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Projected climate change impacts on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions within the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China, India, Nepal

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  • Robert Zomer
  • Antonio Trabucco
  • Marc Metzger
  • Mingcheng Wang
  • Krishna Oli
  • Jianchu Xu

Abstract

Rapidly accelerating climate change in the Himalaya is projected to have major implications for montane species, ecosystems, and mountain farming and pastoral systems. A geospatial modeling approach based on a global environmental stratification is used to explore potential impacts of projected climate change on the spatial distribution of bioclimatic strata and ecoregions within the transboundary Kailash Sacred Landscape (KSL) of China, India and Nepal. Twenty-eight strata, comprising seven bioclimatic zones, were aggregated to develop an ecoregional classification of 12 ecoregions (generally defined by their potential dominant vegetation type), based upon vegetation and landcover characteristics. Projected climate change impacts were modeled by reconstructing the stratification based upon an ensemble of 19 Earth System Models (CIMP5) across four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios (i.e. 63 impact simulations), and identifying the change in spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Large and substantial shifts in bioclimatic conditions can be expected throughout the KSL area by the year 2050, within all bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Over 76 % of the total area may shift to a different stratum, 55 % to a different bioclimatic zone, and 36.6 % to a different ecoregion. Potential impacts include upward shift in mean elevation of bioclimatic zones (357 m) and ecoregions (371 m), decreases in area of the highest elevation zones and ecoregions, large expansion of the lower tropical and sub-tropical zones and ecoregions, and the disappearance of several strata representing unique bioclimatic conditions within the KSL, with potentially high levels of biotic perturbance by 2050, and a high likelihood of major consequences for biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, conservation efforts and sustainable development policies in the region. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • Robert Zomer & Antonio Trabucco & Marc Metzger & Mingcheng Wang & Krishna Oli & Jianchu Xu, 2014. "Projected climate change impacts on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions within the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China, India, Nepal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 445-460, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:125:y:2014:i:3:p:445-460
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1176-2
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    1. R. K. Maikhuri & K. S. Rao & R. L. Semwal, 2001. "Changing scenario of Himalayan agroecosystems: loss of agrobiodiversity, an indicator of environmental change in Central Himalaya, India," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 23-39, March.
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    3. Wilfried Thuiller, 2007. "Climate change and the ecologist," Nature, Nature, vol. 448(7153), pages 550-552, August.
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    1. Dipesh Chapagain & Sanita Dhaubanjar & Luna Bharati, 2021. "Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 1-23, September.
    2. Vishwas Chitale & Ramesh Silwal & Mir Matin, 2018. "Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Distribution of Major Non-Timber Forest Plants in Chitwan Annapurna Landscape, Nepal," Resources, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-12, October.
    3. Nirunrut Pomoim & Robert J. Zomer & Alice C. Hughes & Richard T. Corlett, 2021. "The Sustainability of Thailand’s Protected-Area System under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-16, March.
    4. Saudamini Das, "undated". "Evaluating the Role of Media in Averting Heat Stroke Mortality: A Daily Panel Data Analysis," Working papers 102, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    5. Irfan Rashid & Shakil Romshoo & Rajiv Chaturvedi & N. Ravindranath & Raman Sukumar & Mathangi Jayaraman & Thatiparthi Lakshmi & Jagmohan Sharma, 2015. "Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 601-613, October.
    6. Yuyoung Choi & Chul-Hee Lim & Jieun Ryu & Seong Woo Jeon, 2017. "Bioclimatic Classification of Northeast Asia Reflecting Social Factors: Development and Characterization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-18, June.
    7. Ludovic Touzé‐Peiffer & Anouk Barberousse & Hervé Le Treut, 2020. "The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project: History, uses, and structural effects on climate research," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), July.

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