The Temporal–Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Influential Factors of Carbon Imbalance in China

The ongoing progress of industrialization and urbanization has exacerbated the imbalance between carbon emissions and absorption, leading to heightened risks of climate change, such as frequent occurrences of extreme weather events. Clarifying the driving forces and temporal–spatial evolution characteristics of China’s carbon balance holds significant theoretical value in understanding the systemic nature and patterns of interaction between carbon emissions and absorption. We utilize provincial panel data from 2005 to 2021 in China and a spatial Durbin model to explore the spatial spillover effects of carbon imbalance and its influencing factors. The results indicate a gradual exacerbation of carbon imbalance in China over time. There exists a spatially positive correlation pattern in provincial carbon imbalance distribution. From 2005 to 2010, intra-regional differences in carbon imbalance levels were a significant contributor to China’s overall carbon imbalance disparity, while from 2011 to 2019, inter-regional differences played a more substantial role. Given the apparent phenomena of population aggregation, industrial concentration, and economic interdependence among provinces, changes in population size, economic growth, and industrial structure exacerbate the level of carbon imbalance in spatially correlated regions. Conversely, due to knowledge and technology spillovers, improvements in energy efficiency facilitated by the flow of production factors like capital aid in the governance of carbon imbalance in spatially associated areas. We emphasize that local governments should focus on a regional integration perspective in carbon imbalance governance and strategically coordinate with neighboring provinces and cities to advance carbon imbalance governance. The findings provide theoretical support for understanding and effectively managing the situation of carbon imbalance in China.