IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0178698.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan

Author

Listed:
  • Ting-Wu Chuang
  • Luis Fernando Chaves
  • Po-Jiang Chen

Abstract

Background: Southern Taiwan has been a hotspot for dengue fever transmission since 1998. During 2014 and 2015, Taiwan experienced unprecedented dengue outbreaks and the causes are poorly understood. This study aims to investigate the influence of regional and local climate conditions on the incidence of dengue fever in Taiwan, as well as to develop a climate-based model for future forecasting. Methodology/Principle findings: Historical time-series data on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998 to 2015 were investigated. Local climate variables were analyzed using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), and the model of best fit was used to predict dengue incidence between 2013 and 2015. The cross-wavelet coherence approach was used to evaluate the regional El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) effects on dengue incidence and local climate variables. The DLNM results highlighted the important non-linear and lag effects of minimum temperature and precipitation. Minimum temperature above 23°C or below 17°C can increase dengue incidence rate with lag effects of 10 to 15 weeks. Moderate to high precipitation can increase dengue incidence rates with a lag of 10 or 20 weeks. The model of best fit successfully predicted dengue transmission between 2013 and 2015. The prediction accuracy ranged from 0.7 to 0.9, depending on the number of weeks ahead of the prediction. ENSO and IOD were associated with nonstationary inter-annual patterns of dengue transmission. IOD had a greater impact on the seasonality of local climate conditions. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings suggest that dengue transmission can be affected by regional and local climatic fluctuations in southern Taiwan. The climate-based model developed in this study can provide important information for dengue early warning systems in Taiwan. Local climate conditions might be influenced by ENSO and IOD, to result in unusual dengue outbreaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ting-Wu Chuang & Luis Fernando Chaves & Po-Jiang Chen, 2017. "Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(6), pages 1-20, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0178698
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0178698
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0178698
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0178698&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0178698?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Samir Bhatt & Peter W. Gething & Oliver J. Brady & Jane P. Messina & Andrew W. Farlow & Catherine L. Moyes & John M. Drake & John S. Brownstein & Anne G. Hoen & Osman Sankoh & Monica F. Myers & Dylan , 2013. "The global distribution and burden of dengue," Nature, Nature, vol. 496(7446), pages 504-507, April.
    2. Michael A Johansson & Derek A T Cummings & Gregory E Glass, 2009. "Multiyear Climate Variability and Dengue—El Niño Southern Oscillation, Weather, and Dengue Incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: A Longitudinal Data Analysis," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(11), pages 1-9, November.
    3. Yien Ling Hii & Huaiping Zhu & Nawi Ng & Lee Ching Ng & Joacim Rocklöv, 2012. "Forecast of Dengue Incidence Using Temperature and Rainfall," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(11), pages 1-9, November.
    4. Elodie Descloux & Morgan Mangeas & Christophe Eugène Menkes & Matthieu Lengaigne & Anne Leroy & Temaui Tehei & Laurent Guillaumot & Magali Teurlai & Ann-Claire Gourinat & Justus Benzler & Anne Pfannst, 2012. "Climate-Based Models for Understanding and Forecasting Dengue Epidemics," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(2), pages 1-19, February.
    5. Luis Fernando Chaves & Mercedes Pascual, 2007. "Comparing Models for Early Warning Systems of Neglected Tropical Diseases," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 1(1), pages 1-6, October.
    6. Hai-Yan Xu & Xiuju Fu & Lionel Kim Hock Lee & Stefan Ma & Kee Tai Goh & Jiancheng Wong & Mohamed Salahuddin Habibullah & Gary Kee Khoon Lee & Tian Kuay Lim & Paul Anantharajah Tambyah & Chin Leong Lim, 2014. "Statistical Modeling Reveals the Effect of Absolute Humidity on Dengue in Singapore," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(5), pages 1-11, May.
    7. N. H. Saji & B. N. Goswami & P. N. Vinayachandran & T. Yamagata, 1999. "A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 401(6751), pages 360-363, September.
    8. M. C. Thomson & F. J. Doblas-Reyes & S. J. Mason & R. Hagedorn & S. J. Connor & T. Phindela & A. P. Morse & T. N. Palmer, 2006. "Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles," Nature, Nature, vol. 439(7076), pages 576-579, February.
    9. Bernard Cazelles & Mario Chavez & Anthony J McMichael & Simon Hales, 2005. "Nonstationary Influence of El Niño on the Synchronous Dengue Epidemics in Thailand," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(4), pages 1-1, April.
    10. Luis Fernando Chaves & Mercedes Pascual, 2006. "Climate Cycles and Forecasts of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, a Nonstationary Vector-Borne Disease," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(8), pages 1-9, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ting-Wu Chuang & Ka-Chon Ng & Thi Luong Nguyen & Luis Fernando Chaves, 2018. "Epidemiological Characteristics and Space-Time Analysis of the 2015 Dengue Outbreak in the Metropolitan Region of Tainan City, Taiwan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-12, February.
    2. Luong Thi Nguyen & Huy Xuan Le & Dong Thanh Nguyen & Ha Quang Ho & Ting-Wu Chuang, 2020. "Impact of Climate Variability and Abundance of Mosquitoes on Dengue Transmission in Central Vietnam," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-16, April.
