Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of agricultural land transfer in China

This paper systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution trends and macroeconomic driving factors of farmland transfer at the provincial level in China since 2005, aiming to offer a new perspective for understanding the dynamic mechanisms of China’s farmland transfer. Through the integrated use of kernel density estimation, the Markov model, and panel quantile regression methods, this study finds the following: (1) Farmland transfer rates across Chinese provinces show an overall upward trend, but regional differences exhibit a "U-shaped" evolution characterized by initially narrowing and then widening; (2) although provinces have relatively stable farmland transfer levels, there is potential for dynamic transitions; (3) factors such as per capita arable land, farmers’ disposable income, the social security level, the urban‒rural income gap, the urbanization rate, government intervention, and the marketization level significantly promote farmland transfer, while inclusive finance inhibits transfer, and agricultural mechanization level and population aging have heterogeneous impacts. Therefore, to achieve convergence of low farmland transfer regions to medium levels while promoting medium-level regions to higher levels, it is recommended that the government increase support for agricultural mechanization, increase farmers’ income and social security levels, and optimize marketization processes and government intervention strategies. The main contributions of this paper are (1) systematically revealing the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of China’s farmland transfer and (2) employing panel quantile regression methods to explore the heterogeneous impacts of driving factors, providing more precise and detailed empirical support for the government’s formulation of farmland transfer policies.