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Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East


  • J. Lelieveld


  • P. Hadjinicolaou
  • E. Kostopoulou
  • J. Chenoweth
  • M. Maayar
  • C. Giannakopoulos
  • C. Hannides
  • M. Lange
  • M. Tanarhte
  • E. Tyrlis
  • E. Xoplaki


The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions. Since the region is diverse and extreme climate conditions already common, the impacts will be disproportional. We have analyzed long-term meteorological datasets along with regional climate model projections for the 21st century, based on the intermediate IPCC SRES scenario A1B. This suggests a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of about 3.5–7°C between the 1961–1990 reference period and the period 2070–2099. Daytime maximum temperatures appear to increase most rapidly in the northern part of the region, i.e. the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. Hot summer conditions that rarely occurred in the reference period may become the norm by the middle and the end of the 21st century. Projected precipitation changes are quite variable. Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe – Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase. In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall. Anticipated regional impacts of climate change include heat stress, associated with poor air quality in the urban environment, and increasing scarcity of fresh water in the Levant. Copyright The Author(s) 2012

Suggested Citation

  • J. Lelieveld & P. Hadjinicolaou & E. Kostopoulou & J. Chenoweth & M. Maayar & C. Giannakopoulos & C. Hannides & M. Lange & M. Tanarhte & E. Tyrlis & E. Xoplaki, 2012. "Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 667-687, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:114:y:2012:i:3:p:667-687
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0418-4

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    Cited by:

    1. Zachariadis, Theodoros & Hadjinicolaou, Panos, 2014. "The effect of climate change on electricity needs – A case study from Mediterranean Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 899-910.
    2. J. Lelieveld & Y. Proestos & P. Hadjinicolaou & M. Tanarhte & E. Tyrlis & G. Zittis, 2016. "Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 245-260, July.
    3. Abdullah Al Mamoon & Niels E. Joergensen & Ataur Rahman & Hassan Qasem, 2016. "Design rainfall in Qatar: sensitivity to climate change scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(3), pages 1797-1810, April.
    4. Nouri, Milad & Homaee, Mehdi & Bannayan, Mohammad & Hoogenboom, Gerrit, 2016. "Towards modeling soil texture-specific sensitivity of wheat yield and water balance to climatic changes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 248-263.
    5. Elias Giannakis & Adriana Bruggeman & Dimitra Poulou & Christos Zoumides & Marinos Eliades, 2016. "Linear Parks along Urban Rivers: Perceptions of Thermal Comfort and Climate Change Adaptation in Cyprus," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(10), pages 1-16, October.
    6. Zachariadis, Theodoros & Taibi, Emanuele, 2015. "Exploring drivers of energy demand in Cyprus – Scenarios and policy options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 166-175.
    7. Turhan, Ethemcan, 2016. "Value-based adaptation to climate change and divergent developmentalisms in Turkish agriculture," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 140-148.
    8. Alyami, Saleh. H. & Rezgui, Yacine & Kwan, Alan, 2013. "Developing sustainable building assessment scheme for Saudi Arabia: Delphi consultation approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 43-54.
    9. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:7:p:1237-:d:104754 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:1:p:191-:d:126757 is not listed on IDEAS

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