Spatio-Temporal Patterns and Regional Differences in Carbon Emission Intensity of Land Uses in China

In recent years, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events has prompted increased global attention to greenhouse gas emissions. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of carbon emission intensity (CEI) across land use types in China’s 30 provinces from 2009 to 2022. Based on the data from China Rural Statistical Yearbook, China City Statistical Yearbook, China Energy Statistical Yearbook, China Natural Resources Statistical Yearbook, and China Statistical Yearbook, this study aims to reveal the spatio-temporal differentiation patterns of CEI, analyze the decoupling status between development mode and carbon emissions, and establish a three-dimensional collaborative emission reduction framework. Firstly, employing the carbon emission factor method, provincial carbon emissions, sinks, and net emissions are calculated, with intensity levels derived from gross domestic product (GDP). Secondly, spatio-temporal trends and inter-provincial disparities are analyzed using the decoupling index. The spatial effects among the provinces are investigated based on Moran’s I index. The results show that while the overall CEI has declined since 2009, significant regional disparities persist, with the southern provinces showing lower carbon emission intensities compared to the northern and western regions. The spatial analysis reveals a strong aggregation effect, with provinces clustering into high-high (HH) and low-low (LL) regions regarding CEI. This study concludes with policy recommendations for emission reduction and climate change mitigation, emphasizing industrial structure adjustment, enhanced regional coordination, and optimized land use planning.