IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i9p3265-d805761.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Neural Approaches to Short-Time Load Forecasting in Power Systems—A Comparative Study

Author

Listed:
  • Stanislaw Osowski

    (Institute of Electronic Systems, Faculty of Electronics, Military University of Technology, ul. gen. Sylwestra Kaliskiego 2, 00-908 Warsaw, Poland
    Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, pl. Politechniki 1, 00-661 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Robert Szmurlo

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, pl. Politechniki 1, 00-661 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Krzysztof Siwek

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, pl. Politechniki 1, 00-661 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Tomasz Ciechulski

    (Institute of Electronic Systems, Faculty of Electronics, Military University of Technology, ul. gen. Sylwestra Kaliskiego 2, 00-908 Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

Background: The purpose of the paper is to propose different arrangements of neural networks for short-time 24-h load forecasting in Power Systems. Methods: The study discusses and compares different techniques of data processing, applying the feedforward and recurrent neural structures. They include such networks as multilayer perceptron, radial basis function, support vector machine, self-organizing Kohonen networks, deep autoencoder, and recurrent deep LSTM structures. The important point in getting high-quality results is the composition of many solutions in the common ensemble and their fusion to create the final forecast of time series. The paper considers and compares different methods of fusing the individual results into the final forecast, including the averaging, application of independent component analysis, dynamic integration, and wavelet transformation. Results: The numerical experiments have shown a high advantage of using many individual predictors integrated into the ensemble which are responsible for the final forecast. Especially efficient is the application of non-standard wavelet application in the formation of an ensemble, as well as the use of LSTM as the basic prediction unit. The novelty of the paper is the critical comparative analysis of the time series prediction methods applied for load forecasting in the power system. The presented approach may be useful for the users involved in power system operation management.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanislaw Osowski & Robert Szmurlo & Krzysztof Siwek & Tomasz Ciechulski, 2022. "Neural Approaches to Short-Time Load Forecasting in Power Systems—A Comparative Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-21, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:9:p:3265-:d:805761
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/9/3265/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/9/3265/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jihoon Moon & Yongsung Kim & Minjae Son & Eenjun Hwang, 2018. "Hybrid Short-Term Load Forecasting Scheme Using Random Forest and Multilayer Perceptron," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-20, November.
    2. Hussein Jumma Jabir & Jiashen Teh & Dahaman Ishak & Hamza Abunima, 2018. "Impacts of Demand-Side Management on Electrical Power Systems: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Chujie Tian & Jian Ma & Chunhong Zhang & Panpan Zhan, 2018. "A Deep Neural Network Model for Short-Term Load Forecast Based on Long Short-Term Memory Network and Convolutional Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Salah Bouktif & Ali Fiaz & Ali Ouni & Mohamed Adel Serhani, 2018. "Optimal Deep Learning LSTM Model for Electric Load Forecasting using Feature Selection and Genetic Algorithm: Comparison with Machine Learning Approaches †," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, June.
    5. Bedi, Jatin & Toshniwal, Durga, 2019. "Deep learning framework to forecast electricity demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1312-1326.
    6. Peng Liu & Peijun Zheng & Ziyu Chen, 2019. "Deep Learning with Stacked Denoising Auto-Encoder for Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-15, June.
    7. Tomasz Ciechulski & Stanisław Osowski, 2020. "Deep Learning Approach to Power Demand Forecasting in Polish Power System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-13, November.
    8. Tomasz Ciechulski & Stanisław Osowski, 2021. "High Precision LSTM Model for Short-Time Load Forecasting in Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-15, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bartłomiej Mroczek & Paweł Pijarski, 2022. "Machine Learning in Operating of Low Voltage Future Grid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-30, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tomasz Ciechulski & Stanisław Osowski, 2020. "Deep Learning Approach to Power Demand Forecasting in Polish Power System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-13, November.
