IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i5p2868-d512008.html

The Sustainability of Thailand’s Protected-Area System under Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Nirunrut Pomoim

    (Center for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun 666303, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Robert J. Zomer

    (Center for Mountain Futures, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650201, China)

  • Alice C. Hughes

    (Center for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun 666303, China
    Center of Conservation Biology, Core Botanical Gardens, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun 666303, China)

  • Richard T. Corlett

    (Center for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun 666303, China
    Center of Conservation Biology, Core Botanical Gardens, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun 666303, China)

Abstract

Protected areas are the backbone of biodiversity conservation but vulnerable to climate change. Thailand has a large and well-planned protected area system, covering most remaining natural vegetation. A statistically derived global environmental stratification (GEnS) was used to predict changes in bioclimatic conditions across the protected area system for 2050 and 2070, based on projections from three CMIP5 earth system models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Five bioclimatic zones were identified composed of 28 strata. Substantial spatial reorganization of bioclimates is projected in the next 50 years, even under RCP2.6, while under RCP8.5 the average upward shift for all zones by 2070 is 328–483 m and the coolest zone disappears with two models. Overall, 7.9–31.0% of Thailand’s land area will change zone by 2070, and 31.7–90.2% will change stratum. The consequences for biodiversity are less clear, particularly in the lowlands where the existing vegetation mosaic is determined largely by factors other than climate. Increasing connectivity of protected areas along temperature and rainfall gradients would allow species to migrate in response to climate change, but this will be difficult in much of Thailand. For isolated protected areas and species that cannot move fast enough, more active, species-specific interventions may be necessary.

Suggested Citation

  • Nirunrut Pomoim & Robert J. Zomer & Alice C. Hughes & Richard T. Corlett, 2021. "The Sustainability of Thailand’s Protected-Area System under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-16, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:5:p:2868-:d:512008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/5/2868/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/5/2868/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    2. Samuel Hoffmann & Severin D. H. Irl & Carl Beierkuhnlein, 2019. "Predicted climate shifts within terrestrial protected areas worldwide," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Robert Zomer & Antonio Trabucco & Marc Metzger & Mingcheng Wang & Krishna Oli & Jianchu Xu, 2014. "Projected climate change impacts on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions within the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China, India, Nepal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 445-460, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Chrisna Satriagasa & Piyapong Tongdeenok & Naruemol Kaewjampa, 2023. "Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using SWAT and HEC-RAS Model under CMIP5 Climate Projection in Upper Nan Watershed, Thailand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    2. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.
    3. T.M.L. Wigley, 2018. "The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 31-45, March.
    4. repec:ags:aaea22:343581 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Islam, AFM Tariqul & Islam, AKM Saiful & Islam, GM Tarekul & Bala, Sujit Kumar & Salehin, Mashfiqus & Choudhury, Apurba Kanti & Dey, Nepal C. & Hossain, Akbar, 2022. "Adaptation strategies to increase water productivity of wheat under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    6. Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Stochastic Kaya model and its applications," MPRA Paper 55099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.
    9. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    10. Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem & Waisman, Henri & Guivarch, Céline & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2012. "Mitigation costs in second-best economies: time profile of emission reductions and sequencing of accompanying measures," Conference papers 332206, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Schaeffer, Michiel & Gohar, Laila & Kriegler, Elmar & Lowe, Jason & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2015. "Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 257-268.
    12. Kokou Amega & Yendoubé Laré & Ramchandra Bhandari & Yacouba Moumouni & Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Saidou Madougou, 2022. "Solar Energy Powered Decentralized Smart-Grid for Sustainable Energy Supply in Low-Income Countries: Analysis Considering Climate Change Influences in Togo," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-24, December.
    13. Jung-A Yang & Sooyoul Kim & Sangyoung Son & Nobuhito Mori & Hajime Mase, 2020. "Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 425-442, September.
    14. De Cian, Enrica & Wing, Ian Sue, "undated". "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," EIA: Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation 232222, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    15. Guo, Jinggang & Prestemon, Jeffrey & Johnston, Craig, 2023. "Forest market outlook in the Southern United States," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    16. Yi Yao & Yusuke Satoh & Nicole Maanen & Sabin Taranu & Jessica Keune & Steven J. Hertog & Seppe Lampe & David M. Lawrence & William J. Sacks & Yoshihide Wada & Agnès Ducharne & Benjamin I. Cook & Soni, 2025. "Compounding future escalation of emissions- and irrigation-induced increases in humid-heat stress," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    17. Fahad Saeed & Mansour Almazroui & Nazrul Islam & Mariam Saleh Khan, 2017. "Intensification of future heat waves in Pakistan: a study using CORDEX regional climate models ensemble," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1635-1647, July.
    18. Zhongwen Xu & Liming Yao & Yin Long, 2020. "Climatic Impact Toward Regional Water Allocation and Transfer Strategies from Economic, Social and Environmental Perspectives," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-17, November.
    19. Vizinho, André & Avelar, David & Fonseca, Ana Lúcia & Carvalho, Silvia & Sucena-Paiva, Leonor & Pinho, Pedro & Nunes, Alice & Branquinho, Cristina & Vasconcelos, Ana Cátia & Santos, Filipe Duarte & Ro, 2021. "Framing the application of Adaptation Pathways for agroforestry in Mediterranean drylands," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    20. Bianca Biess & Lukas Gudmundsson & Sonia I. Seneviratne, 2026. "Global economic exposure to climate change amplified by spatially compounding climate extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 17(1), pages 1-11, December.
    21. Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2014. "Climate Proofing ADB's Investments in the Transport Sector: Experiences and Opportunities," ADB Reports RPT146741-2, Asian Development Bank (ADB).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:5:p:2868-:d:512008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.