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The effect of climate change on electricity needs – A case study from Mediterranean Europe

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  • Zachariadis, Theodoros
  • Hadjinicolaou, Panos

Abstract

This paper assesses additional electricity requirements and the associated costs in the Mediterranean island of Cyprus by the mid-21st century because of projected anthropogenic climate change, following an interdisciplinary approach that combines climate science with economics. An econometric model of electricity demand is used, in conjunction with climate projections from a state-of-the-art Global Circulation Model with a regional focus on the Eastern Mediterranean. Annual electricity demand is projected to rise by about 6% compared to a ‘no climate change’ case. Although these additional power requirements are not very remarkable on an annual basis, total costs up to 2050, which may exceed 730 million Euros at today's prices, imply that the country may need to forgo one or two years of economic growth in order to cope with extra electricity needs due to climate change. This outlook indicates that a reasonable future energy path in regions with Mediterranean climate would involve substantial deployment of solar-powered electricity generation, which can meet peak load requirements while reducing the country's energy dependence. Moreover, this forecast highlights the need for adaptation to climate change through investments in the improvement of the energy performance of the building stock.

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  • Zachariadis, Theodoros & Hadjinicolaou, Panos, 2014. "The effect of climate change on electricity needs – A case study from Mediterranean Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 899-910.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:76:y:2014:i:c:p:899-910
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.09.001
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    1. Theodoros Zachariadis, 2015. "How Can Cyprus Meet Its Energy and Climate Policy Commitments? The Importance of a Carbon Tax," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 9(2), pages 3-20, December.
    2. Mauree, Dasaraden & Naboni, Emanuele & Coccolo, Silvia & Perera, A.T.D. & Nik, Vahid M. & Scartezzini, Jean-Louis, 2019. "A review of assessment methods for the urban environment and its energy sustainability to guarantee climate adaptation of future cities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 733-746.
    3. Trotter, Ian Michael & Féres, José Gustavo & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland & de Hollanda, Lavínia Rocha, 2015. "Simulating Brazilian Electricity Demand Under Climate Change Scenarios," Working Papers in Applied Economics 208689, Universidade Federal de Vicosa, Departamento de Economia Rural.
    4. Fan, Jing-Li & Hu, Jia-Wei & Zhang, Xian, 2019. "Impacts of climate change on electricity demand in China: An empirical estimation based on panel data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 880-888.
    5. Theodoros Zachariadis & Apostolos Michopoulos & Yannis Vougiouklakis & Katerina Piripitsi & Christodoulos Ellinopoulos & Benjamin Struss, 2018. "Determination of Cost-Effective Energy Efficiency Measures in Buildings with the Aid of Multiple Indices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, January.
    6. Barman, Mayur & Dev Choudhury, N.B. & Sutradhar, Suman, 2018. "A regional hybrid GOA-SVM model based on similar day approach for short-term load forecasting in Assam, India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 710-720.
    7. Zhang, Guoqiang & Guo, Jifeng, 2020. "A novel ensemble method for hourly residential electricity consumption forecasting by imaging time series," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    8. Wang, Chengshan & Jiao, Bingqi & Guo, Li & Tian, Zhe & Niu, Jide & Li, Siwei, 2016. "Robust scheduling of building energy system under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 366-376.
    9. Theodoros Zachariadis, 2016. "Proposal for a Green Tax Reform in Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 10(2), pages 127-139, December.
    10. Mirlatifi, A.M. & Egelioglu, F. & Atikol, U., 2015. "An econometric model for annual peak demand for small utilities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 35-44.
    11. Zachariadis, Theodoros & Taibi, Emanuele, 2015. "Exploring drivers of energy demand in Cyprus – Scenarios and policy options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 166-175.
    12. Chung, Mo & Park, Hwa-Choon, 2015. "Comparison of building energy demand for hotels, hospitals, and offices in Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(P3), pages 383-393.
    13. Ahmed, T. & Vu, D.H. & Muttaqi, K.M. & Agalgaonkar, A.P., 2018. "Load forecasting under changing climatic conditions for the city of Sydney, Australia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 911-919.
    14. Tyralis, Hristos & Karakatsanis, Georgios & Tzouka, Katerina & Mamassis, Nikos, 2017. "Exploratory data analysis of the electrical energy demand in the time domain in Greece," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 902-918.
    15. Rodrigues, Eugénio & Fernandes, Marco S., 2020. "Overheating risk in Mediterranean residential buildings: Comparison of current and future climate scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).

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