IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i18p4901-d265159.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projections and Recommendations for Energy Structure and Industrial Structure Development in China through 2030: A System Dynamics Model

Author

Listed:
  • Song Han

    (Research Institute of Standards and Norms, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People’s Republic of China, Beijing 100835, China)

  • Changqing Lin

    (School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China)

  • Baosheng Zhang

    (School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China)

  • Arash Farnoosh

    (Center for Economics and Management, IFP School, 92852 Paris, France)

Abstract

In this research, we established a System Dynamics Model named “E&I-SD” to study the development of the energy structure and industrial structure in China from 2000 to 2030 using Vensim Simulation Software based on energy economy theory, system science theory and coordinated development theory. We used Direct Structure Test, Structure-oriented Behavior Test, and Behavior Pattern Test to ensure the optimal operation of the system. The model’s results showed that the indicators of total energy consumption, total added value of GDP after regulation, energy consumption per capita, and GDP per capita were on the rise in China, but emissions per unit of energy showed a downward trend. Separately, the model predicted average annual growth rates in China through 2030. Based on these findings, we proposed important policies for China’s sustainable development. Firstly, short- and long-term policy measures should be implemented to replace fossil fuels with clean energy. Secondly, the utilization efficiency of raw coal should be appraised future. The planning should provide for steady development and improvement of the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors. Thirdly, the mid- and long-term plans for development and management of various industrial sectors and the corresponding energy consumption should be based on technological trends. Finally, a market-oriented pricing mechanism for energy should be established in China as soon as possible.

