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Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles

Author

Listed:
  • M. C. Thomson

    (The Earth Institute at Columbia University)

  • F. J. Doblas-Reyes

    (Shinfield Park)

  • S. J. Mason

    (The Earth Institute at Columbia University)

  • R. Hagedorn

    (Shinfield Park)

  • S. J. Connor

    (The Earth Institute at Columbia University)

  • T. Phindela

    (Ministry of Health)

  • A. P. Morse

    (University of Liverpool)

  • T. N. Palmer

    (Shinfield Park)

Abstract

The malaria outlook Botswana has compiled a continuous record of the incidence of malaria for the period 1982–2002, providing a unique data set for work on malaria epidemiology in a desert-fringe area. Climate fluctuations are known to be a major determinant of malaria transmission in parts of Africa where the disease is endemic. Based on established quantitative relationships between climate fluctuations and malaria incidence, a new system for predicting interannual climate fluctuations in epidemic-prone regions has now been developed. The DEMETER project, combining the leading European global climate prediction models, can successfully predict the probability of a malaria outbreak in Botswana up to five months ahead, providing an extra four months warning compared with current monitoring methods, during which time vital decisions about resource allocation can be made.

Suggested Citation

  • M. C. Thomson & F. J. Doblas-Reyes & S. J. Mason & R. Hagedorn & S. J. Connor & T. Phindela & A. P. Morse & T. N. Palmer, 2006. "Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles," Nature, Nature, vol. 439(7076), pages 576-579, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:439:y:2006:i:7076:d:10.1038_nature04503
    DOI: 10.1038/nature04503
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    1. LonÄ arić, Željka & K. Hackenberger, Branimir, 2013. "Stage and age structured Aedes vexans and Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae) climate-dependent matrix population model," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 82-94.
    2. Jaewon Kwak & Huiseong Noh & Soojun Kim & Vijay P. Singh & Seung Jin Hong & Duckgil Kim & Keonhaeng Lee & Narae Kang & Hung Soo Kim, 2014. "Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    3. Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), 2007. "Climate Change and Human Development in Africa: Assessing the Risks and Vulnerability of Climate Change in Kenya, Malawi and Ethiopia," Human Development Occasional Papers (1992-2007) HDOCPA-2007-08, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    4. Paulina Phoobane & Muthoni Masinde & Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, 2022. "Predicting Infectious Diseases: A Bibliometric Review on Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-20, February.
    5. Lindsey Jones & Clara Champalle & Sabrina Chesterman & Laura Cramer & Todd A. Crane, 2017. "Constraining and enabling factors to using long-term climate information in decision-making," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 551-572, July.
    6. J.M. Milani, 2013. "Ecological conditions affecting mycotoxin production in cereals: a review," Veterinární medicína, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 58(8), pages 405-411.
    7. Elorm Donkor & Matthew Kelly & Cecilia Eliason & Charles Amotoh & Darren J. Gray & Archie C. A. Clements & Kinley Wangdi, 2021. "A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Malaria in the Greater Accra Region of Ghana from 2015 to 2019," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-15, June.
    8. Walter Vergara & Alejandro Deeb & Irene Leino & Akio Kitoh & Marisa Escobar, 2011. "Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Hydrology : Development of a Methodology through a Case Study in the Andes of Peru," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2278, December.
    9. Cyril Caminade & Jacques A. Ndione & Mawlouth Diallo & Dave A. MacLeod & Ousmane Faye & Yamar Ba & Ibrahima Dia & Andrew P. Morse, 2014. "Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks in Mauritania and Related Environmental Conditions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, January.
    10. Musemwa, L. & Muchenje, V. & Mushunje, A. & Zhou, L., 2012. "The Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Production amongst the Resource-Poor Farmers of Third World Countries: A Review," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society (AESS), vol. 2(04), pages 1-12, December.
    11. Mohd Danish Khan & Hong Ha Thi Vu & Quang Tuan Lai & Ji Whan Ahn, 2019. "Aggravation of Human Diseases and Climate Change Nexus," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-26, August.
    12. R. S. Sparks & T. Keighley & D. Muscatello, 2011. "Optimal exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) plans for detecting seasonal epidemics when faced with non-homogeneous negative binomial counts," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 2165-2181.
    13. Tom Lindström & Michael Tildesley & Colleen Webb, 2015. "A Bayesian Ensemble Approach for Epidemiological Projections," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-30, April.
    14. Ting-Wu Chuang & Luis Fernando Chaves & Po-Jiang Chen, 2017. "Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(6), pages 1-20, June.
    15. Früh, Linus & Kampen, Helge & Kerkow, Antje & Schaub, Günter A. & Walther, Doreen & Wieland, Ralf, 2018. "Modelling the potential distribution of an invasive mosquito species: comparative evaluation of four machine learning methods and their combinations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 388(C), pages 136-144.
    16. Marcia Castro, 2007. "Spatial Demography: An Opportunity to Improve Policy Making at Diverse Decision Levels," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(5), pages 477-509, December.
    17. Sietz, Diana & Boschutz, Maria & Klein, Richard JT & Lotsch, Alexander, 2008. "Mainstreaming climate adaptation into development assistance in Mozambique: Institutional barriers and opportunities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4711, The World Bank.
    18. Bicout, Dominique J. & Vautrin, Mathias & Vignolles, Cecile & Sabatier, Philippe, 2015. "Modeling the dynamics of mosquito breeding sites vs rainfall in Barkedji area, Senegal," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 317(C), pages 41-49.
    19. Turvey, Calum G. & Chantarat, Sommarat, 2006. "Weather-Linked Bonds," 2006 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 2-3, 2006, Washington, DC 133091, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    20. Xavier Rodó & Mercedes Pascual & Francisco Doblas-Reyes & Alexander Gershunov & Dáithí Stone & Filippo Giorgi & Peter Hudson & James Kinter & Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias & Nils Stenseth & David Alons, 2013. "Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 625-640, June.

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