Modeling and Numerical Analysis of the Severobaikalsk Section of the Baikal–Amur Mainline Considering Environmental Points

The article addresses the problem of increasing the capacity of the Baikal–Amur Mainline, which is part of the Northern Eurasian Corridor and provides the shortest route from Europe to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region via the ports of the Russian Far East. A key focus of the study is the Severobaikalsk section, which currently operates as a single-track system and is located in a specially protected natural area. In this regard, it is a limiting element since its reconstruction projects require environmental expertise. To tackle this issue, we develop a mathematical model based on semi-open queuing networks as a research tool. This modeling apparatus allows us to describe the features of the considered transport system, including single-track traffic, long sections between stations, which leads to the appearance of additional sidings, the presence of through and ring routes, and the significant influence of random factors on train operation. Based on the results of a numerical study of the model, we evaluate the current and maximum permissible section loads and point out bottlenecks in its structure. We compare two alternative ways of increasing the section capacity: creating a double-track connection on the most problematic sections and using a partially batch train schedule. Based on the results of the calculations, we conclude about the possibility and conditions of their implementation.