: Sensitivity to Chosen Sowing Date and Cultivar," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-23, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:3:p:214-:d:64654
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Mike Hulme & Elaine M. Barrow & Nigel W. Arnell & Paula A. Harrison & Timothy C. Johns & Thomas E. Downing, 1999. "Relative impacts of human-induced climate change and natural climate variability," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6721), pages 688-691, February.
    3. Neville Nicholls, 1997. "Increased Australian wheat yield due to recent climate trends," Nature, Nature, vol. 387(6632), pages 484-485, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chengfang Huang & Ning Li & Zhengtao Zhang & Yuan Liu & Xi Chen & Fang Wang & Qiong Chen, 2020. "What Is the Consensus from Multiple Conclusions of Future Crop Yield Changes Affected by Climate Change in China?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Dengpan Xiao & Huizi Bai & De Li Liu, 2018. "Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Simulated Case for China’s Wheat System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, April.

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