Impact Mechanism and Effect of Agricultural Land Transfer on Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China: Evidence from Mediating Effect Test and Panel Threshold Regression Model

In order to identify the mechanism and effect of agricultural land transfer on agricultural carbon emissions, a study was conducted by analyzing the panel data of 30 provincial-level administrative regions from 2005 to 2019. Both the intermediary effect model and panel threshold regression model are applied to test the correlation between agricultural land transfer and agricultural carbon emissions, which provides some clarity on the mechanism of agricultural land transfer affecting agricultural carbon emissions and its future trends. The research results are as follows. Firstly, agricultural land transfer has a positive effect on agricultural carbon emissions, and agricultural factor input plays a mediating role between agricultural land transfer and agricultural carbon emissions. More specifically, the input of agricultural chemical elements has a positive impact on agricultural carbon emissions, while the input of agricultural machinery elements has a negative impact on agricultural carbon emissions. Secondly, under the threshold constraint of the urbanization level, the relationship between agricultural land transfer and agricultural carbon emissions is characterized by an inverted “U” shape, with a threshold value of 0.73. In view of these findings, more attention should be directed to addressing the negative impact of agricultural land transfer on the ecological environment. Furthermore, various targeted measures should be taken to reduce the ecological risk carried by agricultural land transfer, to increase the effort made on achieving the goals of agricultural carbon emission reduction, and to promote the green and sustainable development of the agricultural industry.