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Modeling and Predicting Dengue Incidence in Highly Vulnerable Countries using Panel Data Approach

Author

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  • Asim Anwar

    (Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Punjab 43600, Pakistan)

  • Noman Khan

    (Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Punjab 43600, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Ayub

    (Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Punjab 43600, Pakistan)

  • Faisal Nawaz

    (Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Punjab 43600, Pakistan
    Faculty of Finance and Banking, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City 758307, Vietnam)

  • Asim Shah

    (Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Punjab 43600, Pakistan)

  • Antoine Flahault

    (Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), Hirschengraben 82, 8001 Zürich, Switzerland
    Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, CH-1202, 8001 Geneva, Switzerland)

Abstract

The spread of dengue has become a major public health concern in recent times due to alarming climate change. Using country level panel data over the 2000–2017 period, this paper examines the effects of climate change and socio-economic variables on the incidence of dengue-borne diseases in some of the most highly vulnerable countries. Empirical analysis shows a positive association between climate change and socio-economic conditions in the advent of dengue-borne diseases. We find that climate change, as measured by temperature, is proactively contributing to the spread of dengue-borne diseases. However, redressing the contributive factor behind climate change, via better awareness through education and improved public health facilitation, can assist in managing the occurrences and spread of dengue-borne diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Asim Anwar & Noman Khan & Muhammad Ayub & Faisal Nawaz & Asim Shah & Antoine Flahault, 2019. "Modeling and Predicting Dengue Incidence in Highly Vulnerable Countries using Panel Data Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-8, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:13:p:2296-:d:243762
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael A Johansson & Derek A T Cummings & Gregory E Glass, 2009. "Multiyear Climate Variability and Dengue—El Niño Southern Oscillation, Weather, and Dengue Incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: A Longitudinal Data Analysis," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(11), pages 1-9, November.
    2. Sokrin Khun & Lenore Manderson, 2007. "Community and School-Based Health Education for Dengue Control in Rural Cambodia: A Process Evaluation," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 1(3), pages 1-10, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Asim Anwar & Muhammad Ayub & Noman Khan & Antoine Flahault, 2019. "Nexus between Air Pollution and Neonatal Deaths: A Case of Asian Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-10, October.
    2. Asim Anwar & Inayat Ullah & Mustafa Younis & Antoine Flahault, 2021. "Impact of Air Pollution (PM 2.5 ) on Child Mortality: Evidence from Sixteen Asian Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-13, June.

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