IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i8p3450-d1379431.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identifying the Contributing Sources of Uncertainties in Urban Flood Vulnerability in South Korea Considering Multiple GCMs, SSPs, Weight Determination Methods, and MCDM Techniques

Author

Listed:
  • Ghaith Falah Ziarh

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 232 Gongneung-ro, Nowon-gu, Seoul 01811, Republic of Korea)

  • Jin Hyuck Kim

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 232 Gongneung-ro, Nowon-gu, Seoul 01811, Republic of Korea)

  • Seung Taek Chae

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 232 Gongneung-ro, Nowon-gu, Seoul 01811, Republic of Korea)

  • Hae-Yeol Kang

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 232 Gongneung-ro, Nowon-gu, Seoul 01811, Republic of Korea)

  • Changyu Hong

    (Division of Global and Interdisciplinary Studies, Pukyung National University, Pusan 48513, Republic of Korea)

  • Jae Yeol Song

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 232 Gongneung-ro, Nowon-gu, Seoul 01811, Republic of Korea)

  • Eun-Sung Chung

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 232 Gongneung-ro, Nowon-gu, Seoul 01811, Republic of Korea)

Abstract

This study quantified uncertainties involved in assessing the future flood vulnerability in 33 urban areas with population exceeding designated thresholds in South Korea. The driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework was utilized as the study procedure, integrating social, economic, and environmental factors. In addition, a total of 220 cases of combinations were examined, encompassing twenty general circulation models combined with shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios, five weight determination methods, and three multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques, as sources of inherent uncertainties in the process. The rankings of urban flood vulnerability (UFV) for the selected cities were comprehensively assessed considering all combinations, followed by an analysis of variance test to investigate contributing sources of uncertainties. As a result, Incheon and Busan were found to be vulnerable to flooding, while Yeongcheon and Andong appeared to be safe cities. Some cities exhibited wide ranges in their rankings, such as Daegu, Yangpyeon, and Jeongeup. The identified contributing sources were weighting (58%), MCDM (27%), and the combination of weighting and MCDM methods together (15%). This study revealed that weight determination methods and MCDM techniques are the primary sources of uncertainties in the assessment of future UFV instead of multiple GCMs and SSPs. This finding underscores the importance for decision-makers and stakeholders to carefully consider these uncertainties for sustainable flood risk management and prevention.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghaith Falah Ziarh & Jin Hyuck Kim & Seung Taek Chae & Hae-Yeol Kang & Changyu Hong & Jae Yeol Song & Eun-Sung Chung, 2024. "Identifying the Contributing Sources of Uncertainties in Urban Flood Vulnerability in South Korea Considering Multiple GCMs, SSPs, Weight Determination Methods, and MCDM Techniques," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-16, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:8:p:3450-:d:1379431
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/8/3450/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/8/3450/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seung Taek Chae & Eun-Sung Chung & Jiping Jiang, 2022. "Robust Siting of Permeable Pavement in Highly Urbanized Watersheds Considering Climate Change Using a Combination of Fuzzy-TOPSIS and the VIKOR Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(3), pages 951-969, February.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    3. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    4. Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer, 1963. "An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 458-467, April.
    5. V. Kharin & F. Zwiers & X. Zhang & M. Wehner, 2013. "Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 345-357, July.
    6. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    7. Opricovic, Serafim & Tzeng, Gwo-Hshiung, 2004. "Compromise solution by MCDM methods: A comparative analysis of VIKOR and TOPSIS," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 445-455, July.
    8. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    9. Jun Rentschler & Melda Salhab & Bramka Arga Jafino, 2022. "Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    10. Stefan Hajkowicz & Kerry Collins, 2007. "A Review of Multiple Criteria Analysis for Water Resource Planning and Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(9), pages 1553-1566, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bryan Jones & Claudia Tebaldi & Brian C. O’Neill & Keith Oleson & Jing Gao, 2018. "Avoiding population exposure to heat-related extremes: demographic change vs climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 423-437, February.
    2. Seung Taek Chae & Eun-Sung Chung & Jiping Jiang, 2022. "Robust Siting of Permeable Pavement in Highly Urbanized Watersheds Considering Climate Change Using a Combination of Fuzzy-TOPSIS and the VIKOR Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(3), pages 951-969, February.
    3. Lanzi, Elisa & Dellink, Rob & Chateau, Jean, 2018. "The sectoral and regional economic consequences of outdoor air pollution to 2060," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 89-113.
    4. McManamay, Ryan A. & DeRolph, Christopher R. & Surendran-Nair, Sujithkumar & Allen-Dumas, Melissa, 2019. "Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 880-900.
    5. Richard Taylor & Ruth Butterfield & Tiago Capela Lourenço & Adis Dzebo & Henrik Carlsen & Richard J. T. Klein, 2020. "Surveying perceptions and practices of high-end climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 65-87, July.
    6. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Coppens, Léo & Venmans, Frank, 2025. "The welfare properties of climate targets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    8. De Cian, Enrica & Wing, Ian Sue, "undated". "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," EIA: Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation 232222, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    9. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
    10. Victor Nechifor & Matthew Winning, 2017. "The impacts of higher CO2 concentrations over global crop production and irrigation water requirements," EcoMod2017 10487, EcoMod.
    11. Dugan, Anna & Mayer, Jakob & Thaller, Annina & Bachner, Gabriel & Steininger, Karl W., 2022. "Developing policy packages for low-carbon passenger transport: A mixed methods analysis of trade-offs and synergies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    12. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    13. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    14. Sánchez-García, Daniel & Bienvenido-Huertas, David & Kim, Jungsoo & Pisello, Anna Laura, 2025. "Exploring the energy implications of human thermal adaptation to hot temperatures in present and future scenarios: a parametric simulation study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    15. Giuseppe Pulighe & Flavio Lupia & Valentina Manente, 2025. "Climate-Driven Invasion Risks of Japanese Beetle ( Popillia japonica Newman) in Europe Predicted Through Species Distribution Modelling," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-14, March.
    16. Zheng, Zhoumin & Xu, Nuo & Khan, Mohsin & Pedersen, Michael & Abdalgader, Tarteel & Zhang, Lai, 2024. "Nonlinear impacts of climate change on dengue transmission in mainland China: Underlying mechanisms and future projection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).
    17. Hongliang Zhang & Jianhong E. Mu & Bruce A. McCarl & Jialing Yu, 2022. "The impact of climate change on global energy use," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-19, January.
    18. Francesco Lamperti & Valentina Bosetti & Andrea Roventini & Massimo Tavoni, 2019. "The public costs of climate-induced financial instability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(11), pages 829-833, November.
    19. Julien CALAS & Antoine GODIN & Julie MAURIN (AFD) & and Etienne ESPAGNE (World Bank), 2022. "Global biodiversity scenarios: what do they tell us for biodiversity-related socioeconomic impacts?," Working Paper 1a39419b-ef1d-4b82-a7be-d, Agence française de développement.
    20. Juliette N. Rooney-Varga & Florian Kapmeier & John D. Sterman & Andrew P. Jones & Michele Putko & Kenneth Rath, 2020. "The Climate Action Simulation," Simulation & Gaming, , vol. 51(2), pages 114-140, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:8:p:3450-:d:1379431. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.