IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v121y2025i4d10.1007_s11069-024-06954-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trend and teleconnection analysis of temperature extremes in New South Wales, Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Orpita U. Laz

    (Western Sydney University)

  • Ataur Rahman

    (Western Sydney University)

  • Taha B. M. J. Ouarda

    (Institut National de La Recherche Scientifique INRS-ETE)

Abstract

This study investigates possible trends and teleconnections in temperature extremes in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Daily maximum and minimum temperature data covering the period 1971–2021 at 26 stations located in NSW were used. Three indices, which focus on daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and average daily temperature in terms of Excessive Heat Factor (EHF) were investigated to identify the occurrence of heatwaves (HWs). The study considered HWs of different durations (1-, 5-, and 10-days) in relation to intensity, frequency, duration, and their first occurrence parameters. Finally, the influences of three global climate drivers, namely – the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were investigated with associated heatwave attributes for extended Austral summers. In this study, an increasing trend in both hot days and nights was observed for most of the selected stations within the study area. The increase was more pronounced for the last decade (2011–2021) of the investigated time period. The number, duration and frequency of the heatwaves increased over time considering the EHF criterion, whereas no particular trend was detected in cases of TX90 and TN90. It was also evident that the first occurrence of all the HWs shifted towards the onset of the extended summer while considering the EHF criterion of HWs. The correlations between heatwave attributes and climate drivers depicted that heatwave over NSW was positively influenced by both the IOD and ENSO and negatively correlated with SAM. The findings of this study will be useful in formulating strategies for managing the impacts of extreme temperature events such as bushfires, floods, droughts to the most at-risk regions within NSW.

Suggested Citation

  • Orpita U. Laz & Ataur Rahman & Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, 2025. "Trend and teleconnection analysis of temperature extremes in New South Wales, Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(4), pages 4559-4584, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06954-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06954-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06954-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-06954-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. H. Saji & B. N. Goswami & P. N. Vinayachandran & T. Yamagata, 1999. "A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 401(6751), pages 360-363, September.
    2. Ke, Xinda & Wu, Di & Rice, Jennie & Kintner-Meyer, Michael & Lu, Ning, 2016. "Quantifying impacts of heat waves on power grid operation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 504-512.
    3. John R. Nairn & Robert J. B. Fawcett, 2014. "The Excess Heat Factor: A Metric for Heatwave Intensity and Its Use in Classifying Heatwave Severity," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-27, December.
    4. Peter A. Stott & D. A. Stone & M. R. Allen, 2004. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7017), pages 610-614, December.
    5. Xiao Song & Zhao Zhang & Yi Chen & Pin Wang & Ming Xiang & Peijun Shi & Fulu Tao, 2014. "Spatiotemporal changes of global extreme temperature events (ETEs) since 1981 and the meteorological causes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(2), pages 975-994, January.
    6. Xuebin Zhang & Lisa Alexander & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Philip Jones & Albert Klein Tank & Thomas C. Peterson & Blair Trewin & Francis W. Zwiers, 2011. "Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(6), pages 851-870, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wenju Cai & Yi Liu & Xiaopei Lin & Ziguang Li & Ying Zhang & David Newth, 2024. "Nonlinear country-heterogenous impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on global economies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    3. Matthias Schmidt & Hermann Held & Elmar Kriegler & Alexander Lorenz, 2013. "Climate Policy Under Uncertain and Heterogeneous Climate Damages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(1), pages 79-99, January.
    4. Weiqing Han & Lei Zhang & Gerald A. Meehl & Shoichiro Kido & Tomoki Tozuka & Yuanlong Li & Michael J. McPhaden & Aixue Hu & Anny Cazenave & Nan Rosenbloom & Gary Strand & B. Jason West & Wen Xing, 2022. "Sea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Schallaböck, Karl Otto & Fischedick, Manfred & Brouns, Bernd & Luhmann, Hans-Jochen & Merten, Frank, 2006. "Klimawirksame Emissionen des PKW-Verkehrs und Bewertung von Minderungsstrategien," Wuppertal Spezial, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, volume 34, number 34.
    6. Pelli, Martino & Tschopp, Jeanne & Bezmaternykh, Natalia & Eklou, Kodjovi M., 2023. "In the eye of the storm: Firms and capital destruction in India," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Sakineh Khansalari & Atefeh Mohammadi, 2024. "Probabilistic projection of extreme precipitation changes over Iran by the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-26, July.
    8. Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2021. "Climate change, migration and voice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-27, July.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    10. Luke J. Harrington, 2017. "Investigating differences between event-as-class and probability density-based attribution statements with emerging climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 641-654, April.
    11. Marlos Goes & Nancy Tuana & Klaus Keller, 2011. "The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 719-744, December.
    12. Moazami, Amin & Nik, Vahid M. & Carlucci, Salvatore & Geving, Stig, 2019. "Impacts of future weather data typology on building energy performance – Investigating long-term patterns of climate change and extreme weather conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 696-720.
    13. Nisa Anil & M. R. Ramesh Kumar & R. Sajeev & P. K. Saji, 2016. "Role of distinct flavours of IOD events on Indian summer monsoon," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(2), pages 1317-1326, June.
    14. Neethu C & K V Ramesh, 2023. "Projected changes in heat wave characteristics over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-26, October.
    15. John Nairn & Bertram Ostendorf & Peng Bi, 2018. "Performance of Excess Heat Factor Severity as a Global Heatwave Health Impact Index," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-26, November.
    16. Greg Lusk, 2017. "The social utility of event attribution: liability, adaptation, and justice-based loss and damage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 201-212, July.
    17. Fengchun Ye & Pinya Wang & Yang Yang & Lili Ren & Jianping Tang & Hong Liao, 2025. "Anthropogenic forcing dominates changes in compound long-duration dry and heat extremes in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(2), pages 1-19, February.
    18. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & Douglas Hanley & William Kerr, 2016. "Transition to Clean Technology," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 52-104.
    19. -, 2018. "Climate Change in Central America: Potential Impacts and Public Policy Options," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México (Estudios e Investigaciones) 39150, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    20. Akio Kitoh, 2007. "Variability of Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship in a 1000-year MRI-CGCM2.2 simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 42(2), pages 261-272, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06954-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.