    2. Fatma Yaprakdal & M. Berkay Yılmaz & Mustafa Baysal & Amjad Anvari-Moghaddam, 2020. "A Deep Neural Network-Assisted Approach to Enhance Short-Term Optimal Operational Scheduling of a Microgrid," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-27, February.
    3. Shree Krishna Acharya & Young-Min Wi & Jaehee Lee, 2019. "Short-Term Load Forecasting for a Single Household Based on Convolution Neural Networks Using Data Augmentation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    4. Meng, Qinglong & Wei, Ying'an & Fan, Jingjing & Li, Yanbo & Zhao, Fan & Lei, Yu & Sun, Hang & Jiang, Le & Yu, Lingli, 2024. "Peak regulation strategies for ground source heat pump demand response of based on load forecasting: A case study of rural building in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    5. Pinheiro, Marco G. & Madeira, Sara C. & Francisco, Alexandre P., 2023. "Short-term electricity load forecasting—A systematic approach from system level to secondary substations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    6. Ng, Rong Wang & Begam, Kasim Mumtaj & Rajkumar, Rajprasad Kumar & Wong, Yee Wan & Chong, Lee Wai, 2021. "An improved self-organizing incremental neural network model for short-term time-series load prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    7. Thomas Steens & Jan-Simon Telle & Benedikt Hanke & Karsten von Maydell & Carsten Agert & Gian-Luca Di Modica & Bernd Engel & Matthias Grottke, 2021. "A Forecast-Based Load Management Approach for Commercial Buildings Demonstrated on an Integration of BEV," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-25, June.
    8. Davut Solyali, 2020. "A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Approaches for Short-/Long-Term Electricity Load Forecasting in Cyprus," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-34, April.
    9. Sungwoo Park & Jihoon Moon & Seungwon Jung & Seungmin Rho & Sung Wook Baik & Eenjun Hwang, 2020. "A Two-Stage Industrial Load Forecasting Scheme for Day-Ahead Combined Cooling, Heating and Power Scheduling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-23, January.
    10. Yi Yang & Zhihao Shang & Yao Chen & Yanhua Chen, 2020. "Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Multi-Step Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, January.
    11. Pedro M. R. Bento & Jose A. N. Pombo & Maria R. A. Calado & Silvio J. P. S. Mariano, 2021. "Stacking Ensemble Methodology Using Deep Learning and ARIMA Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-21, November.
    12. Yuhong Xie & Yuzuru Ueda & Masakazu Sugiyama, 2021. "A Two-Stage Short-Term Load Forecasting Method Using Long Short-Term Memory and Multilayer Perceptron," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-17, September.
    13. Guixiang Xue & Yu Pan & Tao Lin & Jiancai Song & Chengying Qi & Zhipan Wang, 2019. "District Heating Load Prediction Algorithm Based on Feature Fusion LSTM Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-21, June.
    14. Salam, Abdulwahed & El Hibaoui, Abdelaaziz, 2021. "Energy consumption prediction model with deep inception residual network inspiration and LSTM," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 97-109.
    15. Abdullah Alrasheedi & Abdulaziz Almalaq, 2022. "Hybrid Deep Learning Applied on Saudi Smart Grids for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-22, July.
    16. Robert Basmadjian & Amirhossein Shaafieyoun & Sahib Julka, 2021. "Day-Ahead Forecasting of the Percentage of Renewables Based on Time-Series Statistical Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-23, November.
    17. Peng Liu & Peijun Zheng & Ziyu Chen, 2019. "Deep Learning with Stacked Denoising Auto-Encoder for Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-15, June.
    18. Liu Lu & Wei Wei, 2023. "Influence of Public Sports Services on Residents’ Mental Health at Communities Level: New Insights from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-14, January.
    19. Younes Zahraoui & Tarmo Korõtko & Argo Rosin & Saad Mekhilef & Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian & Alex Stojcevski & Ibrahim Alhamrouni, 2024. "AI Applications to Enhance Resilience in Power Systems and Microgrids—A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-35, June.
    20. Md. Nazmul Hasan & Rafia Nishat Toma & Abdullah-Al Nahid & M M Manjurul Islam & Jong-Myon Kim, 2019. "Electricity Theft Detection in Smart Grid Systems: A CNN-LSTM Based Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-18, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:9:p:3265-:d:805761. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.