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Forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030: The potential impact of climate change

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  • Zachariadis, Theodoros

Abstract

This paper provides a forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030, based on econometric analysis of energy use as a function of macroeconomic variables, prices and weather conditions. If past trends continue electricity use is expected to triple in the coming 20-25 years, with the residential and commercial sectors increasing their already high shares in total consumption. Besides this reference scenario it was attempted to assess the impact of climate change on electricity use. According to official projections, the average temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean is expected to rise by about 1 °C by the year 2030. Using our econometrically estimated model, we calculated that electricity consumption in Cyprus may be about 2.9% higher in 2030 than in the reference scenario. This might lead to a welfare loss of 15 million Euros in 2020 and 45 million Euros in 2030; for the entire period 2008-2030 the present value of costs may exceed 200 million Euros (all expressed in constant Euros of 2007). Moreover, we assessed the additional peak electricity load requirements in the future because of climate change: extra load may amount to 65-75 Megawatts (MW) in the year 2020 and 85-95 MW in 2030.

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  • Zachariadis, Theodoros, 2010. "Forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030: The potential impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 744-750, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:2:p:744-750
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clements, Michael P & Madlener, Reinhard, 1999. "Seasonality, Cointegration, and Forecasting UK Residential Energy Demand," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 185-206, May.
    2. Zachariadis, Theodoros & Pashourtidou, Nicoletta, 2007. "An empirical analysis of electricity consumption in Cyprus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 183-198, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zachariadis, Theodoros & Hadjinicolaou, Panos, 2014. "The effect of climate change on electricity needs – A case study from Mediterranean Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 899-910.
    2. Theodoros, Zachariadis, 2011. "Medium-term energy outlook for Cyprus and its policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6631-6635, October.
    3. repec:pid:journl:v:55:y:2016:i:1:p:29-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Theodoros Zachariadis, 2012. "Climate Change in Cyprus: Impacts and Adaptation Policies," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 6(1), pages 21-37, June.
    5. Trotter, Ian Michael & Féres, José Gustavo & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland & de Hollanda, Lavínia Rocha, 2015. "Simulating Brazilian Electricity Demand Under Climate Change Scenarios," Working Papers in Applied Economics 208689, Universidade Federal de Vicosa, Departamento de Economia Rural.
    6. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    7. Roshan, Gh.R. & Ghanghermeh, A.A. & Attia, S., 2017. "Determining new threshold temperatures for cooling and heating degree day index of different climatic zones of Iran," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 156-167.
    8. Fullerton, Thomas M. & Juarez, David A. & Walke, Adam G., 2012. "Residential electricity consumption in Seattle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1693-1699.
    9. Zachariadis, Theodoros & Poullikkas, Andreas, 2012. "The costs of power outages: A case study from Cyprus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 630-641.

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    Keywords

    Degree-days Fuel prices Peak load;

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