The Determinants and Spatial Interaction of Regional Carbon Transfer: The Perspective of Dependence

Carbon transfer embodies the spatial redistribution of carbon emissions resulting from interregional economic activities and trade. In recent years, accelerated regional integration and deepening specialization within industrial chains have rendered traditional bilateral analytical frameworks inadequate for capturing the complexity of interregional carbon transfer networks. This evolving context necessitates the incorporation of spatial interaction effects to elucidate the multi-nodal and multi-pathway characteristics inherent in contemporary carbon transfer patterns. Based on the spatial interaction theoretical framework and a multiregional input–output (MRIO) model, we analyze the spatial dependence characteristics of interregional carbon transfer in China. The results reveal that interregional carbon transfer in China exhibited an upward trend from 2012 to 2017, demonstrating statistically significant positive origin dependence, destination dependence, and network dependence. The distance between regions exerts a significantly negative influence on interregional carbon transfer. Interregional carbon transfer is not merely a bilateral phenomenon; its fundamental nature is characterized as a network phenomenon. Our study demonstrates that precise regulation of the allocation of industrial land and transportation infrastructure land, strengthening the decisive role of market mechanisms in resource allocation for regional low-carbon development, and establishing interregional collaboration mechanisms for low-carbon exchange can effectively reduce the occurrence of interregional carbon transfer. These findings provide policymakers with more precise information to achieve equitable carbon emissions distribution across regions.