IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i9p3612-d352230.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Approaches for Short-/Long-Term Electricity Load Forecasting in Cyprus

Author

Listed:
  • Davut Solyali

    (Electric Vehicle Development Center, Eastern Mediterranean University, 99628 Famagusta, North Cyprus, Turkey)

Abstract

Estimating the electricity load is a crucial task in the planning of power generation systems and the efficient operation and sustainable growth of modern electricity supply networks. Especially with the advent of smart grids, the need for fairly precise and highly reliable estimation of electricity load is greater than ever. It is a challenging task to estimate the electricity load with high precision. Many energy demand management methods are used to estimate future energy demands correctly. Machine learning methods are well adapted to the nature of the electrical load, as they can model complicated nonlinear connections through a learning process containing historical data patterns. Many scientists have used machine learning (ML) to anticipate failure before it occurs as well as predict the outcome. ML is an artificial intelligence (AI) subdomain that involves studying and developing mathematical algorithms to understand data or obtain data directly without relying on a prearranged model algorithm. ML is applied in all industries. In this paper, machine learning strategies including artificial neural network (ANN), multiple linear regression (MLR), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and support vector machine (SVM) were used to estimate electricity demand and propose criteria for power generation in Cyprus. The simulations were adapted to real historical data explaining the electricity usage in 2016 and 2107 with long-term and short-term analysis. It was observed that electricity load is a result of temperature, humidity, solar irradiation, population, gross national income (GNI) per capita, and the electricity price per kilowatt-hour, which provide input parameters for the ML algorithms. Using electricity load data from Cyprus, the performance of the ML algorithms was thoroughly evaluated. The results of long-term and short-term studies show that SVM and ANN are comparatively superior to other ML methods, providing more reliable and precise outcomes in terms of fewer estimation errors for Cyprus’s time series forecasting criteria for power generation.

