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Multiple Hazards and Economic Resilience: Sectoral Impacts and Post-Disaster Recovery in a High-Risk Brazilian State

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Listed:
  • Jorge Luis Tonetto

    (La Salle Campus Barcelona, Ramon Llull University, 08022 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Josep Miquel Pique

    (La Salle Campus Barcelona, Ramon Llull University, 08022 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Carina Rapetti

    (La Salle Campus Barcelona, Ramon Llull University, 08022 Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract

Rio Grande do Sul accounts for 22% of Brazil’s losses from extreme events, mainly droughts and floods. The state had the second-worst economic performance in the country between 2000 and 2022. This study quantifies the impacts of major events such as droughts, floods, and the COVID-19 pandemic on economic sectors. Three methods were applied: structural breaks, recovery time, and sector-specific loss estimates. The analysis covers 15,365,123 observations of monthly invoice values from January 2017 to April 2025, involving 357,001 companies paying value-added tax on consumption. The results indicate that negative structural breaks occurred in a few sectors, which account for 5% of the state’s economy. The recovery time followed a similar trajectory between droughts and COVID-19. On average, sectors took 12 months to recover from COVID-19, compared with about 6 months for natural hazards. The sectors most impacted were travel, artistic activities, machinery and equipment industry, accommodation, and domestic services. Aggregated loss estimates were highest during the COVID-19 pandemic (−8%), followed by floods (−1%) and droughts (0%). The results indicate remarkable overall short-run economic resilience. Furthermore, sectors such as information technology, consulting, business services, and healthcare performed exceptionally well.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Luis Tonetto & Josep Miquel Pique & Carina Rapetti, 2025. "Multiple Hazards and Economic Resilience: Sectoral Impacts and Post-Disaster Recovery in a High-Risk Brazilian State," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-21, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:17:p:7711-:d:1733761
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    References listed on IDEAS

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