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The effect of weather and climate on dengue outbreak risk in Peru, 2000-2018: A time-series analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Tia Dostal
  • Julianne Meisner
  • César Munayco
  • Patricia J García
  • César Cárcamo
  • Jose Enrique Pérez Lu
  • Cory Morin
  • Lauren Frisbie
  • Peter M Rabinowitz

Abstract

Background: Dengue fever is the most common arboviral disease in humans, with an estimated 50-100 million annual infections worldwide. Dengue fever cases have increased substantially in the past four decades, driven largely by anthropogenic factors including climate change. More than half the population of Peru is at risk of dengue infection and due to its geography, Peru is also particularly sensitive to the effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Determining the effect of ENSO on the risk for dengue outbreaks is of particular public health relevance and may also be applicable to other Aedes-vectored viruses. Methods: We conducted a time-series analysis at the level of the district-month, using surveillance data collected from January 2000 to September 2018 from all districts with a mean elevation suitable to survival of the mosquito vector (

Suggested Citation

  • Tia Dostal & Julianne Meisner & César Munayco & Patricia J García & César Cárcamo & Jose Enrique Pérez Lu & Cory Morin & Lauren Frisbie & Peter M Rabinowitz, 2022. "The effect of weather and climate on dengue outbreak risk in Peru, 2000-2018: A time-series analysis," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-18, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pntd00:0010479
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010479
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