Suggested Citation

  • Davut Solyali, 2020. "A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Approaches for Short-/Long-Term Electricity Load Forecasting in Cyprus," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-34, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:9:p:3612-:d:352230
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/9/3612/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/9/3612/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahmad, Tanveer & Chen, Huanxin & Shair, Jan, 2018. "Water source heat pump energy demand prognosticate using disparate data-mining based approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 788-803.
    2. Ahmad, Tanveer & Chen, Huanxin & Huang, Ronggeng & Yabin, Guo & Wang, Jiangyu & Shair, Jan & Azeem Akram, Hafiz Muhammad & Hassnain Mohsan, Syed Agha & Kazim, Muhammad, 2018. "Supervised based machine learning models for short, medium and long-term energy prediction in distinct building environment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 17-32.
    3. Zachariadis, Theodoros & Pashourtidou, Nicoletta, 2007. "An empirical analysis of electricity consumption in Cyprus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 183-198, March.
    4. Zachariadis, Theodoros, 2010. "Forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030: The potential impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 744-750, February.
    5. Salah Bouktif & Ali Fiaz & Ali Ouni & Mohamed Adel Serhani, 2018. "Optimal Deep Learning LSTM Model for Electric Load Forecasting using Feature Selection and Genetic Algorithm: Comparison with Machine Learning Approaches †," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, June.
    6. Theodoros Zachariadis, 2014. "The Effect of Energy Efficiency Policies on the Medium-Term Energy Outlook of Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 8(1), pages 35-51, June.
    7. El-Baz, Wessam & Tzscheutschler, Peter, 2015. "Short-term smart learning electrical load prediction algorithm for home energy management systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 10-19.
    8. Braun, M.R. & Altan, H. & Beck, S.B.M., 2014. "Using regression analysis to predict the future energy consumption of a supermarket in the UK," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 305-313.
    9. Ferracuti, Francesco & Fonti, Alessandro & Ciabattoni, Lucio & Pizzuti, Stefano & Arteconi, Alessia & Helsen, Lieve & Comodi, Gabriele, 2017. "Data-driven models for short-term thermal behaviour prediction in real buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 1375-1387.
    10. Touretzky, Cara R. & Patil, Rakesh, 2015. "Building-level power demand forecasting framework using building specific inputs: Development and applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 466-477.
    11. Baris Yuce & Monjur Mourshed & Yacine Rezgui, 2017. "A Smart Forecasting Approach to District Energy Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-22, July.
    12. Chujie Tian & Jian Ma & Chunhong Zhang & Panpan Zhan, 2018. "A Deep Neural Network Model for Short-Term Load Forecast Based on Long Short-Term Memory Network and Convolutional Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Raza, Muhammad Qamar & Khosravi, Abbas, 2015. "A review on artificial intelligence based load demand forecasting techniques for smart grid and buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1352-1372.
    14. Fan, Cheng & Wang, Jiayuan & Gang, Wenjie & Li, Shenghan, 2019. "Assessment of deep recurrent neural network-based strategies for short-term building energy predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 700-710.
    15. Ömer Özgür Bozkurt & Göksel Biricik & Ziya Cihan Tayşi, 2017. "Artificial neural network and SARIMA based models for power load forecasting in Turkish electricity market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-24, April.
    16. Aydinalp, Merih & Ismet Ugursal, V. & Fung, Alan S., 2002. "Modeling of the appliance, lighting, and space-cooling energy consumptions in the residential sector using neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 87-110, February.
    17. Zúñiga, K.V. & Castilla, I. & Aguilar, R.M., 2014. "Using fuzzy logic to model the behavior of residential electrical utility customers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 384-393.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cecilia Martinez-Castillo & Gonzalo Astray & Juan Carlos Mejuto, 2021. "Modelling and Prediction of Monthly Global Irradiation Using Different Prediction Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Domenico Palladino & Iole Nardi & Cinzia Buratti, 2020. "Artificial Neural Network for the Thermal Comfort Index Prediction: Development of a New Simplified Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-27, September.
    3. Barja-Martinez, Sara & Aragüés-Peñalba, Mònica & Munné-Collado, Íngrid & Lloret-Gallego, Pau & Bullich-Massagué, Eduard & Villafafila-Robles, Roberto, 2021. "Artificial intelligence techniques for enabling Big Data services in distribution networks: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Hao Wang & Chen Peng & Bolin Liao & Xinwei Cao & Shuai Li, 2023. "Wind Power Forecasting Based on WaveNet and Multitask Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-22, July.
    5. Mehmood, Faiza & Ghani, Muhammad Usman & Ghafoor, Hina & Shahzadi, Rehab & Asim, Muhammad Nabeel & Mahmood, Waqar, 2022. "EGD-SNet: A computational search engine for predicting an end-to-end machine learning pipeline for Energy Generation & Demand Forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    6. Wang, Xinlin & Yao, Zhihao & Papaefthymiou, Marios, 2023. "A real-time electrical load forecasting and unsupervised anomaly detection framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 330(PA).
    7. Dana-Mihaela Petroșanu & Alexandru Pîrjan, 2020. "Electricity Consumption Forecasting Based on a Bidirectional Long-Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-31, December.
