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Forecasting the Direction of Daily Changes in the India VIX Index Using Machine Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Akhilesh Prasad

    (IFMR Graduate School of Business, Krea University, Sri City 517646, Andhra Pradesh, India)

  • Priti Bakhshi

    (S. P. Jain School of Global Management, Mumbai 400070, Maharashtra, India)

Abstract

Movements in the India VIX are an important gauge of how the market’s risk perception shifts from day to day. This research attempts to forecast movements one day ahead of the India VIX using logistic regression and 11 ensemble learning classifiers. The period of study is from April 2009 to March 2021. To achieve the stated task, classifiers were trained and validated with 90% of the given sample, considering two-fold time-series cross-validation for hyper-tuning. Optimised models were then predicted on an unseen test dataset, representing 10% of the given sample. The results showed that optimal models performed well, and their accuracy scores were similar, with minor variations ranging from 63.33% to 67.67%. The stacking classifier achieved the highest accuracy. Furthermore, CatBoost, Light Gradient Boosted Machine (LightGBM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), voting, stacking, bagging and Random Forest classifiers are the best models with statistically similar performances. Among them, CatBoost, LightGBM, XGBoost and Random Forest classifiers can be recommended for forecasting day-to-day movements of the India VIX because of their inherently optimised structure. This finding is very useful for anticipating risk in the Indian stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Akhilesh Prasad & Priti Bakhshi, 2022. "Forecasting the Direction of Daily Changes in the India VIX Index Using Machine Learning," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-26, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:12:p:552-:d:983390
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Friedman, Jerome H., 2002. "Stochastic gradient boosting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 367-378, February.
    2. Yun, Jaeho, 2020. "A re-examination of the predictability of stock returns and cash flows via the decomposition of VIX," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    3. Fernandes, Marcelo & Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Scharth, Marcel, 2014. "Modeling and predicting the CBOE market volatility index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-10.
    4. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhou, Huiting & Wen, Fenghua & He, Shaoyi, 2020. "Efficient predictability of stock return volatility: The role of stock market implied volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Priya Singh & Akanksha Sharma & Manoj Jha & Chandan Kumar Verma, 2026. "Predicting Market Volatility: An Ensemble Approach for Enhanced India VIX Prediction," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Degiannakis, Stavros & Kafousaki, Eleftheria, 2025. "Disaggregating VIX," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1559-1588.

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