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Assessing Climate Variability Effects on Dengue Incidence in San Juan, Puerto Rico

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Méndez-Lázaro

    (Environmental Health Department, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Puerto Rico, Medical Sciences Campus, P.O. Box 365067, San Juan 00936, Puerto Rico)

  • Frank E. Muller-Karger

    (Institute for Marine Remote Sensing, College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, 140 7th Ave. South, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA)

  • Daniel Otis

    (Institute for Marine Remote Sensing, College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, 140 7th Ave. South, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA)

  • Matthew J. McCarthy

    (Institute for Marine Remote Sensing, College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, 140 7th Ave. South, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA)

  • Marisol Peña-Orellana

    (Center for Public Health Preparedness, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Puerto Rico, Medical Sciences Campus, P.O. Box 365067, San Juan 00936, Puerto Rico)

Abstract

We test the hypothesis that climate and environmental conditions are becoming favorable for dengue transmission in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Sea Level Pressure (SLP), Mean Sea Level (MSL), Wind, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Air Surface Temperature (AST), Rainfall, and confirmed dengue cases were analyzed. We evaluated the dengue incidence and environmental data with Principal Component Analysis, Pearson correlation coefficient, Mann-Kendall trend test and logistic regressions. Results indicated that dry days are increasing and wet days are decreasing. MSL is increasing, posing higher risk of dengue as the perimeter of the San Juan Bay estuary expands and shorelines move inland. Warming is evident with both SST and AST. Maximum and minimum air surface temperature extremes have increased. Between 1992 and 2011, dengue transmission increased by a factor of 3.4 (95% CI: 1.9–6.1) for each 1 °C increase in SST. For the period 2007–2011 alone, dengue incidence reached a factor of 5.2 (95% CI: 1.9–13.9) for each 1 °C increase in SST. Teenagers are consistently the age group that suffers the most infections in San Juan. Results help understand possible impacts of different climate change scenarios in planning for social adaptation and public health interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Méndez-Lázaro & Frank E. Muller-Karger & Daniel Otis & Matthew J. McCarthy & Marisol Peña-Orellana, 2014. "Assessing Climate Variability Effects on Dengue Incidence in San Juan, Puerto Rico," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-20, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:11:y:2014:i:9:p:9409-9428:d:40115
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael A Johansson & Derek A T Cummings & Gregory E Glass, 2009. "Multiyear Climate Variability and Dengue—El Niño Southern Oscillation, Weather, and Dengue Incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: A Longitudinal Data Analysis," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(11), pages 1-9, November.
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