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Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

Author

Listed:
  • Xavier Rodó
  • Mercedes Pascual
  • Francisco Doblas-Reyes
  • Alexander Gershunov
  • Dáithí Stone
  • Filippo Giorgi
  • Peter Hudson
  • James Kinter
  • Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias
  • Nils Stenseth
  • David Alonso
  • Javier García-Serrano
  • Andrew Dobson

Abstract

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Rodó & Mercedes Pascual & Francisco Doblas-Reyes & Alexander Gershunov & Dáithí Stone & Filippo Giorgi & Peter Hudson & James Kinter & Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias & Nils Stenseth & David Alons, 2013. "Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 625-640, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:118:y:2013:i:3:p:625-640
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0744-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yan Ma & Guillaume Vigouroux & Zahra Kalantari & Romain Goldenberg & Georgia Destouni, 2020. "Implications of Projected Hydroclimatic Change for Tularemia Outbreaks in High-Risk Areas across Sweden," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-13, September.
    2. Yan Ma & Arvid Bring & Zahra Kalantari & Georgia Destouni, 2019. "Potential for Hydroclimatically Driven Shifts in Infectious Disease Outbreaks: The Case of Tularemia in High-Latitude Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-11, October.
    3. Seungwon Jung & Jaeuk Moon & Eenjun Hwang, 2020. "Cluster-Based Analysis of Infectious Disease Occurrences Using Tensor Decomposition: A Case Study of South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-19, July.
    4. Dáithí Stone & Maximilian Auffhammer & Mark Carey & Gerrit Hansen & Christian Huggel & Wolfgang Cramer & David Lobell & Ulf Molau & Andrew Solow & Lourdes Tibig & Gary Yohe, 2013. "The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 381-395, November.
    5. Philippe Bance & Jérôme Schoenmaeckers, 2021. "The increasing role and the diversity forms of Commons for production and preservation of essential goods and services," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(1), pages 5-12, March.

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