    8. Aneeque A. Mir & Mohammed Alghassab & Kafait Ullah & Zafar A. Khan & Yuehong Lu & Muhammad Imran, 2020. "A Review of Electricity Demand Forecasting in Low and Middle Income Countries: The Demand Determinants and Horizons," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-35, July.
    9. Hernandez-Matheus, Alejandro & Löschenbrand, Markus & Berg, Kjersti & Fuchs, Ida & Aragüés-Peñalba, Mònica & Bullich-Massagué, Eduard & Sumper, Andreas, 2022. "A systematic review of machine learning techniques related to local energy communities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    10. Nazila Pourhaji & Mohammad Asadpour & Ali Ahmadian & Ali Elkamel, 2022. "The Investigation of Monthly/Seasonal Data Clustering Impact on Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Accuracy: Ontario Province Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-14, March.
    11. Eduardo Machado & Tiago Pinto & Vanessa Guedes & Hugo Morais, 2021. "Electrical Load Demand Forecasting Using Feed-Forward Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-24, November.
    12. Nebiyu Kedir & Phuong H. D. Nguyen & Citlaly Pérez & Pedro Ponce & Aminah Robinson Fayek, 2023. "Systematic Literature Review on Fuzzy Hybrid Methods in Photovoltaic Solar Energy: Opportunities, Challenges, and Guidance for Implementation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-38, April.
    13. Şahin, Utkucan & Ballı, Serkan & Chen, Yan, 2021. "Forecasting seasonal electricity generation in European countries under Covid-19-induced lockdown using fractional grey prediction models and machine learning methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    14. Bibi Ibrahim & Luis Rabelo & Edgar Gutierrez-Franco & Nicolas Clavijo-Buritica, 2022. "Machine Learning for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-19, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmad, Tanveer & Chen, Huanxin, 2019. "Deep learning for multi-scale smart energy forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 98-112.
    2. Chen, Zhiwen & Deng, Qiao & Ren, Hao & Zhao, Zhengrun & Peng, Tao & Yang, Chunhua & Gui, Weihua, 2022. "A new energy consumption prediction method for chillers based on GraphSAGE by combining empirical knowledge and operating data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    3. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    4. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    5. Anna Kipping & Erik Trømborg, 2017. "Modeling Aggregate Hourly Energy Consumption in a Regional Building Stock," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, December.
    6. V. Y. Kondaiah & B. Saravanan, 2022. "Short-Term Load Forecasting with a Novel Wavelet-Based Ensemble Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
    7. Shree Krishna Acharya & Young-Min Wi & Jaehee Lee, 2019. "Short-Term Load Forecasting for a Single Household Based on Convolution Neural Networks Using Data Augmentation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    8. Fullerton, Thomas M. & Juarez, David A. & Walke, Adam G., 2012. "Residential electricity consumption in Seattle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1693-1699.
    9. Pinheiro, Marco G. & Madeira, Sara C. & Francisco, Alexandre P., 2023. "Short-term electricity load forecasting—A systematic approach from system level to secondary substations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    10. Roman V. Klyuev & Irbek D. Morgoev & Angelika D. Morgoeva & Oksana A. Gavrina & Nikita V. Martyushev & Egor A. Efremenkov & Qi Mengxu, 2022. "Methods of Forecasting Electric Energy Consumption: A Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-33, November.
    11. Ma, Weiwu & Fang, Song & Liu, Gang & Zhou, Ruoyu, 2017. "Modeling of district load forecasting for distributed energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 181-205.
    12. Federico Divina & Aude Gilson & Francisco Goméz-Vela & Miguel García Torres & José F. Torres, 2018. "Stacking Ensemble Learning for Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-31, April.
    13. Stanislaw Osowski & Robert Szmurlo & Krzysztof Siwek & Tomasz Ciechulski, 2022. "Neural Approaches to Short-Time Load Forecasting in Power Systems—A Comparative Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-21, April.
    14. Ng, Rong Wang & Begam, Kasim Mumtaj & Rajkumar, Rajprasad Kumar & Wong, Yee Wan & Chong, Lee Wai, 2021. "An improved self-organizing incremental neural network model for short-term time-series load prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    15. Bedi, Jatin & Toshniwal, Durga, 2021. "Can electricity demand lead to air pollution? A spatio-temporal analysis of electricity demand with climatic conditions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    16. Salari, Mahmoud & Javid, Roxana J., 2017. "Modeling household energy expenditure in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 822-832.
    17. Samer Chaaraoui & Matthias Bebber & Stefanie Meilinger & Silvan Rummeny & Thorsten Schneiders & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Harald Kunstmann, 2021. "Day-Ahead Electric Load Forecast for a Ghanaian Health Facility Using Different Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-22, January.
    18. Somu, Nivethitha & M R, Gauthama Raman & Ramamritham, Krithi, 2020. "A hybrid model for building energy consumption forecasting using long short term memory networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    19. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2021. "A Review of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, January.
    20. Sarah Hadri & Mehdi Najib & Mohamed Bakhouya & Youssef Fakhri & Mohamed El Arroussi, 2021. "Performance Evaluation of Forecasting Strategies for Electricity Consumption in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-17, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:9:p:3612-:d:352230. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.