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Machine Learning Applied to Banking Supervision a Literature Review

Author

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  • Pedro Guerra

    (Prudencial Supervision Department, Banco de Portugal, Rua Castilho 24, 1269-179 Lisbon, Portugal
    This disclaimer informs readers that the views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the authors, and not necessarily to Banco de Portugal.)

  • Mauro Castelli

    (NOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS), Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Campus de Campolide, 1070-312 Lisbon, Portugal)

Abstract

Machine learning (ML) has revolutionised data analysis over the past decade. Like innumerous other industries heavily reliant on accurate information, banking supervision stands to benefit greatly from this technological advance. The objective of this review is to provide a comprehensive walk-through of how the most common ML techniques have been applied to risk assessment in banking, focusing on a supervisory perspective. We searched Google Scholar, Springer Link, and ScienceDirect databases for articles including the search terms “machine learning” and (“bank” or “banking” or “supervision”). No language, date, or Journal filter was applied. Papers were then screened and selected according to their relevance. The final article base consisted of 41 papers and 2 book chapters, 53% of which were published in the top quartile journals in their field. Results are presented in a timeline according to the publication date and categorised by time slots. Credit risk assessment and stress testing are highlighted topics as well as other risk perspectives, with some references to ML application surveys. The most relevant ML techniques encompass k-nearest neighbours (KNN), support vector machines (SVM), tree-based models, ensembles, boosting techniques, and artificial neural networks (ANN). Recent trends include developing early warning systems (EWS) for bankruptcy and refining stress testing. One limitation of this study is the paucity of contributions using supervisory data, which justifies the need for additional investigation in this field. However, there is increasing evidence that ML techniques can enhance data analysis and decision making in the banking industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Guerra & Mauro Castelli, 2021. "Machine Learning Applied to Banking Supervision a Literature Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-24, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:9:y:2021:i:7:p:136-:d:596740
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrés Alonso & José Manuel Carbó, 2021. "Understanding the performance of machine learning models to predict credit default: a novel approach for supervisory evaluation," Working Papers 2105, Banco de España.
    2. Chujie Tian & Jian Ma & Chunhong Zhang & Panpan Zhan, 2018. "A Deep Neural Network Model for Short-Term Load Forecast Based on Long Short-Term Memory Network and Convolutional Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Sebastian Doerr & Leonardo Gambacorta & José María Serena Garralda, 2021. "Big data and machine learning in central banking," BIS Working Papers 930, Bank for International Settlements.
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    5. Kolari, James W. & López-Iturriaga, Félix J. & Sanz, Ivan Pastor, 2019. "Predicting European bank stress tests: Survival of the fittest," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 44-57.
    6. Le, Hong Hanh & Viviani, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Predicting bank failure: An improvement by implementing a machine-learning approach to classical financial ratios," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 16-25.
    7. Angelini, Eliana & di Tollo, Giacomo & Roli, Andrea, 2008. "A neural network approach for credit risk evaluation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 733-755, November.
    8. Atanu Sengupta & Sanjoy De, 2020. "Review of Literature," India Studies in Business and Economics, in: Assessing Performance of Banks in India Fifty Years After Nationalization, chapter 0, pages 15-30, Springer.
    9. Kupiec, Paul H., 2018. "On the accuracy of alternative approaches for calibrating bank stress test models," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 132-146.
    10. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    11. Tongyu Wang & Shangmei Zhao & Guangxiang Zhu & Haitao Zheng, 2021. "A machine learning-based early warning system for systemic banking crises," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(26), pages 2974-2992, June.
    12. Lee, In & Shin, Yong Jae, 2020. "Machine learning for enterprises: Applications, algorithm selection, and challenges," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 157-170.
    13. Pompella, Maurizio & Dicanio, Antonio, 2017. "Ratings based Inference and Credit Risk: Detecting likely-to-fail Banks with the PC-Mahalanobis Method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 34-44.
    14. Andrés Alonso & José Manuel Carbó, 2020. "Machine learning in credit risk: measuring the dilemma between prediction and supervisory cost," Working Papers 2032, Banco de España.
    15. Martin Leo & Suneel Sharma & K. Maddulety, 2019. "Machine Learning in Banking Risk Management: A Literature Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Guerra & Mauro Castelli & Nadine Côrte-Real, 2022. "Approaching European Supervisory Risk Assessment with SupTech: A Proposal of an Early Warning System," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Guerra, Pedro & Castelli, Mauro & Côrte-Real, Nadine, 2022. "Machine learning for liquidity risk modelling: A supervisory perspective," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 175-187.
    3. Pejman Peykani & Mostafa Sargolzaei & Mohammad Hashem Botshekan & Camelia Oprean-Stan & Amir Takaloo, 2023. "Optimization of Asset and Liability Management of Banks with Minimum Possible Changes," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-24, June.

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