IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i3p963-d314065.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determining Extremes for Future Precipitation in South Korea Based on RCP Scenarios Using Non-Parametric SPI

Author

Listed:
  • Hemen Mark Butu

    (Department of Climate Change, Graduate School, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea)

  • Yongwon Seo

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Yeungnam University, Gyeongsan 38541, Korea)

  • Jeung Soo Huh

    (Department of Climate Change, Graduate School, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea)

Abstract

Historical, downscaled and projected data for six cities in South Korea were collected and analyzed using non-parametric Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) across the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. SPI results were utilized in further analyses: intensity, decadal frequency, and temporal shifts. Non-parametric SPI was used as it produces more reliable results in terms of their statistical, spatial and temporal characteristics. RCP4.5 was taken to represent concentrations under the current emissions trajectory, while RCP8.5 represents the high-end scenario. Findings suggest that extreme precipitation events are more likely to increase in number than extreme drought across all timescales and RCPs. Variability was observed to increase when comparing SPI obtained from actual, measured and gridded precipitation. More extreme droughts are expected under RCP8.5 forcing as are the occurrence of multiyear droughts and extreme wet events relative to RCP4.5. A seasonal shift in extreme precipitation of up to 3 months earlier was observed. Generally, the period between 2080 and 2100 holds the highest probability to host extremely rare and persistent events.

Suggested Citation

  • Hemen Mark Butu & Yongwon Seo & Jeung Soo Huh, 2020. "Determining Extremes for Future Precipitation in South Korea Based on RCP Scenarios Using Non-Parametric SPI," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-26, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:3:p:963-:d:314065
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/3/963/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/3/963/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    2. Myles Allen, 2003. "Liability for climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6926), pages 891-892, February.
    3. P. C. D. Milly & R. T. Wetherald & K. A. Dunne & T. L. Delworth, 2002. "Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 415(6871), pages 514-517, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pretis, Felix, 2021. "Exogeneity in climate econometrics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    2. Moges Molla, 2020. "Statically Downscaling using different Representative Concentration Pass ways of Emission Scenario; in the Case Wolikite, South West Ethiopia," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 25(3), pages 84-96, August.
    3. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    4. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    5. Cristina Cattaneo & Emanuele Massetti, 2019. "Does Harmful Climate Increase Or Decrease Migration? Evidence From Rural Households In Nigeria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-36, November.
    6. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.
    7. T.M.L. Wigley, 2018. "The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 31-45, March.
    8. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    9. P. V. Timbadiya & K. M. Krishnamraju, 2023. "A 2D hydrodynamic model for river flood prediction in a coastal floodplain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(2), pages 1143-1165, January.
    10. Islam, AFM Tariqul & Islam, AKM Saiful & Islam, GM Tarekul & Bala, Sujit Kumar & Salehin, Mashfiqus & Choudhury, Apurba Kanti & Dey, Nepal C. & Hossain, Akbar, 2022. "Adaptation strategies to increase water productivity of wheat under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    11. Luke J. Harrington, 2017. "Investigating differences between event-as-class and probability density-based attribution statements with emerging climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 641-654, April.
    12. Jaewon Kwak & Huiseong Noh & Soojun Kim & Vijay P. Singh & Seung Jin Hong & Duckgil Kim & Keonhaeng Lee & Narae Kang & Hung Soo Kim, 2014. "Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    13. Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Stochastic Kaya model and its applications," MPRA Paper 55099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Roberto Roson & Richard Damania, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity: an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," IEFE Working Papers 84, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    15. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.
    16. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    17. Henzler, Julia & Weise, Hanna & Enright, Neal J. & Zander, Susanne & Tietjen, Britta, 2018. "A squeeze in the suitable fire interval: Simulating the persistence of fire-killed plants in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem under drier conditions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 389(C), pages 41-49.
    18. Abhiru Aryal & Albira Acharya & Ajay Kalra, 2022. "Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-22, June.
    19. Greg Lusk, 2017. "The social utility of event attribution: liability, adaptation, and justice-based loss and damage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 201-212, July.
    20. Milan Ščasný & Emanuele Massetti & Jan Melichar & Samuel Carrara, 2015. "Quantifying the Ancillary Benefits of the Representative Concentration Pathways on Air Quality in Europe," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 383-415, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:3:p:963-:d:314065. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.