IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2023i1p293-d1309459.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparison of Climate Change Effects on Wheat Production under Different Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios in North Kazakhstan

Author

Listed:
  • Zhanassyl Teleubay

    (Department of Geography and Atmospheric Sciences, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA)

  • Farabi Yermekov

    (Center for Technological Competence in the Field of Digitalization of the Agro-Industrial Complex, S.Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan)

  • Arman Rustembayev

    (Center for Technological Competence in the Field of Digitalization of the Agro-Industrial Complex, S.Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan)

  • Sultan Topayev

    (Center for Technological Competence in the Field of Digitalization of the Agro-Industrial Complex, S.Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan)

  • Askar Zhabayev

    (Center for Technological Competence in the Field of Digitalization of the Agro-Industrial Complex, S.Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan)

  • Ismail Tokbergenov

    (Center for Technological Competence in the Field of Digitalization of the Agro-Industrial Complex, S.Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan)

  • Valentina Garkushina

    (Faculty of Land Management, Architecture and Design, S.Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan)

  • Amangeldy Igilmanov

    (Faculty of Land Management, Architecture and Design, S.Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan)

  • Vakhtang Shelia

    (Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Global Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA)

  • Gerrit Hoogenboom

    (Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Global Food Systems Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA)

Abstract

Adverse weather conditions, once rare anomalies, are now becoming increasingly commonplace, causing heavy losses to crops and livestock. One of the most immediate and far-reaching concerns is the potential impact on agricultural productivity and global food security. Although studies combining crop models and future climate data have been previously carried out, such research work in Central Asia is limited in the international literature. The current research aims to harness the predictive capabilities of the CRAFT (CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Toolbox) to predict and comprehend the ramifications stemming from three distinct RCPs, 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, on wheat yield. As a result, the arid steppe zone was found to be the most sensitive to an increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, since the yield difference between RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 accounted for almost 110 kg/ha (16.4%) and for 77.1 kg/ha (10.4%) between RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, followed by the small hilly zone with an average loss of 90.1 and 58.5 kg/ha for RCPs 2.6–8.5 and RCPs 4.5–8.5, respectively. The research findings indicated the loss of more than 10% of wheat in the arid steppe zone, 7.6% in the small hilly zone, 7.5% in the forest steppe zone, and 6% in the colo steppe zone due to climate change if the modeled RCP 8.5 scenario occurs without any technological modernization and genetic modification. The average wheat yield failure in the North Kazakhstan region accounted for 25.2, 59.5, and 84.7 kg/ha for RCPs 2.6–4.5, 4.5–8.5, and 2.6–8.5, respectively, which could lead to food disasters at a regional scale. Overall, the CRAFT using the DSSAT crop modeling system, combined with the climate predictions, showed great potential in assessing climate change effects on wheat yield under different climate scenarios in the North Kazakhstan region. We believe that the results obtained will be helpful during the development and zoning of modified, drought-resistant wheat varieties and the cultivation of new crops in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhanassyl Teleubay & Farabi Yermekov & Arman Rustembayev & Sultan Topayev & Askar Zhabayev & Ismail Tokbergenov & Valentina Garkushina & Amangeldy Igilmanov & Vakhtang Shelia & Gerrit Hoogenboom, 2023. "Comparison of Climate Change Effects on Wheat Production under Different Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios in North Kazakhstan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2023:i:1:p:293-:d:1309459
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/1/293/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/1/293/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hammer, G. L. & Hansen, J. W. & Phillips, J. G. & Mjelde, J. W. & Hill, H. & Love, A. & Potgieter, A., 2001. "Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 70(2-3), pages 515-553.
    2. Liu, Junguo & Williams, Jimmy R. & Zehnder, Alexander J.B. & Yang, Hong, 2007. "GEPIC - modelling wheat yield and crop water productivity with high resolution on a global scale," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 478-493, May.
