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Rising dengue risk with increasing El Niño–Southern Oscillation amplitude and teleconnections

Author

Listed:
  • Yunyu Tian

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Yiting Xu

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Yilin Liang

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Ziqin Zhou

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Katie M. Susong

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Yuyang Chen

    (China Three Gorges Corporation)

  • Kishen Joshi

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Amy M. Campbell

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Ahyoung Lim

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Qiushi Lin

    (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health)

  • Zixuan Ma

    (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

  • Yuanlong Wei

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Yun Yang

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Cheng Sun

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Juan Feng

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Qixin He

    (Purdue University)

  • Zengmiao Wang

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Bernard Cazelles

    (École Normale Supérieure
    Unité Mixte Internationnale 209, Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems, Sorbonne Université)

  • Yuanfang Guo

    (School of Computer Science and Engineering, Beihang University)

  • Kai Liu

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Oliver J. Brady

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Huaiyu Tian

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

Abstract

Global climate variability has been linked with some of the largest dengue outbreaks, including the record-breaking 2023–2024 epidemic, but the understanding of their mechanism and evidence for their association is lacking. By incorporating reported dengue cases and climate data from 57 countries across the Americas and Asia from 1980 to 2024, we unpacked the global climate teleconnection and quantifying its impact on dengue cases. We revealed that the heterogeneity in the association between global climate variability and dengue cases across regions is affected by the strength and types of global climate teleconnections with temperature and precipitation. By controlling for the heterogeneity, 63% of the variation in dengue cases can be attributed to El Niño–Southern Oscillation fluctuations, with higher values in endemic regions. The 1982–83, 1997–98, 2015–16, and 2023–24 El Niño events were estimated to have induced an additional 0.2, 1.4, 4.1, and 9.6 million dengue cases, respectively, over regular seasonal patterns. Due to human-induced warming, El Niño events and teleconnections may cause a 39.0–81.7% increase in cumulative cases in 2020–2099. Our findings quantify the association between global climate variability and dengue epidemics and caution about the potential future risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunyu Tian & Yiting Xu & Yilin Liang & Ziqin Zhou & Katie M. Susong & Yuyang Chen & Kishen Joshi & Amy M. Campbell & Ahyoung Lim & Qiushi Lin & Zixuan Ma & Yuanlong Wei & Yun Yang & Cheng Sun & Juan F, 2025. "Rising dengue risk with increasing El Niño–Southern Oscillation amplitude and teleconnections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-63655-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-63655-0
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