IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i17p4769-d262977.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Study on the Arable Land Demand for Food Security in China

Author

Listed:
  • Aiqi Chen

    (College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    Key Laboratory of Agricultural Land Quality, Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China, Beijing 100193, China)

  • Huaxiang He

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China)

  • Jin Wang

    (College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    Key Laboratory of Agricultural Land Quality, Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China, Beijing 100193, China)

  • Mu Li

    (College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    Key Laboratory of Agricultural Land Quality, Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China, Beijing 100193, China)

  • Qingchun Guan

    (College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    Key Laboratory of Agricultural Land Quality, Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China, Beijing 100193, China)

  • Jinmin Hao

    (College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    Key Laboratory of Agricultural Land Quality, Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China, Beijing 100193, China)

Abstract

Food security is the basis of social stability and development. Maintaining sufficient amounts of arable land is essential for China’s food security. In this paper, we consider the relationship between arable land demand to grain demand and production capacity. The changes in national population, grain production, and consumption from 2000 to 2015 are analyzed. Then, we forecast the respective possible changes in the future and accordingly forecast the arable land demand in different possible situations. The results show that the pressure to maintain sufficient amounts of arable land in 2030 may be greater than that in 2040.The higher pressure is due to larger population and lower production capacity. To ensure food security in China, we insist on maintaining 120 million ha of arable land, the “red line” for food security, and improve the arable land productivity to ensure domestic production and self-sufficiency. In addition, residents should be guided to cultivate sound food consumption habits in order to control per capita grain demand. Lastly, we should also make full use of international resources and markets to relieve the pressure on domestic resources and environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Aiqi Chen & Huaxiang He & Jin Wang & Mu Li & Qingchun Guan & Jinmin Hao, 2019. "A Study on the Arable Land Demand for Food Security in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-15, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:17:p:4769-:d:262977
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/17/4769/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/17/4769/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qiao, Ruibo & Li, Yu-ping & Cai, Yunlong, 2009. "Prediction of the Cultivated Land Demand Based on Logistic Equation - A Case of Zhejiang Province, China," Asian Agricultural Research, USA-China Science and Culture Media Corporation, vol. 1(08), pages 1-4, August.
    2. Yong-sheng Wang, 2019. "The Challenges and Strategies of Food Security under Rapid Urbanization in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-11, January.
    3. Xiangbin Kong, 2014. "China must protect high-quality arable land," Nature, Nature, vol. 506(7486), pages 7-7, February.
    4. Gerbens-Leenes, P. W. & Nonhebel, S., 2002. "Consumption patterns and their effects on land required for food," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 185-199, August.
    5. Reshmita Nath & Yibo Luan & Wangming Yang & Chen Yang & Wen Chen & Qian Li & Xuefeng Cui, 2015. "Changes in Arable Land Demand for Food in India and China: A Potential Threat to Food Security," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-27, April.
    6. Zhen, Lin & Cao, Shuyan & Cheng, Shengkui & Xie, Gaodi & Wei, Yunjie & Liu, Xuelin & Li, Fen, 2010. "Arable land requirements based on food consumption patterns: Case study in rural Guyuan District, Western China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(7), pages 1443-1453, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kamini Yadav & Hatim M. E. Geli, 2021. "Prediction of Crop Yield for New Mexico Based on Climate and Remote Sensing Data for the 1920–2019 Period," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-27, December.
    2. Shengqiang Yang & Donglin Li & Heping Liao & Lin Zhu & Miaomiao Zhou & Zhicong Cai, 2023. "Analysis of the Balance between Supply and Demand of Arable Land in China Based on Food Security," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-16, March.
    3. Xinyao Li & Lingzhi Wang & Bryan Pijanowski & Lingpeng Pan & Hichem Omrani & Anqi Liang & Yi Qu, 2022. "The Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Transition Mode of Recessive Cultivated Land Use Morphology in the Huaibei Region of the Jiangsu Province," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, November.
