IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i6p5276-d1099033.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using SWAT and HEC-RAS Model under CMIP5 Climate Projection in Upper Nan Watershed, Thailand

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Chrisna Satriagasa

    (Watershed Management and Environment Program, Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University, Bangkok 10900, Thailand)

  • Piyapong Tongdeenok

    (Watershed Management and Environment Program, Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University, Bangkok 10900, Thailand)

  • Naruemol Kaewjampa

    (Watershed Management and Environment Program, Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University, Bangkok 10900, Thailand)

Abstract

Climate change will affect Southeast Asian countries, particularly Thailand. There are still insufficient studies on rainfall, streamflow, and future floods in the Upper Nan Watershed, northern Thailand. This study examined how future climate change will affect the rainfall, streamflow, and flooding in the Upper Nan Watershed. SWAT and HEC-RAS models were utilized to assess the future streamflow and flooding in this area. The models used data from 1980–2020, which were taken from seven Upper Nan meteorological stations and two discharge stations. In this study, the impact of future climate change was predicted using three GCMs, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The historical data analyzed in this study indicated that rainfall in the study area has a positive trend. Climate change will increase further, from 18% to 19%, which will cause more fluctuations and lead to wetter conditions, both in the wet and dry seasons. Climate change delayed the hydrograph peak and the SWAT-modelled streamflow in the N1 and N64 stations by between 0.3% and 5.1%. RCP8.5 inundated all of the stations more than RCP4.5. Our models showed that in the medium future (2041–2060), the inundated area will be similar to that during the 100-year flood probability. Thus, monitoring and preparation are necessary to avoid repeating the considerable 2011 flood losses in Thailand.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Chrisna Satriagasa & Piyapong Tongdeenok & Naruemol Kaewjampa, 2023. "Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using SWAT and HEC-RAS Model under CMIP5 Climate Projection in Upper Nan Watershed, Thailand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:6:p:5276-:d:1099033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/6/5276/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/6/5276/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean Hounkpè & Bernd Diekkrüger & Abel A. Afouda & Luc Olivier Crepin Sintondji, 2019. "Land use change increases flood hazard: a multi-modelling approach to assess change in flood characteristics driven by socio-economic land use change scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(3), pages 1021-1050, September.
    2. Francesco Dottori & Wojciech Szewczyk & Juan-Carlos Ciscar & Fang Zhao & Lorenzo Alfieri & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Alessandra Bianchi & Ignazio Mongelli & Katja Frieler & Richard A. Betts & Luc Feyen, 2018. "Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(9), pages 781-786, September.
    3. Jakob Zscheischler & Seth Westra & Bart J. J. M. Hurk & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Philip J. Ward & Andy Pitman & Amir AghaKouchak & David N. Bresch & Michael Leonard & Thomas Wahl & Xuebin Zhang, 2018. "Future climate risk from compound events," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(6), pages 469-477, June.
    4. Zigeng Niu & Lan Feng & Xinxin Chen & Xiuping Yi, 2021. "Evaluation and Future Projection of Extreme Climate Events in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China Using Ensembled CMIP5 Models Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-26, June.
    5. Jakob Zscheischler & Seth Westra & Bart J. J. M. Hurk & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Philip J. Ward & Andy Pitman & Amir AghaKouchak & David N. Bresch & Michael Leonard & Thomas Wahl & Xuebin Zhang, 2018. "Author Correction: Future climate risk from compound events," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 750-750, August.
    6. Francesco Dottori & Wojciech Szewczyk & Juan-Carlos Ciscar & Fang Zhao & Lorenzo Alfieri & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Alessandra Bianchi & Ignazio Mongelli & Katja Frieler & Richard A. Betts & Luc Feyen, 2018. "Author Correction: Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(11), pages 1021-1021, November.
    7. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
    8. Kawin Thamtanajit, 2020. "The Impacts Of Natural Disaster On Student Achievement: Evidence From Severe Floods in Thailand," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 54(4), pages 129-143, October-D.
    9. Matthew Collins & Richard E. Chandler & Peter M. Cox & John M. Huthnance & Jonathan Rougier & David B. Stephenson, 2012. "Quantifying future climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 403-409, June.
