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A Quantitative Analysis of Socio-Economic Determinants Influencing Crop Drought Vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

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  • Bahareh Kamali

    (Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, 8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland)

  • Karim C. Abbaspour

    (Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, 8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland)

  • Bernhard Wehrli

    (Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Hong Yang

    (Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, 8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland
    Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Basel, 4056 Basel, Switzerland)

Abstract

Drought events have significant impacts on agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), as agricultural production in most of the countries relies on precipitation. Socio-economic factors have a tremendous influence on whether a farmer or a nation can adapt to these climate stressors. This study aims to examine the extent to which these factors affect maize vulnerability to drought in SSA. To differentiate sensitive regions from resilient ones, we defined a crop drought vulnerability index ( CDVI ) calculated by comparing recorded yield with expected yield simulated by the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model during 1990–2012. We then assessed the relationship between CDVI and potential socio-economic variables using regression techniques and identified the influencing variables. The results show that the level of fertilizer use is a highly influential factor on vulnerability. Additionally, countries with higher food production index and better infrastructure are more resilient to drought. The role of the government effectiveness variable was less apparent across the SSA countries due to being generally stationary. Improving adaptations to drought through investing in infrastructure, improving fertilizer distribution, and fostering economic development would contribute to drought resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahareh Kamali & Karim C. Abbaspour & Bernhard Wehrli & Hong Yang, 2019. "A Quantitative Analysis of Socio-Economic Determinants Influencing Crop Drought Vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-18, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:21:p:6135-:d:283205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fragaszy, S. & Fraj, M. B. & McKee, M. & Jobbins, G. & Al-Karablieh, E. & Bergaoui, K. & Ghanim, A. & Lawrenson, L. & McDonnell, Rachael, "undated". "MENAdrought synthesis of drought vulnerability in Jordan: final report. Project report prepared by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) for the Bureau for the Middle East of the United ," IWMI Reports 329160, International Water Management Institute.
    2. Alpo Kapuka & Tomáš Hlásny, 2020. "Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Namibia: A District-Based Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Huafeng Xu & Kexin Xu & Yingjie Yang, 2021. "Risk assessment model of agricultural drought disaster based on grey matter-element analysis theory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2693-2707, July.
    4. Will McConnell, 2020. "Introduction to Sustainability Journal Special Edition “Global Warming and Sustainability Issues”," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-7, July.

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