    3. Mazni Baharom & Norfazilah Ahmad & Rozita Hod & Fadly Syah Arsad & Fredolin Tangang, 2021. "The Impact of Meteorological Factors on Communicable Disease Incidence and Its Projection: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-22, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu-Chieh Cheng & Fang-Jing Lee & Ya-Ting Hsu & Eric V Slud & Chao A Hsiung & Chun-Hong Chen & Ching-Len Liao & Tzai-Hung Wen & Chiu-Wen Chang & Jui-Hun Chang & Hsiao-Yu Wu & Te-Pin Chang & Pei-Sheng L, 2020. "Real-time dengue forecast for outbreak alerts in Southern Taiwan," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Kraisak Kesorn & Phatsavee Ongruk & Jakkrawarn Chompoosri & Atchara Phumee & Usavadee Thavara & Apiwat Tawatsin & Padet Siriyasatien, 2015. "Morbidity Rate Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Using the Support Vector Machine and the Aedes aegypti Infection Rate in Similar Climates and Geographical Areas," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Margherita Grasso & Matteo Manera & Aline Chiabai & Anil Markandya, 2012. "The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-25, April.
    4. Maneerat, Somsakun & Daudé, Eric, 2016. "A spatial agent-based simulation model of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti to explore its population dynamics in urban areas," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 333(C), pages 66-78.
    5. Pablo Méndez-Lázaro & Frank E. Muller-Karger & Daniel Otis & Matthew J. McCarthy & Marisol Peña-Orellana, 2014. "Assessing Climate Variability Effects on Dengue Incidence in San Juan, Puerto Rico," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-20, September.
    6. Bernard Bett & Delia Grace & Hu Suk Lee & Johanna Lindahl & Hung Nguyen-Viet & Pham-Duc Phuc & Nguyen Huu Quyen & Tran Anh Tu & Tran Dac Phu & Dang Quang Tan & Vu Sinh Nam, 2019. "Spatiotemporal analysis of historical records (2001–2012) on dengue fever in Vietnam and development of a statistical model for forecasting risk," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(11), pages 1-22, November.
    7. Jue Tao Lim & Borame Sue Dickens & Sun Haoyang & Ng Lee Ching & Alex R Cook, 2020. "Inference on dengue epidemics with Bayesian regime switching models," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-15, May.
    8. Haogao Gu & Ross Ka-Kit Leung & Qinlong Jing & Wangjian Zhang & Zhicong Yang & Jiahai Lu & Yuantao Hao & Dingmei Zhang, 2016. "Meteorological Factors for Dengue Fever Control and Prevention in South China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-12, August.
    9. Xavier Rodó & Mercedes Pascual & Francisco Doblas-Reyes & Alexander Gershunov & Dáithí Stone & Filippo Giorgi & Peter Hudson & James Kinter & Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias & Nils Stenseth & David Alons, 2013. "Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 625-640, June.
    10. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    11. Luong Thi Nguyen & Huy Xuan Le & Dong Thanh Nguyen & Ha Quang Ho & Ting-Wu Chuang, 2020. "Impact of Climate Variability and Abundance of Mosquitoes on Dengue Transmission in Central Vietnam," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-16, April.
    12. Taynãna C Simões & Cláudia T Codeço & Aline A Nobre & Álvaro E Eiras, 2013. "Modeling the Non-Stationary Climate Dependent Temporal Dynamics of Aedes aegypti," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(8), pages 1-10, August.
    13. Shaowei Sang & Shaohua Gu & Peng Bi & Weizhong Yang & Zhicong Yang & Lei Xu & Jun Yang & Xiaobo Liu & Tong Jiang & Haixia Wu & Cordia Chu & Qiyong Liu, 2015. "Predicting Unprecedented Dengue Outbreak Using Imported Cases and Climatic Factors in Guangzhou, 2014," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(5), pages 1-12, May.
    14. Jue Tao Lim & Yiting Han & Borame Sue Lee Dickens & Lee Ching Ng & Alex R Cook, 2020. "Time varying methods to infer extremes in dengue transmission dynamics," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-19, October.
    15. R. S. Sparks & T. Keighley & D. Muscatello, 2011. "Optimal exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) plans for detecting seasonal epidemics when faced with non-homogeneous negative binomial counts," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 2165-2181.
    16. Chathurika Hettiarachchige & Stefan von Cavallar & Timothy Lynar & Roslyn I Hickson & Manoj Gambhir, 2018. "Risk prediction system for dengue transmission based on high resolution weather data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, December.
    17. Yebin Chen & Zhigang Zhao & Zhichao Li & Weihong Li & Zhipeng Li & Renzhong Guo & Zhilu Yuan, 2019. "Spatiotemporal Transmission Patterns and Determinants of Dengue Fever: A Case Study of Guangzhou, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-14, July.
    18. Felipe J. Colón-González & Rory Gibb & Kamran Khan & Alexander Watts & Rachel Lowe & Oliver J. Brady, 2023. "Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    19. Julián Alfredo Fernández-Niño & Claudia Iveth Astudillo-García & Ietza Bojorquez-Chapela & Evangelina Morales-Carmona & Airain Alejandra Montoya-Rodriguez & Lina Sofia Palacio-Mejia, 2016. "The Mexican Cycle of Suicide: A National Analysis of Seasonality, 2000-2013," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, January.
    20. Prasad Liyanage & Hasitha Tissera & Maquins Sewe & Mikkel Quam & Ananda Amarasinghe & Paba Palihawadana & Annelies Wilder-Smith & Valérie R. Louis & Yesim Tozan & Joacim Rocklöv, 2016. "A Spatial Hierarchical Analysis of the Temporal Influences of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Weather on Dengue in Kalutara District, Sri Lanka," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-21, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0178698. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.