IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v14y2025i5p1074-d1656594.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Policy-Driven Scenarios for Sustainable Peri-Urban Land Use: Production–Living–Ecological Space in Yubei District, Chongqing

Author

Listed:
  • Yilong Li

    (School of Geographical Sciences, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo 315100, China
    School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK)

  • Yu-Ting Tang

    (School of Geographical Sciences, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo 315100, China)

  • Christopher D. Ives

    (School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK)

Abstract

Sustainable land-use planning in peri-urban areas relies on informed decision-making guided by the examination of various development strategies. This study demonstrates a policy-based multi-scenario simulation which can serve as an aid to decision-making. Using the transformation of production–living–ecological (PLE) spaces in the Yubei District, a peri-urban district in Chongqing (2005 to 2020), as the baseline, the projections, simulated for 2035 under four scenarios, highlight the impacts of varying land-use policies: the reference scenario (RS), allowing unrestricted transformations, risks agricultural productivity and ecological integrity; the economic development scenario (S1) reveals the ecological costs associated with an economics-driven urban expansion; in contrast, the green development (S2) and agricultural land protection (S3) scenarios prioritize balanced growth and agricultural-land preservation so that ecological resilience and food security can be effectively maintained. Overall, significant land-use changes may occur, characterized by a substantial increase in living space, a decrease in production space, and stable ecological areas. This scenario-based analysis provides a comprehensive overview as to potential policy-driven planning outcomes. This aids in the identification of policy options that would best harmonize ecological, economic, and social objectives, offering essential insights for sustainable urbanization and land management in developing areas such as the Yubei District.