    4. Lintao Liu & Shouchao Yu & Hengjia Zhang & Yong Wang & Chao Liang, 2023. "Analysis of Land Use Change Drivers and Simulation of Different Future Scenarios: Taking Shanxi Province of China as an Example," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-19, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emiko Fukase & Will Martin, 2016. "Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 3-23, February.
    2. Hualin Xie & Yuyang Wen & Yongrok Choi & Xinmin Zhang, 2021. "Global Trends on Food Security Research: A Bibliometric Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, January.
    3. Martin, William J. & Fukase, Emiko, 2014. "Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income," 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014. San Diego, California 197164, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    4. Stella, Giordano & Coli, Roberto & Maurizi, Angela & Famiani, Franco & Castellini, Cesare & Pauselli, Mariano & Tosti, Giacomo & Menconi, MariaElena, 2019. "Towards a National Food Sovereignty Plan: Application of a new Decision Support System for food planning and governance," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Fukase, Emiko & Martin, Will, 2020. "Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Sali, Guido & Corsi, Stefano & Monaco, Federica & Mazzochi, Chiara, 2014. "The role of different typologies of urban agriculture for the nourishment of the metropolis. The case study of Milan," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 186373, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Lin Zhen & Bingzhen Du, 2017. "Ecological Footprint Analysis Based on Changing Food Consumption in a Poorly Developed Area of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-18, August.
    8. Honglei Jiang & Xia Xu & Mengxi Guan & Lingfei Wang & Yongmei Huang & Yinghui Liu, 2019. "Simulation of Spatiotemporal Land Use Changes for Integrated Model of Socioeconomic and Ecological Processes in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-18, July.
    9. GAO Tianming & Anna Ivolga & Vasilii Erokhin, 2018. "Sustainable Rural Development in Northern China: Caught in a Vice between Poverty, Urban Attractions, and Migration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-20, May.
    10. Manfred Fehr, 2006. "A Successful Pilot Project of Decentralized Household Waste Management in Brazil," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 21-29, March.
    11. Dhoubhadel, Sunil P. & Taheripour, Farzad & Stockton, Mathew C., 2016. "Livestock Demand, Global Land Use, and Induced Greenhouse Gas Emissions," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235271, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Qiu, Bingwen & Li, Haiwen & Tang, Zhenghong & Chen, Chongcheng & Berry, Joe, 2020. "How cropland losses shaped by unbalanced urbanization process?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    13. Kastner, Thomas & Kastner, Michael & Nonhebel, Sanderine, 2011. "Tracing distant environmental impacts of agricultural products from a consumer perspective," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(6), pages 1032-1040, April.
    14. Chengqiang Li & Junxiao Wang & Liang Ge & Yujie Zhou & Shenglu Zhou, 2022. "Optimization of Sample Construction Based on NDVI for Cultivated Land Quality Prediction," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-17, June.
    15. Yang Sheng & Weizhong Liu & Hailiang Xu & Xianchao Gao, 2021. "The Spatial Distribution Characteristics of the Cultivated Land Quality in the Diluvial Fan Terrain of the Arid Region: A Case Study of Jimsar County, Xinjiang, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-29, August.
    16. Cheng, Mingyang & Yansui Liu, & Zhou, Yang, 2019. "Measuring the symbiotic development of rural housing and industry: A case study of Fuping County in the Taihang Mountains in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 307-316.
    17. Zhang, Bangbang & Li, Xian & Chen, Haibin & Niu, Wenhao & Kong, Xiangbin & Yu, Qiang & Zhao, Minjuan & Xia, Xianli, 2022. "Identifying opportunities to close yield gaps in China by use of certificated cultivars to estimate potential productivity," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    18. Escudero, Marcos & Jiménez, Ángel & González, Celina & López, Ignacio, 2013. "Quantitative analysis of potential power production and environmental benefits of Biomass Integrated Gasification Combined Cycles in the European Union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 63-75.
    19. Kastner, Thomas, 2009. "Trajectories in human domination of ecosystems: Human appropriation of net primary production in the Philippines during the 20th century," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 260-269, December.
    20. Xing Liu & Zhaoyang Cai & Yan Xu & Huihui Zheng & Kaige Wang & Fengrong Zhang, 2022. "Suitability Evaluation of Cultivated Land Reserved Resources in Arid Areas Based on Regional Water Balance," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1463-1479, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:17:p:4769-:d:262977. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.