IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v176y2023i10d10.1007_s10584-023-03618-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projected changes in heat wave characteristics over India

Author

Listed:
  • Neethu C

    (CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute
    Visvesvaraya Technological University)

  • K V Ramesh

    (CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute)

Abstract

Heat waves (HW) are increasing in intensity, frequency, and duration. The projected changes in the characteristics of HW at the regional level are essential input to develop mitigation strategies to minimize social risks in densely populated regions. In this study, we examine the projected spatiotemporal changes in heat wave characteristics under different climate change scenarios using simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) in seven temperature homogeneous zones of India, i.e., North West (NW), North Central (NC), West Coast (WC), East Coast (EC), Interior Peninsula (IP), Western Himalaya (WH) and North East (NE). The results show that the area of occurrence of a daily maximum temperature above 43 $$^\circ $$ ∘ C is projected to increase about 16-fold over WC, 10-fold over EC, and in other zones in the range of 1-3 fold. The warm days are projected to increase fivefold over WC and threefold over NW, EC, IP, and WH. In India, HW days are projected to increase by 7-8 days in the near future (2025-2050) and by 10-17 days in the far future (2076-2100), while under SSP585 over WH (24 days), NW (19 days), and other zones 12-15 days in the far future. EC and WC are plausible to be more vulnerable under SSP370 and SSP585, with an increase in HW intensity (>1.5 $$^\circ $$ ∘ C). The area of occurrence of long-lasting heat waves over WC is expected to have a drastic increase of more than 20-fold under all scenarios, while increasing 12-fold over IP and 8-fold over NC, EC, and WH under SSP585. The projected HW days will be more intense in the coastal zones and more frequent over WH and NW.

Suggested Citation

  • Neethu C & K V Ramesh, 2023. "Projected changes in heat wave characteristics over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-26, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:10:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03618-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03618-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-023-03618-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-023-03618-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vittal Hari & Subimal Ghosh & Wei Zhang & Rohini Kumar, 2022. "Strong influence of north Pacific Ocean variability on Indian summer heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick & S. C. Lewis, 2020. "Increasing trends in regional heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Wenju Cai & Benjamin Ng & Guojian Wang & Agus Santoso & Lixin Wu & Kai Yang, 2022. "Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(3), pages 228-231, March.
    4. C. Neethu & K. V. Ramesh & K. B. Shafeer, 2020. "Understanding the spatio-temporal structure of recent heat waves over India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(2), pages 673-688, June.
    5. Peter A. Stott & D. A. Stone & M. R. Allen, 2004. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7017), pages 610-614, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yulong Yao & Wei Zhang & Ben Kirtman, 2023. "Increasing impacts of summer extreme precipitation and heatwaves in eastern China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-20, October.
    2. Matthias Schmidt & Hermann Held & Elmar Kriegler & Alexander Lorenz, 2013. "Climate Policy Under Uncertain and Heterogeneous Climate Damages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(1), pages 79-99, January.
    3. Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2021. "Climate change, migration and voice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-27, July.
    4. Luke J. Harrington, 2017. "Investigating differences between event-as-class and probability density-based attribution statements with emerging climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 641-654, April.
    5. Hosmay Lopez & Sang-Ki Lee & Dongmin Kim & Andrew T. Wittenberg & Sang-Wook Yeh, 2022. "Projections of faster onset and slower decay of El Niño in the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Arellano-Gonzalez, Jesus & Juarez-Torres, Miriam & Zazueta-Borboa, Francisco, 2021. "Temperature shocks and local price changes of agricultural products: panel data evidence from Mexico," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 314060, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. -, 2018. "Climate Change in Central America: Potential Impacts and Public Policy Options," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México (Estudios e Investigaciones) 39150, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    9. Yang, Wangming & Luan, Yibo & Liu, Xiaolei & Yu, Xiaoyong & Miao, Lijuan & Cui, Xuefeng, 2017. "A new global anthropogenic heat estimation based on high-resolution nighttime light data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 4, pages 1-11.
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & Douglas Hanley & William Kerr, 2016. "Transition to Clean Technology," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 52-104.
    11. Tao Geng & Wenju Cai & Lixin Wu & Agus Santoso & Guojian Wang & Zhao Jing & Bolan Gan & Yun Yang & Shujun Li & Shengpeng Wang & Zhaohui Chen & Michael J. McPhaden, 2022. "Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    12. Luke J. Harrington & Kristie L. Ebi & David J. Frame & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2022. "Integrating attribution with adaptation for unprecedented future heatwaves," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-7, May.
    13. Xin-Feng Wei & Wei Yang & Mikael S. Hedenqvist, 2024. "Plastic pollution amplified by a warming climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-3, December.
    14. van Hooff, T. & Blocken, B. & Timmermans, H.J.P. & Hensen, J.L.M., 2016. "Analysis of the predicted effect of passive climate adaptation measures on energy demand for cooling and heating in a residential building," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 811-820.
    15. Claus Doll & Stefan Klug & Riccardo Enei, 2014. "Large and small numbers: options for quantifying the costs of extremes on transport now and in 40 years," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(1), pages 211-239, May.
    16. Pelli, Martino & Tschopp, Jeanne, 2017. "Comparative advantage, capital destruction, and hurricanes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 315-337.
    17. Gautier, Antoine & Wetter, Michael & Sulzer, Matthias, 2022. "Resilient cooling through geothermal district energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    18. Frank A. La Sorte & Alison Johnston & Toby R. Ault, 2021. "Global trends in the frequency and duration of temperature extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-14, May.
    19. Rob Dellink & Michel den Elzen & Harry Aiking & Emmy Bergsma & Frans Berkhout & Thijs Dekker & Joyeeta Gupta, 2009. "Sharing the Burden of Adaptation Financing: An Assessment of the Contributions of Countries," Working Papers 2009.59, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    20. Paavola, Jouni & Adger, W. Neil, 2006. "Fair adaptation to climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 594-609, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heat waves; Climate scenarios; Extreme temperature; CMIP6;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:10:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03618-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.