Suggested Citation

  • Yilong Li & Yu-Ting Tang & Christopher D. Ives, 2025. "Policy-Driven Scenarios for Sustainable Peri-Urban Land Use: Production–Living–Ecological Space in Yubei District, Chongqing," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-30, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:5:p:1074-:d:1656594
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/5/1074/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/5/1074/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chuchu Zhang & Peng Wang & Pingsheng Xiong & Chunhong Li & Bin Quan, 2021. "Spatial Pattern Simulation of Land Use Based on FLUS Model under Ecological Protection: A Case Study of Hengyang City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Liu, Yansui & Zhou, Yang, 2021. "Territory spatial planning and national governance system in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Enrico Gottero & Federica Larcher & Claudia Cassatella, 2023. "Defining and Regulating Peri-Urban Areas through a Landscape Planning Approach: The Case Study of Turin Metropolitan Area (Italy)," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, January.
    4. Huanchun Huang & Keng Chen & Hao Zhang & Lijian Ren, 2023. "Planning and coordinated response mechanism of economic and ecological services in urban expansion," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 2400-2420, March.
    5. Furui Xi & Runping Wang & Jusong Shi & Jinde Zhang & Yang Yu & Na Wang & Zhiyi Wang, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Conflict Identification of Production–Living–Ecological Space in the Yellow River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-22, May.
    6. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    7. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    8. Yanan Zhang & Ri Jin & Weihong Zhu & Da Zhang & Xiaoxue Zhang, 2020. "Impacts of Land Use Changes on Wetland Ecosystem Services in the Tumen River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-15, November.
    9. Guangzhao Wu & Yilin Lin & Junsan Zhao & Qiaoxiong Chen, 2024. "Identification of Land Use Conflict Based on Multi-Scenario Simulation—Taking the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration as an Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-21, November.
    10. Sajida Perveen & Md. Kamruzzaman & Tan Yigitcanlar, 2017. "Developing Policy Scenarios for Sustainable Urban Growth Management: A Delphi Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-27, October.
    11. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    12. Shunqian Gao & Liu Yang & Hongzan Jiao, 2022. "Changes in and Patterns of the Tradeoffs and Synergies of Production-Living-Ecological Space: A Case Study of Longli County, Guizhou Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-18, July.
    13. Kai Zhu & Yufeng Cheng & Weiye Zang & Quan Zhou & Youssef El Archi & Hossein Mousazadeh & Moaaz Kabil & Katalin Csobán & Lóránt Dénes Dávid, 2023. "Multiscenario Simulation of Land-Use Change in Hubei Province, China Based on the Markov-FLUS Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-27, March.
    14. Hongji Chen & Qingyuan Yang & Kangchuan Su & Haozhe Zhang & Dan Lu & Hui Xiang & Lulu Zhou, 2021. "Identification and Optimization of Production-Living-Ecological Space in an Ecological Foundation Area in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River: A Case Study of Jiangjin District of Chongqing, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-19, August.
    15. Li Huang & Daniel Cronan & Andrew (Anaru) Kliskey, 2024. "Stakeholder-Driven Policies and Scenarios of Land System Change and Environmental Impacts: A Case Study of Owyhee County, Idaho, United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-26, January.
    16. Robert Pontius & Wideke Boersma & Jean-Christophe Castella & Keith Clarke & Ton Nijs & Charles Dietzel & Zengqiang Duan & Eric Fotsing & Noah Goldstein & Kasper Kok & Eric Koomen & Christopher Lippitt, 2008. "Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 11-37, March.
    17. Wright, David & Stahl, Bernd & Hatzakis, Tally, 2020. "Policy scenarios as an instrument for policymakers," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    18. Chun Fu & Xiaoqiang Tu & An Huang, 2021. "Identification and Characterization of Production–Living–Ecological Space in a Central Urban Area Based on POI Data: A Case Study for Wuhan, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-25, July.
    19. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    20. J. Jäger & M. Rounsevell & P. Harrison & I. Omann & R. Dunford & M. Kammerlander & G. Pataki, 2015. "Assessing policy robustness of climate change adaptation measures across sectors and scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 395-407, February.
    21. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    22. Xinwen Lin & Angathevar Baskaran & Yajie Zhang, 2023. "Watershed Horizontal Ecological Compensation Policy and Green Ecological City Development: Spatial and Mechanism Assessment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-21, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kılkış, Şiir, 2022. "Urban emissions and land use efficiency scenarios towards effective climate mitigation in urban systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    2. Holman, I.P. & Brown, C & Janes, V & Sandars, D, 2017. "Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 126-135.
    3. Wenbo, Xu & Hengzhou, Xu & Xiaoyan, Li & Hua, Qiu & Ziyao, Wang, 2024. "Ecosystem services response to future land use/cover change (LUCC) under multiple scenarios: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    4. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Solberg, Birger & Moiseyev, Alex & Hansen, Jon Øvrum & Horn, Svein Jarle & Øverland, Margareth, 2021. "Wood for food: Economic impacts of sustainable use of forest biomass for salmon feed production in Norway," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    6. Lanzi, Elisa & Dellink, Rob & Chateau, Jean, 2018. "The sectoral and regional economic consequences of outdoor air pollution to 2060," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 89-113.
    7. Speers, Ann E. & Besedin, Elena Y. & Palardy, James E. & Moore, Chris, 2016. "Impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on coral reef fisheries: An integrated ecological–economic model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 33-43.
    8. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    9. McManamay, Ryan A. & DeRolph, Christopher R. & Surendran-Nair, Sujithkumar & Allen-Dumas, Melissa, 2019. "Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 880-900.
    10. Richard Taylor & Ruth Butterfield & Tiago Capela Lourenço & Adis Dzebo & Henrik Carlsen & Richard J. T. Klein, 2020. "Surveying perceptions and practices of high-end climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 65-87, July.
    11. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Phetheet, Jirapat & Hill, Mary C. & Barron, Robert W. & Gray, Benjamin J. & Wu, Hongyu & Amanor-Boadu, Vincent & Heger, Wade & Kisekka, Isaya & Golden, Bill & Rossi, Matthew W., 2021. "Relating agriculture, energy, and water decisions to farm incomes and climate projections using two freeware programs, FEWCalc and DSSAT," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    13. Milan Ščasný & Emanuele Massetti & Jan Melichar & Samuel Carrara, 2015. "Quantifying the Ancillary Benefits of the Representative Concentration Pathways on Air Quality in Europe," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 383-415, October.
    14. Coppens, Léo & Venmans, Frank, 2025. "The welfare properties of climate targets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    15. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    16. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
    17. Victor Nechifor & Matthew Winning, 2017. "The impacts of higher CO2 concentrations over global crop production and irrigation water requirements," EcoMod2017 10487, EcoMod.
    18. Dugan, Anna & Mayer, Jakob & Thaller, Annina & Bachner, Gabriel & Steininger, Karl W., 2022. "Developing policy packages for low-carbon passenger transport: A mixed methods analysis of trade-offs and synergies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    19. Fabien Cremona & Sirje Vilbaste & Raoul-Marie Couture & Peeter Nõges & Tiina Nõges, 2017. "Is the future of large shallow lakes blue-green? Comparing the response of a catchment-lake model chain to climate predictions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 347-361, March.
    20. Govorukha, Kristina & Mayer, Philip & Rübbelke, Dirk & Vögele, Stefan, 2020. "Economic disruptions in long-term energy scenarios – Implications for designing energy policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:5:p:1074-:d:1656594. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.