    10. Nirunrut Pomoim & Robert J. Zomer & Alice C. Hughes & Richard T. Corlett, 2021. "The Sustainability of Thailand’s Protected-Area System under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-16, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weiqing Han & Lei Zhang & Gerald A. Meehl & Shoichiro Kido & Tomoki Tozuka & Yuanlong Li & Michael J. McPhaden & Aixue Hu & Anny Cazenave & Nan Rosenbloom & Gary Strand & B. Jason West & Wen Xing, 2022. "Sea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Lena I. Fuldauer & Scott Thacker & Robyn A. Haggis & Francesco Fuso-Nerini & Robert J. Nicholls & Jim W. Hall, 2022. "Targeting climate adaptation to safeguard and advance the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Zhang, Yitong & Hao, Zengchao & Zhang, Yu, 2023. "Agricultural risk assessment of compound dry and hot events in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    4. J. J. Wijetunge & N. G. P. B. Neluwala, 2023. "Compound flood hazard assessment and analysis due to tropical cyclone-induced storm surges, waves and precipitation: a case study for coastal lowlands of Kelani river basin in Sri Lanka," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3979-4007, April.
    5. Kuik, Onno & Zhou, Fujin & Ciullo, Alessio & Brusselaers, Jan, 2022. "How vulnerable is Europe to severe climate-related natural disasters abroad? A dynamic CGE analysis of the international financial and economic impacts of a large hurricane in the southern USA," Conference papers 333438, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Laura Devitt & Jeffrey Neal & Gemma Coxon & James Savage & Thorsten Wagener, 2023. "Flood hazard potential reveals global floodplain settlement patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Haidong Zhao & Lina Zhang & M. B. Kirkham & Stephen M. Welch & John W. Nielsen-Gammon & Guihua Bai & Jiebo Luo & Daniel A. Andresen & Charles W. Rice & Nenghan Wan & Romulo P. Lollato & Dianfeng Zheng, 2022. "U.S. winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Isabel Dorado-Liñán & Blanca Ayarzagüena & Flurin Babst & Guobao Xu & Luis Gil & Giovanna Battipaglia & Allan Buras & Vojtěch Čada & J. Julio Camarero & Liam Cavin & Hugues Claessens & Igor Drobyshev , 2022. "Jet stream position explains regional anomalies in European beech forest productivity and tree growth," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Veruska Muccione & Thomas Lontzek & Christian Huggel & Philipp Ott & Nadine Salzmann, 2023. "An application of dynamic programming to local adaptation decision-making," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 523-544, October.
    10. Thomas, J. & Brunette, M. & Leblois, A., 2022. "The determinants of adapting forest management practices to climate change: Lessons from a survey of French private forest owners," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    11. Shala, Iliriana & Schumacher, Benno, 2022. "The impact of natural disasters on banks' impairment flow: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 36/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Arthur Moses & Jean E. T. McLain & Aminata Kilungo & Robert A. Root & Leif Abrell & Sanlyn Buxner & Flor Sandoval & Theresa Foley & Miriam Jones & Mónica D. Ramírez-Andreotta, 2022. "Minding the gap: socio-demographic factors linked to the perception of environmental pollution, water harvesting infrastructure, and gardening characteristics," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 12(3), pages 594-610, September.
    13. Mahshid Ghanbari & Mazdak Arabi & Matei Georgescu & Ashley M. Broadbent, 2023. "The role of climate change and urban development on compound dry-hot extremes across US cities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    14. Luke J. Harrington & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2021. "Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    15. Zhang, Yu & Hao, Zengchao & Feng, Sifang & Zhang, Xuan & Hao, Fanghua, 2022. "Changes and driving factors of compound agricultural droughts and hot events in eastern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    16. Lusheng Li & Lili Zhao & Yanbin Li, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Meteorological and Agricultural Droughts in China: Change Patterns and Causes," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-16, January.
    17. Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler & Qinhan Zhu & Karina Reiter & Alessio Ciullo, 2023. "Challenges of instruments that should tackle multi-hazard and multi-risk situations: an assessment of the recent reforms of the European Solidarity Fund and the Solidarity and Emergency Aid Reserve," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 28(8), pages 1-16, December.
    18. Fekete, Alexander & Fuchs, Sven & Garschagen, Matthias & Hutter, Gérard & Klepp, Silja & Lüder, Catharina & Neise, Thomas & Sett, Dominic & von Elverfeldt, Kirsten & Wannewitz, Mia, 2022. "Adjustment or transformation? Disaster risk intervention examples from Austria, Indonesia, Kiribati and South Africa," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    19. Roberto L. Salomón & Richard L. Peters & Roman Zweifel & Ute G. W. Sass-Klaassen & Annemiek I. Stegehuis & Marko Smiljanic & Rafael Poyatos & Flurin Babst & Emil Cienciala & Patrick Fonti & Bas J. W. , 2022. "The 2018 European heatwave led to stem dehydration but not to consistent growth reductions in forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    20. Prager, Steven D. & Wiebe, Keith D., 2022. "Strategic foresight in One CGIAR: Gaps and needs in approaches and capacity," Other briefs January 2022, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:6:p:5276-:d:1099033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.