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Malnutrition and Climate in Niger: Findings from Climate Indices and Crop Yield Simulations

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Sultan

    (ESPACE-DEV, University Montpellier, IRD, University Guyane, University Reunion, University Antilles, University Avignon, Maison de la Télédétection, 500 Rue Jean-François Breton, 34093 Montpellier, France)

  • Aurélien Barriquault

    (Save The Children, London WC2H 7HH, UK)

  • Audrey Brouillet

    (ESPACE-DEV, University Montpellier, IRD, University Guyane, University Reunion, University Antilles, University Avignon, Maison de la Télédétection, 500 Rue Jean-François Breton, 34093 Montpellier, France)

  • Jérémy Lavarenne

    (CIRAD, UMR TETIS, University Montpellier, AgroParisTech, CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, 34398 Montpellier, France)

  • Montira Pongsiri

    (Save The Children, London WC2H 7HH, UK)

Abstract

Malnutrition, particularly its impact on child morbidity and mortality, is one of the top five health effects of climate change. However, quantifying the portion of malnutrition attributed to climate remains challenging due to various confounding factors. This study examines the relationship between climate and acute malnutrition in Niger, a country highly vulnerable to climate change and disasters. Since climate’s effect on malnutrition is indirect, mediated by crop production, we combine rainfall data from TAMSAT satellite estimates with the SARRA-O crop model, which simulates the impact of rainfall variability on crop yields. Our analysis reveals a significant correlation between malnutrition and both rainfall and crop production from the previous year, but not within the same year. The strongest correlation (R = −0.72) was found with the previous year’s crop production. No significant links were found with temperature or intra-seasonal rainfall indices, like the start or duration of the rainy season. Although national correlations between global malnutrition, rainfall, and crop yields were stronger, they were weaker or absent at the regional level and, for Severe Acute Malnutrition crises, are less likely driven by climate variability. However, the one-year lag in the correlation allows for the prediction of future food crises, providing an opportunity to implement early intervention measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Sultan & Aurélien Barriquault & Audrey Brouillet & Jérémy Lavarenne & Montira Pongsiri, 2025. "Malnutrition and Climate in Niger: Findings from Climate Indices and Crop Yield Simulations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 22(4), pages 1-22, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:22:y:2025:i:4:p:551-:d:1627012
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amadou Soumaila, 2021. "Assessment of Farmer-Led Irrigation Development in Niger," World Bank Publications - Reports 35797, The World Bank Group.
    2. Dimitri Defrance & Benjamin Sultan & Mathieu Castets & Adjoua Moise Famien & Christian Baron, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change in West Africa on Cereal Production Per Capita in 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    3. repec:imf:imfdep:2022/016 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:imf:imfdps:2022/016 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Phillips Edomwonyi Obasohan & Stephen J. Walters & Richard Jacques & Khaled Khatab, 2020. "Risk Factors Associated with Malnutrition among Children Under-Five Years in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-23, November.
    6. Xuebin Zhang & Lisa Alexander & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Philip Jones & Albert Klein Tank & Thomas C. Peterson & Blair Trewin & Francis W. Zwiers, 2011. "Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(6), pages 851-870, November.
    7. van der Merwe, Eduard & Clance, Matthew & Yitbarek, Eleni, 2022. "Climate change and child malnutrition: A Nigerian perspective," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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