Suggested Citation

  • Song Han & Changqing Lin & Baosheng Zhang & Arash Farnoosh, 2019. "Projections and Recommendations for Energy Structure and Industrial Structure Development in China through 2030: A System Dynamics Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-20, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:18:p:4901-:d:265159
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/18/4901/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/18/4901/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohamad Taghvaee, Vahid & Seifi Aloo, Alireza & Khodaparast Shirazi, Jalil, 2016. "Energy, Environment, and Economy Interactions in Iran with Cointegrated and ECM Simultaneous Model," MPRA Paper 70508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    3. Paul, Shyamal & Bhattacharya, Rabindra N., 2004. "Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in India: a note on conflicting results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 977-983, November.
    4. Bilgen, S., 2014. "Structure and environmental impact of global energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 890-902.
    5. Han, Zhi-Yong & Fan, Ying & Jiao, Jian-Ling & Yan, Ji-Sheng & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "Energy structure, marginal efficiency and substitution rate: An empirical study of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 935-942.
    6. Feng, Y.Y. & Chen, S.Q. & Zhang, L.X., 2013. "System dynamics modeling for urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A case study of Beijing, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 44-52.
    7. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan & Seong, Baek Seo, 2010. "How to do structural validity of a system dynamics type simulation model: The case of an energy policy model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2216-2224, May.
    8. Shahiduzzaman, Md & Alam, Khorshed, 2012. "Cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and output: Assessing the evidence from Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2182-2188.
    9. Zaman, Khalid & Abdullah, Alias bin & Khan, Anwar & Nasir, Mohammad Rusdi bin Mohd & Hamzah, Tengku Adeline Adura Tengku & Hussain, Saddam, 2016. "Dynamic linkages among energy consumption, environment, health and wealth in BRICS countries: Green growth key to sustainable development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1263-1271.
    10. Bildirici, Melike E. & Bakirtas, Tahsin, 2014. "The relationship among oil, natural gas and coal consumption and economic growth in BRICTS (Brazil, Russian, India, China, Turkey and South Africa) countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 134-144.
    11. Carmona, Mónica & Feria, Julia & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesus, 2017. "Energy consumption in the US reconsidered. Evidence across sources and economic sectors," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1055-1068.
    12. Tiba, Sofien & Omri, Anis, 2017. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy, environment and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1129-1146.
    13. Liu, Gengyuan & Yang, Zhifeng & Fath, Brian D. & Shi, Lei & Ulgiati, Sergio, 2017. "Time and space model of urban pollution migration: Economy-energy-environment nexus network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(P2), pages 96-114.
    14. Unknown, 2016. "Energy for Sustainable Development," Conference Proceedings 253270, Guru Arjan Dev Institute of Development Studies (IDSAsr).
    15. Ding, Qun & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Sanwal, Mukul, 2017. "The relationships between household consumption activities and energy consumption in china— An input-output analysis from the lifestyle perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 520-532.
    16. Fernández González, P. & Landajo, M. & Presno, M.J., 2014. "Multilevel LMDI decomposition of changes in aggregate energy consumption. A cross country analysis in the EU-27," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 576-584.
    17. Fotis, Panagiotis & Karkalakos, Sotiris & Asteriou, Dimitrios, 2017. "The relationship between energy demand and real GDP growth rate: The role of price asymmetries and spatial externalities within 34 countries across the globe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 69-84.
    18. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2003. "Energy consumption and GDP: causality relationship in G-7 countries and emerging markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 33-37, January.
    19. Suzuki, Soushi & Nijkamp, Peter, 2016. "An evaluation of energy-environment-economic efficiency for EU, APEC and ASEAN countries: Design of a Target-Oriented DFM model with fixed factors in Data Envelopment Analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 100-112.
    20. Ansari, Nastaran & Seifi, Abbas, 2013. "A system dynamics model for analyzing energy consumption and CO2 emission in Iranian cement industry under various production and export scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 75-89.
    21. Smil, V. & Kuz, T., 1977. "Energy/GDP relationships-- the elastic snaps," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 162-164, June.
    22. Feng, Taiwen & Sun, Linyan & Zhang, Ying, 2009. "The relationship between energy consumption structure, economic structure and energy intensity in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5475-5483, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wentao Lu & Zhenghui Fu & Yang Zhang & Yuxuan Qiao & Lei Yu & Yi Liu, 2021. "Integrated Planning for Regional Development Planning with Low Carbon Development Constraint under Uncertainty: A Case Study of Qingpu District, Shanghai," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Kassim, Fatima & Isik, Abdurrahman, 2020. "The link between energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies (1985-2017)," MPRA Paper 101601, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Honglei Shi & Guiling Wang & Wei Zhang & Feng Ma & Wenjing Lin & Menglei Ji, 2023. "Predicting the Potential of China’s Geothermal Energy in Industrial Development and Carbon Emission Reduction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-16, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Song Han & Changqing Lin & Baosheng Zhang & Arash Farnoosh, 2019. "Projections and Recommendations for Energy Structure and Industrial Structure Development in China through 2030: A System Dynamics Model," Post-Print hal-02408957, HAL.
    2. Ahmad, Ashfaq & Zhao, Yuhuan & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Bano, Sadia & Zhang, Zhonghua & Wang, Song & Liu, Ya, 2016. "Carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: An aggregate and disaggregate analysis of the Indian economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 131-143.
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shafiullah, Muhammad & Khalid, Usman & Song, Malin, 2020. "A nonparametric analysis of energy environmental Kuznets Curve in Chinese Provinces," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zakaria, Muhammad & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2018. "The energy consumption and economic growth nexus in top ten energy-consuming countries: Fresh evidence from using the quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 282-301.
    5. Obsatar Sinaga & Mohd Haizam Mohd Saudi & Djoko Roespinoedji & Mohd Shahril Ahmad Razimi, 2019. "The Dynamic Relationship between Natural Gas and Economic Growth: Evidence from Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 388-394.
    6. Ouyang, Yaofu & Li, Peng, 2018. "On the nexus of financial development, economic growth, and energy consumption in China: New perspective from a GMM panel VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 238-252.
    7. Rath, Badri Narayan & Akram, Vaseem & Bal, Debi Prasad & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2019. "Do fossil fuel and renewable energy consumption affect total factor productivity growth? Evidence from cross-country data with policy insights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 186-199.
    8. Shahateet, Mohammed Issa & Al-Majali, Khalid Ali & Al-Hahabashneh, Fedel, 2014. "Causality and Cointegration between Economic Growth and Energy Consumption: Econometric Evidence from Jordan," MPRA Paper 59067, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2014.
    9. Benkraiem, Ramzi & Lahiani, Amine & Miloudi, Anthony & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2019. "The asymmetric role of shadow economy in the energy-growth nexus in Bolivia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 405-417.
    10. Esseghir, Asma & Haouaoui Khouni, Leila, 2014. "Economic growth, energy consumption and sustainable development: The case of the Union for the Mediterranean countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 218-225.
    11. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sarwar, Suleman & Chen, Wei & Malik, Muhammad Nasir, 2017. "Dynamics of electricity consumption, oil price and economic growth: Global perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 256-270.
    12. Muhammad Shahbaz & Avik Sinha & Andreas Kontoleon, 2022. "Decomposing scale and technique effects of economic growth on energy consumption: Fresh evidence from developing economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1848-1869, April.
    13. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Eapen, Leena Mary & Nair, Sthanu R, 2021. "Electricity consumption and economic growth at the state and sectoral level in India: Evidence using heterogeneous panel data methods," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    14. Iftikhar Yasin & Nawaz Ahmad & M. Aslam Chaudhary, 2020. "Catechizing the Environmental-Impression of Urbanization, Financial Development, and Political Institutions: A Circumstance of Ecological Footprints in 110 Developed and Less-Developed Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 621-649, January.
    15. Xingpeng Chen & Guokui Wang & Xiaojia Guo & Jinxiu Fu, 2016. "An Analysis Based on SD Model for Energy-Related CO 2 Mitigation in the Chinese Household Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, December.
    16. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sinha, Avik & Kontoleon, Andreas, 2020. "Decomposing Scale and Technique Effects of Economic Growth on Energy Consumption: Fresh Evidence in Developing Economies," MPRA Paper 102111, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Jul 2020.
    17. Claudiu Cicea & Carmen Nadia Ciocoiu & Corina Marinescu, 2021. "Exploring the Research Regarding Energy–Economic Growth Relationship," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-23, May.
    18. Ackah, Ishmael, 2015. "On the relationship between energy consumption, productivity and economic growth: Evidence from Algeria, Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa," MPRA Paper 64887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Farzana Sharmin & Mohammed Robayet Khan & Mohammed Robayet Khan, 2016. "A Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Economic Growth in Africa," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 477-494.
    20. Dogan, Eyup & Sebri, Maamar & Turkekul, Berna, 2016. "Exploring the relationship between agricultural electricity consumption and output: New evidence from Turkish regional data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 370-377.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:18:p:4901-:d:265159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.