Spatiotemporal spillover effect and efficiency of carbon emissions from land use in China

With greater industrialization and urbanization, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has increased rapidly, and global warming has become a great challenge for humankind. Land is an important resource for human survival and development. The analysis of CO2 emissions from various land uses is crucial for controlling the level of land CO2 emissions and increasing the effectiveness of land use. This study develops a methodological framework to explore the spatiotemporal spillover effect and efficiency in regional land use carbon emissions (LUCE) and the change of land use structure efficiency (LUSE). The CO2 emissions of various land use types and the amount of indirect CO2 emissions of related industries from 1995 to 2015 were calculated. Based on CO2 emission measurement and spatial autocorrelation test, a spatial Durbin model is constructed to explore the spatial spillover effect (SSE) of LUCE. A Super-slack-based DEA model with undesirable outputs is proposed to measure the LUSE and the LUCE of various provinces from 1990 to 2015. Results show that the LUCE in China show an increasing trend overall, with emissions increasing nearly four times from 1990 to 2015. This increase is caused mainly by indirect CO2 emissions, that is, energy consumption generated by human activities. The local Moran’s I showed a downward trend with the increase in years, indicating that regions with similar LUCE were gradually dispersed and that regional differences existed. The LUSE in China presents a mainly decreasing trend from 0.96 in 1990 to 0.69 in 2015. The spatial distribution of CO2 emissions is negatively correlated with land use efficiency. Economic growth, technological input and energy intensity are the core factors affecting regional LUCE and have significant spatial spillover characteristics. The 30 provinces are separated into three subareas by a comparison of the LUSE and the LUCE, and recommendations are made for how to improve the LUSE and CO2 emission reduction control of each subarea.