    3. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 113-125, February.
    4. de Jager, J. M. & Potgieter, A. B. & van den Berg, W. J., 1998. "Framework for forecasting the extent and severity of drought in maize in the Free State Province of South Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 351-365, July.
    5. repec:ags:aaea22:335482 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and global trade reallocations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meinke, H. & Baethgen, W. E. & Carberry, P. S. & Donatelli, M. & Hammer, G. L. & Selvaraju, R. & Stockle, C. O., 2001. "Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 70(2-3), pages 493-513.
    2. Mérel, Pierre & Paroissien, Emmanuel & Gammans, Matthew, 2024. "Sufficient statistics for climate change counterfactuals," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Ren, Dongyang & Xu, Xu & Engel, Bernard & Huang, Quanzhong & Xiong, Yunwu & Huo, Zailin & Huang, Guanhua, 2021. "A comprehensive analysis of water productivity in natural vegetation and various crops coexistent agro-ecosystems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    4. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    5. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Doro, Luca & Giraldo, Luca & Ledda, Luigi & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Roggero, Pier Paolo, 2013. "Adapting to uncertainty associated with short-term climate variability changes in irrigated Mediterranean farming systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-12.
    6. Charlotte Fabri & Sam Vermeulen & Steven Van Passel & Sergei Schaub, 2024. "Crop diversification and the effect of weather shocks on Italian farmers' income and income risk," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(3), pages 955-980, September.
    7. Zamani, Omid & Azadi, Hossein & Mortazavi, Seyed Abolghasem & Balali, Hamid & Moghaddam, Saghi Movahhed & Jurik, Lubos, 2021. "The impact of water-pricing policies on water productivity: Evidence of agriculture sector in Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    8. Scheierling, Susanne M. & Treguer, David O. & Booker, James F. & Decker, Elisabeth, 2014. "How to assess agricultural water productivity ? looking for water in the agricultural productivity and efficiency literature," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6982, The World Bank.
    9. He, Xi, 2018. "Bigger Farms and Bigger Food Firms-The Agricultural Origin of Industrial Concentration in the Food Sector," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274206, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Joshua Graff Zivin & Solomon M. Hsiang & Matthew Neidell, 2018. "Temperature and Human Capital in the Short and Long Run," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 77-105.
    11. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Arfaoui, Nadia, 2023. "Exploring downside risk dependence across energy markets: Electricity, conventional energy, carbon, and clean energy during episodes of market crises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    12. Geoffrey Heal, 2008. "Climate Economics: A Meta-Review and Some Suggestions," NBER Working Papers 13927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Farnaz Pourzand & Kendom Bell, 2021. "How climate affects agricultural land values in Aotearoa New Zealand," Working Papers 21_16, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    14. Sheng, Yu & Zhao, Shiji & Yang, Sansi, 2021. "Weather shocks, adaptation and agricultural TFP: A cross-region comparison of Australian Broadacre farms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    15. Francisco Costa & Fabien Forge & Jason Garred & João Paulo Pessoa, 2023. "The Impact of Climate Change on Risk and Return in Indian Agriculture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(1), pages 1-27, May.
    16. Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Wossink, Ada & Hall, Alastair, 2022. "The impacts of climate change on agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa: A spatial panel data approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    17. Meyer, Kevin & Keiser, David A., 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change Through Tile Drainage: A Structural Ricardian Analysis," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235932, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Hong Wu & Donald Wilhite, 2004. "An Operational Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment Model for Nebraska, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 33(1), pages 1-21, September.
    19. Eric Njuki & Boris E Bravo-Ureta & Christopher J O’Donnell, 2018. "A new look at the decomposition of agricultural productivity growth incorporating weather effects," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, February.
    20. Jianhong Mu & Bruce McCarl & Anne Wein, 2013. "Adaptation to climate change: changes in farmland use and stocking rate in the U.S," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(6), pages 713-730, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2023:i:1:p:293-:d:1309459. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.