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Carbon Emission Forecasts Under the Scenario of a 1.5 °C Increase: A Multi-National Perspective

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  • Di Xu

    (School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China)

  • Wenpeng Lin

    (School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China)

Abstract

The Paris Agreement is aimed at keeping global warming well below 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit it below 1.5 °C; however, achieving these goals implies a tight limit on cumulative net carbon emissions, which includes CO 2 , CH 4 , and NO 2 . Moreover, the focus of carbon emission policies should differ from country to country depending on their national circumstances. In this study, based on forecast models, specifically, in 2005, the average annual per-capita CO 2 emissions was recorded as 6.8 tons for Brazil, 4.8 tons for China, 8.4 tons for EU28, 1.2 tons for India, 10.1 tons for Japan, 9.0 tons for Russia, and 18.6 tons for the USA. The carbon intensity is expected to range from 37% to 85% across the studied regions. Based on the AIM, POLES, and IMAGE models, the projected carbon prices for 2050 are estimated at USD 2000, USD 2045, and USD 940 per ton of CO 2 , measured in 2005 US dollars, respectively. The forecast data support carbon policy making in major countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Xu & Wenpeng Lin, 2025. "Carbon Emission Forecasts Under the Scenario of a 1.5 °C Increase: A Multi-National Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-13, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:8:p:3296-:d:1630138
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